加入WTO后促进企业出口的财税对策

财税政策在促进企业的出口方面一直发挥着重要的作用.加入WTO后,制定政策的制度环境发生了变化.本文考察了与企业出口有关的五个方面.它们分别是:反倾销、出口退税、开拓国际市场、研发与技术创新,及绿色贸易等.对每一个方面,我们在分析其现状、国际经验和WTO规则的基础上提出了相应的财税政策建议.     

A Re–examination of the Effectiveness of the Bankruptcy Process

As an increasing number of companies go bankrupt, society grows concerned with the process's efficacy. In contrast to previous research, we find that relatively healthy companies emerge from bankruptcy as evidenced by their operating and equity performance post bankruptcy. While we find a substantial degree of variation in the forecast accuracy of sales, EBIT and net income, we find that forecast errors are not statistically significant and are smaller than had been thought. We provide evidence to support the argument that the economy's health affects operating and equity outcomes post bankruptcy.     

Market Segmentation and Information Asymmetry in Chinese Stock Markets: A VAR Analysis

This study examines the market segmentation and information asymmetry patterns in Chinese stock markets. The recursive cointegration analysis confirms that each of six markets is not linked with other markets in the long run. Further, the result from data‐determined forecast error variance decomposition clearly shows that foreign investors in the Shanghai B‐share market are better informed than Chinese domestic investors in two A‐share markets and foreign investors in Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets over time. The finding challenges a widespread assumption of less informed foreign investors in the literature, but suggests that foreign investors could be more informed in emerging markets.     

U.S. national security export controls: Implications for global competitiveness of U.S. high-tech firms

U.S. exporters of high-technology, ‘dual-use’ products are competitively disadvantaged in global markets by the complexity, range, and stringency of U.S. national security export controls. This paper demonstrates that fungibility of high technology and lax interpretation of multilateral export control agreements by other advanced countries have made the existing control regime ineffective. It further shows that persistent U.S. restrictiveness of exports in non-critical, widely available goods and technologies may needlessly and permanently erode U.S. firms' competitive position in existing as well as rapidly-opening markets worldwide. The need to revise the notion of national security to include not only military security, but also its complement, economic security, is discussed. The pivotal issue of enforceability of multilateral controls is explored, and corporate strategies for U.S. high-tech firms to achieve export control policy change are suggested.     

Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts

Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to make probability distributions for terminal vital rates, and smooth trajectories are followed over time. We use analysis and examples to show several key differences between these methods: serial correlations in the forecast are much smaller in LT; the variance in LT models of vital rates (especially fertility) is much higher than in RS models that are based on official expert scenarios; trajectories in LT are much more irregular than in RS; probability intervals in LT tend to widen faster over forecast time. Newer versions of RS have been developed that reduce or eliminate some of these differences.     

The economy of Portugal within the European Union: 1990–2002

This article analyzes the impact of the EU on Portugal’s economy, how the EU rules and regulations have affected the country’s policy-making style, and the impact of EU’s transfer of resources. It shows that Portugal has greatly benefitted from joining the EU: the rapid exposure to foreign competition has forced modernization of many sectors; there was a retreat of the state from direct involvement in economic activities and the creation of a number of new export-oriented sectors, and EU transfers were effectively applied in modernizing the country’s infrastructure. However, increased productivity has not improved equity from both an income distribution point of view and from regional income concentration.     

基于泊松分布的兰州冻品市场面积估算

预测在我们的日常生活中起着非常作用,长久以来人们总结并归纳出的定性定量的预测方法很多。文章根据调查方法的特殊性用运概率中的离散和连续型概率方法分别对调查数据进行拟合,进而找到符合数据分布的分布规律并进行预测。     

宜万铁路云雾山隧道溶洞段综合施工技术

云雾山隧道在施工过程中揭示多处大规模岩溶。本文对云雾山隧道溶腔的综合施工技术进行了系统的论述,包括超前地质预报、注浆加固、爆破放水和加强支护等施工技术。该施工技术在该段溶腔的成功应用可为同类型溶腔处理提供经验和借鉴。     

Empirical prediction intervals revisited

Empirical prediction intervals are constructed based on the distribution of previous out-of-sample forecast errors. Given historical data, a sample of such forecast errors is generated by successively applying a chosen point forecasting model to a sequence of fixed windows of past observations and recording the associated deviations of the model predictions from the actual observations out-of-sample. The suitable quantiles of the distribution of these forecast errors are then used along with the point forecast made by the selected model to construct an empirical prediction interval. This paper re-examines the properties of the empirical prediction interval. Specifically, we provide conditions for its asymptotic validity, evaluate its small sample performance and discuss its limitations.