我国开放式股票基金的择时选股能力研究

开放式基金的择时选股能力评价作为基金绩效评价的重要内容之一,直接影响基金投资者和基金管理公司等利益相关主体的决策行为.运用国际上成熟的基金评价模型、最新数据,对我国股票型开放式基金的择时选股能力进行实证研究的结果表明:我国基金经理专业能力较差,经营管理水平一般,并未通过其良好的选股和择时能力来实现基金收益.应采取完善证券市场结构、加强对基金从业人员的培训、强化投资风险意识等措施,提高我国股票型基金的择时选股能力.     

Spatial competition with endogenous location choices: An application to discount retailing

This paper examines the importance of geographical differentiation in store location decisions of firms in the retail discount industry. Using a novel data set that includes the store locations and accompanying market conditions for all stores belonging to the Wal-Mart, Kmart, and Target chains, we study the factors that influence the entry and location decisions of these firms. The model involves an incomplete information game between the three players where each firm has private information about its own profitability. A key feature of our modeling approach is that it permits asymmetries across firms in the impact of exogenous market characteristics and competitive interaction effects. Variations in the exogenous firm specific characteristics, such as the distances from the market to firms’ headquarters and the nearest distribution centers, serve as exclusion restrictions and provide the source for model identification. Parameter estimates of the payoff functions are used to predict the equilibrium market structure under a variety of market conditions that provide insights into the competitive landscape of the industry. Results show that all firms exert a strong negative impact on competitors when they are in close proximity, but the effect decreases with distance to rivals suggesting strong returns to spatial differentiation in this industry. Target stores fare well under competition except when these competitors are in close proximity. Wal-Mart’s supercenter format is found to be the most formidable player as it substantially impacts competitors even at a large distance. We also find significant asymmetries across players in their response to market conditions and competition interactions.

好消息、坏消息与季报预约披露的时间选择--管理层的组合动机与信息操作

本文构建回归模型并依据中国上市公司数据进行假设检验,考察公司业绩组合(好消息与坏消息的组合)、业绩差异与一季度季报预约披露的时间选择之间的关系以及一季度季报预约披露时间的信息内涵.实证研究显示,由于一季度季报和上年年报均要求在4月30日之前披露的特殊性,上市公司管理层在信息披露的过程中可能存在组合动机与信息操作行为,一季度季报预约披露的时间选择可能关键取决于上年年报和一季度季报预约披露的好消息或坏消息带来的积极影响或消极影响的组合与权衡.     

产业进入时机研究述评

进入时机选择是现实企业在市场进入战略中一种至关重要的决策,而作为跨研究领域的热点论题,产业进入时机的研究也日趋成熟。基于文献回顾,梳理了产业进入主题的研究发展脉络和重要观点,从进入次序效应的内在作用机制和影响因素出发,强调企业在产业进入决策中关于进入时机和竞争策略选择的应用性研究,以使理论探讨更加切合实际。     

基于产品质量策略性行为的进入壁垒研究

本文从产品纵向差异的角度出发,研究了垄断厂商为构建进入壁垒在选择产品质量方面所采取的策略性行为。通过采用一个扩展式博弈,分析了在位者和潜在进入者的质量选择行为所形成的各种产品质量组合及其支付。研究发现,在位者可以通过一部分研发投资,抢先承诺提供多档次质量的产品,填补消费者的需求空间,减少潜在进入者的期望收益,使其做出不进入的决定。所以,在位者在产品质量方面的策略性行为就构成了进入壁垒。     

Transactional and institutional alignment of entry modes in transition economies. A survival analysis of joint ventures and wholly owned subsidiaries in Vietnam

How do partially aligned entry modes predicted through theoretically pluralistic frameworks perform in terms of longevity? We build on transaction costs and neo-institutional economics and use event history method and Vietnamese data on 3835 joint ventures and wholly owned subsidiaries established by foreign firms from 1987 to 2008 to answer this question. We find that survival rates for entry modes that are partially aligned to transactional and institutional factors differ for JV- and WOS-based entries. We provide new evidence for the predictive power of the transactional and institutional approach for entry mode choice, performance, and survival in transition economies.     

政治资本、代际传递、进入与晋升：以公共部门为例

文章利用中共宁夏区委党校培训官员的调研样本实证分析了公共部门内部父母政治资本的代际传递状况,在排除了样本自选择偏误之后,回归结果表明：父母政治资本对进入公平和晋升公平的影响并非全局性的,而是针对特定群体。公务员考试制度的全面推广促进了进入公平,使得进入不公平只存在于那些并非通过公开考试进入公共部门的官员群体之中;晋升不公平则表现出“顶端优势效应”,对于低级别官员并不显著,随着级别的提高,父母政治资本对官员提拔速度的正面效应才相对显著。以上发现表明,利用制度建设削弱政治资本的代际传递仍然具有现实迫切性,只有通过选人必考、任人唯贤才能维护公共部门内部个体发展的机会公平和规则公平。     

LTE系统随机接入过程的实现

从LTE系统底层协议入手,结合具体实现,对随机接入过程进行了详细设计,并对随 机接入过程所涉及的具体问题进行了研究,包括PRACH时频资源的计算、响应信息的时 序接收、上行传输的时序控制以及异常情况下的处理及方案设计,最后利用规范说明与描 述语言(SDL）和树表结合表示法(TTCN)仿真,产生消息顺序图(MSC)。仿真结果表明,该 设计满足协议一致性规范。     

基于进入退出壁垒分析的煤炭企业转型策略研究

煤炭企业转型升级是完成煤炭行业“去产能”目标的重要途径,是实现煤炭企业从低附加值产业链中游向高附加值产业链上下游转移的重要方法。企业在转型过程中受到企业目前所在产业退出壁垒和企业转型目标产业进入壁垒的双重影响。通过静态平衡分析从理论上证明了进入壁垒、退出壁垒强度与企业利润负相关,同时这种影响会随着壁垒强度的提高而减弱,得出需面临高退出壁垒的煤炭企业更倾于向高进入壁垒的产业链上游转产的分析结果,通过相关度分析对结果进行了检验。最后,对实现“去产能”目标和优化煤炭产业结构提出了若干建议。     

Market timing in precious metals is detrimental to value creation

Few number of days accounts for most of the returns delivered by precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium). A passive buy and hold investment strategy in precious metals outperforms market timers who miss the best 5, 10 and 50 days by 51%, 71% and 98%, respectively. Likewise, long-term performance of precious metals is largely determined by the return of few outliers (black swans). Thus, investors should reconsider trying to predict when to be in and out of the precious metals markets and support investing in precious metals ETFs.