On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

基于共识模型和前景理论的输水工程运行安全风险评价

为了评估输水工程运行安全中防汛度汛不及时、地基缺陷、应急反应不及时、冰期输水不畅、异常渗透和水质安全出现问题6种关键风险因素的优先级,采用基于共识模型和前景理论改进的故障模式及影响分析法(FMEA),用语言分布评价法评估风险因子信息,用信任关系作为共识调整系数修改共识模型,用前景理论对故障模式的风险进行优先级排序。研究结果表明,异常渗漏的风险最大,冰期输水不畅风险最小,与实际情况相一致;并通过与其他改进的FMEA方法比较,验证了排序结果的可行性和有效性。     

ELECTRE TRI for Groups with Imprecise Information on Parameter Values

ELECTRE TRI is a well-known method to assign actions to predefined ordered categories, considering multiple criteria. Using this method requires setting many parameters, which is often a difficult task. We consider the case where a group of Decision Makers (DMs) is unsure of which values each parameter should take, which may result from insufficient, imprecise or contradictory information, as well as from lack of consensus among the group members. In a framework where DMs provide constraints bounding and interrelating the parameter values, rather than fixing precise figures, we discuss the problem of finding the best and worst category that each action may attain.     

A neural network unification

We study the relation between the asymptotic behaviour of synchronous Boltzmann machines and synchronous Hopfield networks. More specifically, we consider the relation between the pseudo consensus function that is used in analyzing Boltzmann machines and the energy function that is used in the study of Hopfield networks. We show that for small values of the control parameter, synchronous Boltzmann machines and synchronous Hopfield networks compute global respectively local maxima of the same function.     

To agree or not to agree? A meta-analytical review of strategic consensus and organizational performance

The premise underlying most of the research on strategic consensus is that a higher degree of consensus has a positive impact on organizational performance. Empirical studies, however, have produced inconsistent results for the strength and direction of this relationship, as well as for the role of potential moderators. With this meta-analysis, we provide empirical support for a positive effect of strategic consensus on organizational performance, and offer evidence for the existence of several moderators of the aforementioned relationship, which we then discuss as fruitful avenues for future research. This study enhances our understanding of this important strategy process construct and benefits managerial practice by discussing means for improving the realization and implementation of strategies.     

One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a large macroeconomic model to create forecasts of various important macroeconomic variables. The outcomes of this model are usually filtered by experts, and it is the expert forecasts that are made available to the general public. In this paper we re-create the model forecasts for the period 1997-2008 and compare the expert forecasts with the pure model forecasts. Our key findings from the first time that this unique database has been analyzed are that (i) experts adjust upwards more often; (ii) expert adjustments are not autocorrelated, but their sizes do depend on the value of the model forecast; (iii) the CPB model forecasts are biased for a range of variables, but (iv) at the same time, the associated expert forecasts are more often unbiased; and that (v) expert forecasts are far more accurate than the model forecasts, particularly when the forecast horizon is short. In summary, the final CPB forecasts de-bias the model forecasts and lead to higher accuracies than the initial model forecasts.     

Analyzing prospects of portable fuel cells with an expert opinion study

Fuel cell technology is becoming a significant option as an energy technology. Attracting significant research funding, industry research and development (R&D), and commercial anticipation different fuel cell technologies are indicating potential as viable products. One of the anticipated applications of the technology is portable fuel cells. Ranging from small back-up power systems to small micro watt solutions portable fuel cells have been widely demonstrated but lacking widespread commercial exploitation. This paper presents the prospects of portable fuel cells which resulted from a Delphi study.     

Expert reports in Australian takeovers: fees and quality

Target firms in Australian takeovers are required to commission the preparation of an independent expert report in circumstances where there is a perceived conflict of interest with the bidder. As approximately half of these reports are prepared by firms with which the target has other business dealings, concern has been expressed over the quality of these reports due to the suggestion that such reports are provided at lower fees. We examine the 191 independent expert reports provided in all 649 Australian takeover bids initiated in the period 1990 to 2000 inclusive. Using an expert-fee model, we find that the fees for reports by experts with other business dealings with the target are not lower than those of unrelated experts. In addition, the results indicate that experts with other dealings with the target provide reports with a significantly smaller valuation range, consistent with these reports being of higher, rather than lower, quality. Our findings are inconsistent with the U.S. and New Zealand experience of prohibiting audit firms from providing valuation advice in takeovers.     

Impact of intelligent decision aids on expert and novice decision-makers' judgments

Businesses have invested tremendous resources into intelligent decision aid development. A good match between user and aid may improve the expert decision‐maker's decision quality. However, novices may be prone to poorer decision‐making if intelligent decision aids are more expert than the user. The present paper provides an empirical test of the impact of decision aids on subjects with differential expertise levels. The results support the contention that intelligent decision aids aggravate bias in novices’ decision‐making but mitigate bias in experts’ decision‐making processes. Intelligent decision aids may be best viewed as complements to expert decision‐makers during complex problem analysis and resolution.     

Strategic consensus mapping: A new method for testing and visualizing strategic consensus within and between teams

Research on strategic consensus focuses primarily on the extent of agreement among team members regarding organizational strategy. It does not include elements such as the content of the agreement, between‐group consensus, or the significance of differences in consensus (e.g., for evaluating the effectiveness of strategic interventions). We propose a new analytical approach, Strategic Consensus Mapping, that provides a comprehensive analysis of strategic consensus within and between groups and that includes intuitive and easy‐to‐understand visualizations. This approach offers researchers the necessary tools for integrative theory building in strategic consensus, as well as in the broader managerial and organizational cognition domain. Using a case example, we illustrate the proposed methods for a multidimensional, multilevel, and longitudinal analysis of strategic consensus. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.