浅析辽西城市群发展模式

本文从区域经济的视角,结合辽西城市群的基本情况,对照三种主要的城市群发展模式,对辽西城市群发展模式的选择进行了较为深入的剖析。希望通过本文的研究,对辽西城市群发展模式的决策选择提供一定的借鉴价值。     

扭曲的增值税制及其矫正

与国际通行的增值税制相比,我国增值税制存在着与营业税分立、非全面性、半消费型、税率繁杂、有限出口退税、重复征税等扭曲性,矫正之策是,制定《增值税法》,全面推行营业税改征增值税,全面建立完全消费型增值税,并实行增值税的统一征管。     

改革开放以来影响广东省外贸出口因素的实证分析

本文分析了广东省外贸出口与进口、FDI、出口对象国的经济增长及人民币名义汇率等影响因素的长期均衡关系,然后分析了短期中广东省外贸出口量对各影响因素波动的反应。得出结论:长期中,广东省出口额与外国收入、进口额、人民币名义汇率之间存在着正相关关系,而短期内进口额和人民币名义汇率对出口影响较大。     

An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach

This paper estimates time specific values for China's long-run equilibrium exchange rate and develops measures of the direction and extent of misalignment based on a reduced-form real effective exchange rate (REER) model. An appropriately specified long-run equilibrium model is estimated and tested following Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedures, which is then used to construct an estimated time path for long-run equilibrium exchange rate values.Unit root tests indicated that each series can be considered as I(1) and that there was one cointegrating relationship linking the RMB series with its “fundamentals” – openness, money supply, productivity and government spending – with long-run elasticities of (0.41), (0.97), (0.51) and (0.75), respectively. The estimated error-correction model of REER determination showed that during China's latest exchange rate regime (from 2005:Q3) the RMB was undervalued by an average of 6.7 percent, which is modest compared to related studies.Estimation of the associated short-run error correction model shows that the error correction term has a statistically significant value of 0.85, implying that the actual real effective exchange rates would converge relatively quickly (just over one quarter, on average) towards their long-run equilibrium level in the absence of central bank intervention.     

Category management and consumer choice

This paper shows the results of an exploratory analysis of the structure of a complex product category: Wine. In complex categories, a usual strategy of consumers is the partitioning of alternatives into homogeneous subsets and the sequential eliminations of subsets until a product/brand is chosen from among few homogeneous alternatives in the last subset. To identify if there is such a kind of strategy and the product attributes involved is of great interest for the retailer. After a discussion of the different modelling alternatives of the choice process, the authors provide an application of the additive trees (ADDTREE) model to explore the hierarchical structure. The ADDTREE results provide a first overview of the competitive market structure of the wine category: competition becomes more intense as the wine category is partitioned by, first, the type of wine criteria and, second, the designation of origin (DO) criteria.     

基于水电工程建设进程的旅游动态开发模式研究——以宜昌市为例

随着水电工程建设的阶段性推进,滨库临坝型城市的旅游资源、交通、市场、政策环境等条件都发生着相应变化,城市旅游业表现出与工程建设进程相互呼应的时间上的同步性、空间上的延展性、功能上的互动性、后续问题的关联性等阶段性规律。以田野调查为主要研究方法,在分析了水电工程建设进程对滨库临坝型城市旅游业作用机制的基础上,总结了滨库临坝型城市旅游业发展的演进规律,阐述了该类城市在不同阶段的本色式、彰显式、多元式等旅游动态开发模式,并阐述了转型期旅游开发的新趋势：创意式、可持续式旅游开发模式。     

Measurement of Advertising Effectiveness： How Different Theories About the Relative Importance of Sales vs. Recall/Recognition vs. Emotion Were Popular

The aim of this chapter is to run through the history of marketing research applied to measuring the effectiveness of advertising and deepen in all those theories that have shed light on this aspect and have influenced subsequent theories and models. This historical review offers the opportunity of knowing the past and understanding better the present of market research applied to advertising. It is a chronological analysis to present day, which introduces the development of the explanatory models for the functioning of advertising and the theoretical and empirical contributions in this area.     

Effects of Free Trade on Women and Immigrants: CAFTA and the Rural Dominican Republic

We construct a disaggregated rural economywide model with a focus on gender and immigration as well as on the allocation of time to wage work, household production activities, and housework (reproduction). We use this model to simulate the impacts of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) on rural incomes and welfare in the Dominican Republic. We find that elimination of agricultural import tariffs hurts both agricultural and non-agricultural households, via adverse factor-market effects, but impacts vary substantially by workers’ gender and country of origin. Females and Haitian immigrants tend to fare better than Dominican males, and there are ramifications for both market and non-market activities.     

CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF JUMPS IN ASSET PRICES

Constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to limit downside risk while retaining some upside potential by maintaining an exposure to risky assets equal to a constant multiple of the cushion , the difference between the current portfolio value and the guaranteed amount. Whereas in diffusion models with continuous trading, this strategy has no downside risk, in real markets this risk is nonnegligible and grows with the multiplier value. We study the behavior of CPPI strategies in models where the price of the underlying portfolio may experience downward jumps. Our framework leads to analytically tractable expressions for the probability of hitting the floor, the expected loss, and the distribution of losses. This allows to measure the gap risk but also leads to a criterion for adjusting the multiplier based on the investor's risk aversion. Finally, we study the problem of hedging the downside risk of a CPPI strategy using options. The results are applied to a jump-diffusion model with parameters estimated from returns series of various assets and indices.     

Valuing medieval annuities: Were corrodies underpriced?

Medieval bishops condemned and restricted the sale of corrodies (a type of annuity), partly on the grounds of their perceived unprofitability. The available data on the profitability of corrodies is limited and little analysed, and the episcopal condemnation of corrodies has been adopted by modern researchers. After recognising the difficulties, this paper applies an annuity pricing model to study corrody pricing. Given various assumptions, contrary to the established view, it is argued that the sale of corrodies was financially profitable for institutions. Finally, some reasons are considered for the negative attitude of contemporary and historical opinion towards the sale of corrodies.