Human capital and economic development

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship between TFP growth and schooling accumulation. The model fits the data on country populations, per capita incomes, human capital, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy and conditional life expectancy.     

Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.     

The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: The Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area*

We show how a simple model with sign restrictions can be used to identify symmetric and asymmetric supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in an estimated two‐country structural VAR for the UK and Euro area. The results can be used to deal with several issues that are relevant in the optimal currency area literature. We find an important role for symmetric shocks in explaining the variability of the business cycle in both economies. However, the relative importance of asymmetric shocks, being around 20% in the long run, cannot be ignored. Moreover, when we estimate the model for the UK and US, the degree of business cycle synchronization seems to be higher. Finally, we confirm existing evidence of the exchange rate being an independent source of shocks in the economy.     

Investment in the absence of property rights; the role of incumbency advantages

In many situations the individuals who can generate some output must enter a contest for appropriating this output. This paper analyses the investment incentives of such agents and the role of incumbency advantages in the contest. Depending on the advantages, an increase in the productivity of the investment can decrease or increase the amount of investment. The results are applied to autocrats’ investment behavior and job specific investment in organizations.     

Heuristic learning and the discovery of specialization and exchange

I develop and calibrate an agent-based model of boundedly rational, adaptive agents in a two-good production and exchange economy to replicate human-subject outcomes in the same eight-person experimental economy. To test agents’ ability to capture human behavior, I extend the model and use its output to make predictions about a second experimental environment in which the group of eight agents is slowly constructed by merging smaller groups. This environment improves human-subject performance in the specialization and exchange task, and commensurate improvement emerges for some parameterizations of the agent-based model. This iterative process yields incremental improvement of decision-level theories about economic discovery.     

Resolvable semi-balanced incomplete split-block designs

A method for constructing some new incomplete split-block designs with desirable properties is given. The new class of the designs is characterized with respect to the general balance property. Moreover, the efficiency factors of the designs proposed are given.Received: July 2003 / Revised: November 2003     

10kV配电网馈线自动化发展与现状分析

文章结合配电自动化的概况,对馈线自动化以及电压型馈线自动化设备的实现进行了分析与介绍,并对10 kV配电网馈线自动化的现状以及改造目的做了阐述。     

When does FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence from 17 transition market economies

We use rich firm-level data and national input–output tables from 17 countries over the 2002–2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, institutional environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm’s distance to the technological frontier, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.