利率市场化背景下银行系统性危机的实证研究

从利率市场化的国际经验来看,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,其实施过程都容易导致不同程度的银行业危机。采用1973~2012年42个国家的面板数据,对利率市场化背景下的银行业危机进行的实证研究表明：利率市场化的推进将增加银行系统性危机发生的机率,特别是在存款利率市场化阶段,而严格的银行监管是抑制银行系统危机发生的有效方法;显性存款保险制度的设立无助于利率市场化后银行系统性风险的防范,甚至有可能会增加危机发生的机率;资本账户开放下进行利率市场化会增加银行系统危机发生的机率。利率市场化进程中允许开设民营银行不会增加银行系统危机的发生机率。     

市场培育视角下科技协同创新模式的构建与完善

科技创新是创新驱动发展战略的核心,创新驱动发展战略的实施需要先进的科技创新模式支撑。由于目前我国科技创新市场发育还不完善,科技创新成果转化率、原创性以及经济增长效应均较低,尤其是现有科技创新模式忽视创新成果的原创性及转化率,且与国家发展战略的契合度不高,有效科技创新不足成为制约创新驱动发展战略实施的主要因素之一。从科技市场培育角度来看,应基于创新驱动发展战略理念,构建以企业、高校和科研院所、政府为主体的科技协同创新模式,转变创新主体观念和行为,完善创新成果交易市场,强化创新人才培养和管理,为创新驱动发展战略的顺利实施提供充分有力的科技创新支撑。     

上市公司可持续增长率偏差的实证分析

按照可持续增长率进行发展,要求企业全面权衡各方面的契约关系,以稳定的契约结构获取企业的长期增长。但是在现实中由于各种原因,企业不可能完全按照可持续增长率进行增长,出现了可持续增长率偏差。本文通过对我国A股市场的上市公司在1997-2005年的可持续增长情况进行分析,研究了我国上市公司可持续增长率偏差的主要影响因素及其对未来经营业绩的影响。研究结果表明：影响可持续增长率偏差的主要因素包括资产运作效率变动、资本结构的调整、外部权益融资和销售净利率的变化,鼓励政策对企业的可持续增长率偏差并没有显著作用。另外本文还验证了较高的可持续增长率偏差对后期（5年）的业绩提高具有消极作用。     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.     

大城市边缘区土地利用变化与社会经济发展关系分析——以北京市平谷区为例

大城市边缘区是城市化最敏感、变化最大、最迅速的地区,也是土地利用变化最显著的地区,研究大城市边缘区土地利用变化时空过程及其驱动机制,对实现大城市自身可持续发展具有重要意义。该文采用数理统计与综合分析方法,对北京市平谷区土地利用动态变化及其与GDP、产业结构、消费结构、城镇化以及人口等社会经济发展因素的关系进行了分析。研究结果表明:1996~2004年,平谷区农用地面积持续减少,其中耕地减少较多,园地增长速度较快,林地略有减少。建设用地持续增加,其中交通用地增长速度最快。平谷区的土地利用变化与经济增长、产业升级、城镇化发展、消费结构变化以及人口增长具有显著的相关性,社会经济发展是土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。节约集约土地,提高土地利用效率,调整土地利用结构,促进产业优化升级,保障服务首都北京功能和平谷区域社会经济发展成为平谷区土地利用的必然要求。     

Riding the swaption curve

We conduct an empirical analysis of the term structure in the volatility risk premium in the fixed income market by constructing long-short combinations of two at-the-money straddles for the four major swaption markets (USD, JPY, EUR and GBP). Our findings are consistent with a concave, upward-sloping maturity structure for all markets, with the largest negative premium for the shortest term maturity. The fact that both delta–vega and delta–gamma neutral straddle combinations earn positive returns that seem uncorrelated suggests that the term structure is affected by both jump risk and volatility risk. The results seem robust for macroeconomic announcements and the specific model choice to estimate the risk exposures for hedging.     

以廉政勤政简政为指引全面提升政府公信水平

近年来,我国政府公信力建设取得了巨大的成就,但也存在政策之间的协调性和行政体制的结构矛盾十分突出、政府公共服务和信息公开不能满足民众要求等问题. 要全面提升政府公信水平,就要深化行政体制改革,建立政府信用水平评价体系,推进政府信息透明化,完善政府对自身债务的管理,积极引导网络舆情.     

Liquidity risk and policy options

On the basis of a liquidity management model, liquidity risks, defined as the probability of payment failures in a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) payment system, may either stem from liquidity management inefficiencies or insufficient cash balances. I will show that penalties charged on the amount of payment failures minimise liquidity risks without interfering with the bank’s technology preferences. I will instead show that liquidity requirements, although as effective as penalties to contain the risk of liquidity shortage, may distort the bank’s technology preferences and cannot stem liquidity management inefficiencies. I will also show that liquidity risks within RTGS payment systems are potentially smaller because they depend more on the liquidity management efficiency than on the randomness of cash inflows and outflows.     

Exchange rate contagion in Latin America

A regular vine copula approach is implemented for testing for contagion among the exchange rates of the six largest Latin American countries. Using daily data from June 2005 through April 2012, we find evidence of contagion among the Brazilian, Chilean, Colombian and Mexican exchange rates. However, there are interesting differences in contagion during periods of large exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Our results have important implications for the response of Latin American countries to currency crises originated abroad.     

Japanese economy and the its exchange rate from 1985 to 2010

The paper tries to analyze the interaction between Japanese exchange rate and its domestic economy from 1985 to 2010. By employing the Mundell-Fluming model, the paper is designed to shed light on the factors that determined the exchange rate and the impact of the exchange rate on the economy, the theoretical result of the model will be enhanced with the help of graphs and statistical numbers, by the end of the paper; it concludes the important policy implication for the monetary policy and exchange rate policy.