实体经济流通状况对长期利率影响机制的实证分析——基于美国1959～2010年数据研究

金融危机后的全球性经济刺激政策正在逐步演变为流动性陷阱,外生性因素对货币供求的作用递减,当前很有必要理清货币本质,在实体经济领域对利率的内生形成机制进行研究.本文提出的长期利率模型揭示了实体经济流通状况与长期利率之间的内在关系,并以美国1959～2010年数据为例建立VEC模型和状态空间模型对长期利率的影响机制进行实证分析,结果显示通涨、货币政策等外生因素在短期对利率产生影响,长期中利率受到厂商库存和订单增长率等描述的商品平均流通状况的影响.     

Redistribution through education and other transfer mechanisms

Educational subsidies are frequently justified as a method of altering the income distribution. It is thus natural to compare education to other tax-transfer schemes designed to achieve distributional objectives. While equity-efficiency trade-offs are frequently discussed, they are rarely explicitly treated. This paper creates a general equilibrium model of school attendance, labor supply, wage determination, and aggregate production, which is used to compare alternative redistribution devices in terms of both deadweight loss and distributional outcomes. A wage subsidy generally dominates tuition subsidies across a wide range of fundamental parameters for the economy. Both are generally superior to a negative income tax. With externalities in production, however, there is an unambiguous role for governmental subsidy of education, because it both raises GDP and creates a more equal income distribution.     

ENDOGENOUS CYCLICAL GROWTH WITH A SIGMOIDAL DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS

The model we propose in this paper is an extension of the one described in Freeman et al. [Freeman, S., Hong, D. and Peled, D. (1999) Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments. Review of Economics Dynamics, 2, 403–432]. In our model, we incorporate the process of diffusion of major innovations and analyze macroeconomic effects on consumption, capital and aggregate output. Following Bresnahan and Trajtenberg [Bresnahan, T. and Trajtenberg, M. (1995) General Purpose Technologies: Engines of Growth?. Journal of Econometrics, 65, 83–108.], Helpman [Helpman, E. (ed.) (1998) General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth. MIT Press] and Lipsey et al. [Lipsey, R.G., Carlaw, K. and Bekar, C. (2005) Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long Term Economic Growth. Oxford University Press.] we assimilate major innovations with the emergence of certain GPTs, and we suggest that the diffusion process for these technologies, at a large scale, might follow an S-shaped pattern. The proposed model presents optimum stationary solutions which are cyclical and have a wave dynamic within each cycle. The cycles are characterized by certain co-movements in consumption, R&D investment, capital accumulation and output. Consideration of the innovation diffusion process highlights new aspects of endogenous cycles and long-run growth.     

ENDOGENOUS HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND THE INTERACTION OF FRONTIER AND ADOPTIVE KNOWLEDGE ON GROWTH AND WAGE INEQUALITY

A three-sector, overlapping-generations growth model endogenizes the opportunity cost of human capital formation and the relative skill requirements of invention, innovation, and adoption of general-purpose technologies. As a result, the relative wage of skilled workers is a function of the endogenous ratio of total-to-adoptive knowledge (where the difference in knowledge stocks is frontier knowledge). Comparative statics are examined for the model's seven parameters. Simulations (representing a transition with phases to a more complex level of economic development) are presented for simultaneous exogenous shocks capable of matching (i) observed inverse movements of the relative wage and the detrended relative supply in the USA, (ii) the sharp slowing and recovering US multifactor productivity growth data since the 1970s, and (iii) a reconciliation of data used to support or deny skill-biased technological change as a major force driving up the relative wage since 1980.     

Nonparametric estimation in case of endogenous selection

This paper addresses the problem of estimation of a nonparametric regression function from selectively observed data when selection is endogenous. Our approach relies on independence between covariates and selection conditionally on potential outcomes. Endogeneity of regressors is also allowed for. In the exogenous and endogenous case, consistent two-step estimation procedures are proposed and their rates of convergence are derived. Pointwise asymptotic distribution of the estimators is established. In addition, bootstrap uniform confidence bands are obtained. Finite sample properties are illustrated in a Monte Carlo simulation study and an empirical illustration.     

Financial intermediation,consumption dynamics,and business cycles

The recent financial crisis highlighted the need to deepen our understanding of the impact of the financial intermediation sector on the real economy. We examine the quantitative implications of financial intermediation and firm's financing frictions in explaining the observed cyclical properties of both real and financial variables. We find that a modified version of the financial intermediation framework of Gertler and Karadi (2011) augmented with financing frictions in production does a good job in matching the unconditional moments of financial fluctuations without compromising key real co-movements. Our results are relevant for macro-prudential policy analysis as they underscore the importance of carefully identifying the sources of aggregate fluctuations in models in which financial intermediaries and financial frictions play a non-trivial role.     

Bargaining and exclusivity in a borrower–lender relationship

This paper presents a stylized model of a borrower–lender relationship where funds are gradually invested in a project with uncertain return. We show that an exclusive financing relationship arises endogenously in equilibrium due to initial lender’s superior information on the project’s progress. The analysis also identifies a novel distortionary effect of exclusivity and the consequent loss of future rents on the ex-ante choices of the borrower. When she chooses the amount of funds to be initially invested in the project, the borrower chooses to overinvest making the future rent extraction by the initial lender as costly as possible. We would like to thank Alberto Bisin, Andrew Chen, Boyan Jovanovic, Hideo Konishi, David Mauer, Efe Ok, Mike Riordan, Charles A. Wilson, and seminar participants at Society of Economic Design 2002 meetings in New York and Southern Methodist University for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

要素质量、中间产品质量提升与后发经济收敛

扩展的要素禀赋理论包括要素数量和要素质量两个维度,它们对后发经济收敛的机理是不一样的。鉴于要素质量直接引入的困难,文章借鉴中间品投入模型,将要素质量的增加转化为中间产品质量的提升,通过内生经济增长模型的推导发现,要素质量,尤其是以人口基数或者人力资本为主体的要素质量成为后发国家或地区经济发展的核心,后发国家或地区要注意培育人力资本,提升技术基础,创造良好的创新环境,降低创新成本,注重经济发展信心的培育,正确引导消费偏好,以加快经济收敛。     

市场资本介入政府投资项目的制度内生分析

本文将行政(部门或地方)决策者和市场投资主体作为参与方,尝试建立以双方自愿参与为条件的政府投资项目制度内生模型。通过考察影响政府投资项目操作形式选择的具体因素,构建计量估计表达式,以电力行业为背景分析可能出现的投资制度安排均衡形态,并用样本数据检验了制度创生过程中可能的影响因素及显著性。检验结果表明,未能拒绝参与方所选择的投资制度安排内生影响因素主要假说。