预测中国宏观经济变量:专家与模型的组合预测

本文使用组合预测方法,探究以“朗润预测”为代表的专家预测以及计量模型对于中国宏观经济变量的预测效果,并研究对不同预测进行组合预测是否有助于改进预测效果。本文发现,对我国CPI和GDP的增长率,专家预测效果总体上优于模型预测。从原因看,一方面,专家在预测时已经考虑了计量模型的预测信息;另一方面,在经济出现“拐点”的时期,专家通过对实际经济环境和政策的把握,得出更准确的经济预测。组合预测有助于提升预测精度,对专家预测进行组合得到的预测效果优于大多数的专家预测,“模型—专家”组合预测的效果也优于所有的模型和大部分专家预测。     

TMT strategic consensus in Mexican companies

Scholars show continuing interest in top management teams (TMT). This line of research emphasizes their importance for organizational success. This study reveals a clear challenge for researchers; to better understand the relationships between TMT characteristics and firm performance, researchers should consider the firm's environment. Results suggest that environmental complexity moderates the relationship between TMT strategic consensus and performance in Mexican companies. Interestingly, the results contradict initial expectations; lower levels of consensus correlate with higher performance in simple, more than in complex environments. Higher levels of consensus correlate with higher performance, in complex environments.     

一种新的频率规划方法

本文针对目前频率规划中存在的问题，提出了利用专家系统和改进遗传算法及分层技术等来克服手工频率规划过于烦琐和电子地图要求极高及频带紧张的障碍，从而在缺少准确电子地图的情况下，借助专家的经验和知识同时利用改进的优化算法亦能给出较准确的频率规划方案。同时提出了改进的模糊似然推理方法。此外我们开发了智能多层频率规划ＣＡＤ软件包，并给出仿真结果。     

Consensus among Economics Teachers from Transition Economies

The authors analyze the economic opinions of teachers and economists from the former Soviet Union who participated in economic education programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education under the auspices of the National Council on Economic Education from 1995–2001. They sought to determine the level of consensus on economic topics among the participants, and then analyzed their concordance with U.S. economists. They conclude that there is a significant level of consensus among the participants from the former Soviet Union, but this consensus is often at odds with the views of American economists.     

谈如何提高油田企业标准编写质量

为了提高油田企业标准编写质量,结合目前油田标准化工作中的实际情况,对标准编写中存在的问题进行分析,并提出建立相应机制,促进油田企业标准编写质量的提高。     

Anchors in Rough Seas: Understanding Category Spanning as a Source of Market Coordination

Prior research has deemed products that span market categories a source of cognitive and institutional disruption. Portraying spanning products as purely disruptive elements, however, does not consider their large presence in markets and, consequently, the fact that producers and consumers continue to coordinate their activities on established categories despite pervasive spanning. Our paper addresses this gap by focusing on commercial success as an important condition under which spanning products, rather than being a source of disruption, sustain market coordination. From the producer side, an increasing number of commercially successful products spanning a focal category stimulates mimicry. From the consumer side, this mimicry, net of the overall level of spanning observed in the category, improves consensus. We test these arguments by focusing on the styles that map electronic music as the established categories of a market. Empirical analyses lend support to our hypotheses.     

An assessment of ordinary landscapes by an expert and by its residents: Landscape values in areas of intensive agricultural use

The expert-based approach to landscape assessment developed in North America during the 1970s is still largely used in planning. It has proved its usefulness for the protection and the management of landscapes with remarkable visual attributes. However, facing growing social demands for the quality of surroundings, ordinary landscapes also raise great challenges for planning. But, to what extent is the expert-based approach to landscape assessment able to capture the value of these ordinary landscapes? What might be the more appropriate method for this purpose? This paper addresses these questions through an empirical research project in areas of intensive agricultural use in Quebec (Canada). The aim of this research was to measure and compare the ability of an expert-based approach and of a lay people-based approach, also named experiential approach, to capture the most valued components of ordinary landscapes. These methods were applied to two study areas. The first one has no recognised landscapes in any planning document while the second one has recognised landscapes for regional tourism. Forty-six inhabitants and an expert were invited to evaluate the landscapes of the study areas. The results have allowed comparison of the components valued by the expert and by the inhabitants as well as the criteria used in the assessment. They revealed differences between the expert and the lay people assessment. For inhabitants, the value of ordinary landscapes is based on a set of criteria related to emotion, to everyday experience and to their intimate knowledge of places. Thus, the formal visual criteria used by the expert appear to be clearly less important in the evaluation by lay people. As the expert perspective in landscape assessment is more closely associated to the experience of an individual which cross the territory (ex.: tourist), this paper concludes that to capture the value of ordinary landscapes in a planning perspective, a combination of approaches is necessary.     

Responding Public Demand for Assurance of Genetically Modified Crops: Case from Japan

Genetically modified (GM) crops provide a classic example of risk characterised with uncertainty and ambiguity. This article analyses the risk management of GM crops in Japan as a case and investigates how the Japanese government has responded to the growing public demand for safety assurance of new agricultural and food varieties. It argues that, while the government realised the need to respond to public reluctance in consuming GM food by adopting more resilient and discursive management, it has faced a dilemma to incorporate the new type of approach into conventional risk assessment. This tension was reflected in the process and policy outputs of the consensus conference on GM crops, which was ambiguously placed in the risk management process. This article shows the dynamics of opting for policies to manage scientifically uncertain risks in particular socio‐political and institutional contexts. Such understanding can suggest ways towards enhanced policy debates.     

虚拟社会管理中大学生网络舆情的监控与引导

随着互联网的迅猛发展,网络虚拟社会已经渗透到现实社会的各个角落。因此,虚拟社会管理越来越受到重视。在虚拟关系管理中,大学生网络舆情的监控与引导是一个重要方面。大学生网络舆情除了具有一般网络舆情的基本特征外,还具有影响广、情绪化、突发性等独特特征。对大学生网络舆情进行监控与引导,需要收集舆情信息并进行分析研判,了解舆情的产生及演化机制并进行安全预警与引导。