On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

对当前背景下国企工会职能的转变及服务创新的研究

在当前的社会背景下,工会在国企的发展过程中发挥着重要的作用,它在维护员工利益以及推动企业与员工的沟通与联系等方面作出了突出的贡献。随着国有企业的不断改革与创新,时代环境对工会的工作也提出了更高的要求,工会需要进行职能转变以及服务创新。     

国际贸易、技术进步和中国工业行业的生产率增长

内生增长理论认为技术进步是经济增长最为重要的助推力,推动技术进步的力量是对研发的投资和国际贸易的发展。随着经济贸易与信息技术的飞速发展,社会对国际贸易、技术进步的关注程度日渐提升。通过深入分析国际贸易与工业行业生产率之间的关系,可以有针对性地应用有效手段对国际贸易进行调整,使其可以继续带动技术的进步并促进工业行业生产率的提升。基于此,论文探究了我国国际贸易、技术进步与工业行业生产率增长的关系,阐述了国际贸易、技术进步对于工业行业生产率的真实影响。     

我国对外贸易与经济增长的相关性实证研究

随着经济全球化进程的不断加快,对外贸易对于任何一个国家来说都已经成为经济发展的焦点之一。尤其对于自加入WTO以来越来越成为名副其实的"世界工厂"的中国来说,一方面我国正处在经济迅猛增长的关键时期,另一方面对外贸易的依存度一直在不断上升,此时此刻对外贸易与经济增长之间的相关性的研究就更加具有价值。我国应该优化进出口贸易结构,在汇率制度上进行创新,在政策上辅佐支持国际贸易,以使其发挥出对经济增长的促进作用的最好水平。     

The Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalisation on Economic Development: Some Empirical Evidence

This article examines the impact of multilateral trade policy liberalisation on countries' levels of economic development, proxied by their real per capita income. The study is particularly relevant in the current context of growing rhetoric against international trade, which could fuel domestic protectionism and would likely undermine multilateral trade liberalisation. The analysis has been conducted on a panel data set of 155 countries, over non‐overlapping four‐yearly sub‐periods during 1995–2014. The empirical results suggest strong support for the view that multilateral trade liberalisation promotes economic development. Hence, the rise in unilateral protectionist trade measures around the world would likely endanger the prospects of further multilateral trade liberalisation and ultimately undermine countries' prospects of economic development.     

山东省加工贸易企业环保问题研究

探讨了山东省加工贸易企业可持续发展的实证研究。以循环经济为理论基础,采用调查问卷的研究方法,选择山东省济南、青岛、日照的加工贸易企业为实证研究对象,分析了山东省加工贸易企业环保情况及存在的问题,并提出了相关的对策建议,包括加强地方立法、提高科技创新能力以及加强加工贸易企业环境保护的监管力度等方面。     

中国汽车贸易问题的对策研究

随着中国进入WTO,汽车贸易的前景看好,但同时中国的汽车贸易也面临着前所未有的国际竞争,很多贸易问题也显露出来。文章针对贸易中产品质量,产业规模,售后服务等问题,提出加快企业改革,加强自主研发,借鉴别国经验等对策。     

发达国家反倾销贸易保护主义探源——基于经济理性角度的分析

发达国家的反倾销从本质上看具有贸易保护主义的性质.从经济学角度考察,只有针对掠夺性倾销的反倾销才是经济理性的和具有经济效率的;从经济理性角度考察发达国家反倾销目的演化的历程,发现发达国家的反倾销以保证"公平竞争"为名偏离了经济效率的轨道,而反倾销措施直接限制进口的结果使得反倾销必然成为发达国家不顾经济效率而体现其对产业保护关注的工具.     

Matching, search and intermediation with two-sided heterogeneity

This paper analyzes the role played by intermediation in a decentralized market, where trade is carried out through bilateral bargaining, and where the bargaining outcome depends on the process of search for suitable trading partners. To this purpose, a monopolistic intermediary is embedded in a dynamic model of random-matching and two-sided search with heterogeneous agents. It is shown that intermediation might speed up the matching process and might induce separation of the agents’ types, thus enhancing sorting efficiency with respect to a pure search market, where sorting externalities cause multiplicity of equilibria to arise and determine inefficient matching outcomes. Nonetheless, intermediation might also introduce frictions that do not exist in a decentralized market operating in isolation, and this impairs efficiency.      

关于外贸代理制若干问题的探讨

由于我国外贸代理制本身所具有的特点,再加上有关法律、法规不完善、不明确等方面的原因,外贸代理实务中产生了诸多法律问题,文中就这方面的问题作出了一些探讨。