基于国际视角的股票市场价格行为比较研究

本文以中美英等8个国家的股票市场指数序列为研究对象,分析股市的收益分布特征、杠杆性、高风险高收益性和随机性特征。然后,对上述指标进行标准化,用分层聚类方法进行综合比较。结果表明,新兴市场与成熟市场存在明显差异,中国、阿根廷和俄罗斯的股票市场与其他成熟市场相似性较低。     

WAGNER'S LAW: AN ECONOMETRIC TEST FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1960‐2006

The main objective for this paper is to test Wagner's law by analysing the causal relationships between real government expenditure and real income for South Africa for the period 1960‐2006. The paper tests the long‐run relationship between the two variables using the autoregressive distributive lag approach to cointegration suggested by Pesaran et al. We use the Granger non‐causality test procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto, which uses a vector autoregression model to test for the causal link between the two. Evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long‐run relationship between government expenditure and income. However, support for Wagner's law would require unidirectional causality from income to government expenditure. Therefore, cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner's law, but not sufficient. This research does find a long‐run relationship between real per capita government expenditure and real per capita income. Results for the short‐run causality find bidirectional causality. On the basis of empirical results in this paper, one may tentatively conclude that Wagner's law finds no support in South Africa.     

关于可靠性增长试验计划曲线的绘制

计划增长曲线是编制可靠性增长计划的一个重要工具,是确保可靠性增长满足要求的速率进展的一个重要因素。描述了对可靠性增长试验计划曲线绘制方法,包括增长目标确定、计划曲线起始点的确定、增长率确定、总试验时间确定等。     

Time series test of nonlinear convergence and transitional dynamics

This paper revisits the income convergence hypothesis by using the nonlinear unit root test of Kapetanios et al. [Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and A. Snell, 2003. Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics 112, 359–379.]. Out of the 12 OECD income gaps in which nonlinearity has been detected, two cases of long-run converging and four cases of catching up are found.     

山东省公路运输与经济增长的协整分析

本文运用协整检验、误差修正模型及Granger因果关系检验对山东省公路运输和GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:①公路运输与GDP之间存在长期的协整关系;②公路运输的短期波动对GDP有显著的正影响;③两者不具有因果关系。     

中国基础产业市场投资的影响因素分析

本文以中国为背景,研究影响基础产业市场投资的因素。实证研究表明,我国基础产业市场投资符合凯恩斯投资理论,即投资与利率成反比,但相关性较弱;与预期利润成正比,相关性较强。促进基础产业市场投资的良性发展,应保持国民经济持续发展,保持基础产业投资的稳定性,同时深化金融体制改革,进一步强化利率对基础产业投资的市场调节作用。     

人民币均衡汇率研究中的计量错误及其纠正

为了更加客观地评估人民币汇率水平,更科学地对待人民币升值的问题,本文指出了张晓朴(1999)、王维国等(2005年)在人民币均衡汇率研究中一个关键性的计量错误。这个错误导致了他们的所有实证结果不合理。通过模拟,本文纠正了这个计量错误,重新计算了该样本期内的人民币汇率失调。最后,本文追溯了他们计量错误产生的原因。     

An outlier test for linear processes

In this paper we introduce an outlier test for linear processes. It is assumed that an upper bound for the number of outliers is known which is not too big in relation to the sample size. The test statistic bases on the comparison of the observations with certain predictors. We discuss the asymptotical behaviour of the test statistic under the null hypothesis ‘no outlier’ and derive the asymptotic distribution for the case that the distribution of the squared white noise process belongs to a certain subset of the domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. Especially the most important case in applications, the Gaussian white noise is included.     

Nonlinear regression for unit root models with autoregressive errors

This paper shows that the nonlinear least squares estimator for unit root models has the limiting distribution free of nuisance parameters and is more efficient than the augmented Dickey–Fuller estimator when the sum of coefficients for lagged variables is negative.     

实现试油工程质量的有效控制

根据试油工作在市场化条件下的特点，对建立试油工作的网络化管理模式进行了探讨与尝试，以实现对试油工程质量的有效监控，保障试油工程质量和资料录取质量达到行业标准；阐述了试油监督在试油系统工程质量监控中的重要作用。