Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

民营企业出口对湖南经济增长影响的实证分析

近年来,湖南民营企业出口贸易的快速发展,为湖南经济的增长做出了积极的贡献。本文采用计量经济模型实证分析了湖南民营企业出口与湖南经济增长的相关性,揭示出湖南民营企业出口对湖南经济增长做出了突出的贡献,并由此提出了扩大湖南民营企业出口的策略。     

技术创新与出口:理论与实证研究的发展

从理论阐释和实证分析两个方面述评技术创新与出口关系的主要观点和相关文献。众多相关文献表明,技术创新活动是一国出口表现的主要驱动力之一,在扩大市场、提升国际竞争力以及增加企业利润方面起着积极的促进作用。     

公司治理与盈利预测的自愿披露

信息披露是上市公司与外部利益相关者沟通联系的重要渠道,其中的盈利预测又是外部利益相关者决策所需要的重要未来信息之一,因而盈利预测披露成为信息披露中被关注的焦点。同时,公司治理影响着上市公司的信息披露水平,而股权结构是决定公司治理结构与质量的基础性因素,因而公司治理可以通过股权结构的影响来作用于信息披露。     

9308房屋建筑的震害预测方法

随着城市建设的发展和人口密度的增大,地震对人类的危害越来越大,因此,做好房屋建筑震害预测工作,具有重要的现实意义,文章用结构易损性分析方法分别对房屋建筑的几种常见的结构的震害进行了预测分析。     

新疆人口城市化问题研究

运用人口普查资料及其它人口统计数据 ,分析新疆城镇人口过去 50年的变化 ,探究新疆人口城镇化过程的特征和成因 ,并运用数学模型预测未来新疆城镇人口及人口城镇化水平。提出新疆城镇体系发展战略构想及对策     

An exploratory study of operational reasons to budget

Budgets are used widely but criticized, mainly for performance evaluation reasons. We find that organizations regard budgets as more important for planning and control than evaluation, thus proposing a rationale for their continued use irrespective of evaluation‐based criticisms. This finding is also important, because most extant budget research focuses on evaluation, suggesting a potential disconnect between budget research and practice. We also find that rolling forecasts are used in tandem with the annual budget in most organizations, and for the same reasons. This was unexpected, as coexistence suggests their adoption for different reasons.     

The Lowest Supply and Demand of Engineering Officers of National Vessels in Taiwan

This article is based on the number of engineering officers from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan, and adopts a 6-year moving average to work out the transition probability of engineering officers and to construct an absorbing Markov Transition Matrix to forecast the terms of seniority and annual supply in each hierarchy. In order to estimate the minimum number of vessels needed, this article also employed the quantity of demand for imported consumer goods from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan and applied a Grey model to predict the annual quantity of demand for imported consumer goods. Furthermore, this article estimated the minimum number of demand for engineering officers according to the minimum number of vessels needed. In addition, this paper used cross-analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of engineering officers in Taiwan and obtained some important results, which can be valuable references for pertinent authorities.     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.