Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

中国省级税制结构变动的主导动因——基于面板门限模型的检验

国际经济一体化和国内政策调整主导了税制结构变化.政策制定者若顺应税制结构一般演变规律相应进行调整将会实现社会和谐发展,调整应同时兼顾国际化带来的冲击.从长期来看,经济发展对税制结构的作用程度减弱.若不存在冲击波动,税制结构将趋于稳定;税收来源的多元化和税收收入的指数化有利于降低税制结构波动程度.因此,开征财产税,实现社会保障的费改税,建构多元化且指数化的税收收入体系是我国中长期税制改革的方向.     

Increasing the Effectiveness of Export Assistance Programs

Abstract

This study focuses on the export assistance needs of small and medium-sized firms in the California EnviroTech industry. The objectives of this study are to: (1) provide public sector assistance providers research-based recommendations to increase the effectiveness of their export assistance programs to the EnviroTech industry; and (2) promote the advantages of a single industry study as the basis for providing public sector export assistance.     

新疆喀什地区外向型经济发展：优势、障碍与政策建议

喀什地区地处祖国西部边陲，具有发展外向型经济的资源、区位、人文和政策等优势。本文在调研①的基础上，对喀什地区外向型经济发展现状和障碍进行了分析，从国家和喀什地方政府两个层面提出了喀什地区加快外向型经济发展的政策建议。     

Influences of Managerial Drivers on Export Sales Units’ Performance of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises

ABSTRACT

This report offers a contribution to the theories related to firms' export performance. Job satisfaction and behavioral and outcome performance of export managers have received attention in export literature. However, the relationships between export managers’ rewards system and the level of export managers’ morale with export managers’ job satisfaction, behavioral and outcome performance, and export sales units’ performance of small and medium-size enterprises have not thoroughly been examined, tested, or validated. A new model is developed based on export managerial psychology theory, which integrates two constructs, the export managers’ rewards and level of morale, as critical variables affecting export performance. The research findings suggest that four connected relationships in a PLS model are positive, significant, and substantial. Particularly, managers’ financial and nonfinancial rewards influence managers’ level of morale, which in turn affects managers’ behavioral performance, and managers' behavioral performance influences managers’ outcome performance, which, finally, affects firms’ export performance.     

Determining an optimal hierarchical forecasting model based on the characteristics of the data set: Technical note

The efficient flow of goods and services involves addressing multilevel forecast questions, and careful consideration when aggregating or disaggregating hierarchical estimates. Assessing all possible aggregation alternatives helps to determine the statistically most accurate way of consolidating multilevel forecasts. However, doing so in a multilevel and multiproduct supply chain may prove to be a very computationally intensive and time-consuming task. In this paper, we present a new, two-level oblique linear discriminant tree model, which identifies the optimal hierarchical forecast technique for a given hierarchical database in a very time-efficient manner. We induced our model from a real-world dataset, and it separates all historical time series into the four aggregation mechanisms considered. The separation process is a function of both the positive and negative correlation groups' variances at the lowest level of the hierarchical datasets. Our primary contributions are: (1) establishing a clear-cut relationship between the correlation metrics at the lowest level of the hierarchy and the optimal aggregation mechanism for a product/service hierarchy, and (2) developing an analytical model for personalized forecast aggregation decisions, based on characteristics of a hierarchical dataset.     

A model of medium term exchange rate forecast in an open economy The case of the mexican peso

Keynes (1930) and Samuelson (1965) proposals open the possibility of matching predictability and efficiency, as evidenced by the seminal study by Fisher (1930). Recent findings suggest that the foreign exchange market gradually incorporates relevant information allowing the formation of prices in a rational manner but not randomly. Models of exchange rate by term based on asset valuation suggest that the inclusion of risk in the spot rate increases the degree of predictability. The results show that after incorporating an accurate measure of risk, predictability of medium term foreign exchange rate increases.     

Trade cost reduction and foreign direct investment

While the “proximity-concentration” theory suggests a positive relationship between trade cost and foreign direct investment (FDI), there is ample evidence showing a negative relationship between them. We show that the possibility of exporting back to the home country from a host country, which is often referred as “home-country export platform FDI”, may generate a negative relationship between trade cost and FDI. Market demand and product market competition may play important roles in this respect.     

基于马尔柯夫分析的计算机预测和决策应用

从DSS应用现状出发,介绍了马尔柯夫分析的定义和数学原理,阐述了马尔柯夫分析的过程和预测的基本步骤,利用Excel设计了进行市场占有率预测的应用模型,并进行了仿真预测和决策分析。测试表明,应用模型简便通用,操作方便,提高了预测的计算精度和效率。     

配件物流中产品不同生命周期的配件库存预测

研究同一产品在不同生命周期对配件的库存预测方法,生命周期包括新产品,成熟产品,产品生命后周期。其中对成熟产品,产品生命后周期的配件预测给出了预测公式。