开放条件下的财政与货币政策效果分析

引入国际经济部门之后,IS—LM模型扩展为IS—LM—BP模型,财政政策、货币政策的效果或被放大,或被抑制,完全不同于封闭经济情形下的分析。以IS—LM—BP模型为切入点,分别对固定和浮动汇率制度下的财政、货币政策效果进行了分析。     

Supply-side investments: An international analysis of the return and risk relationship in the Travel & Leisure sector

This study investigates supply-side investments in the tourism sector, analysing the return and risk relationship of investments in tourism across several countries. The performance of tourism sector companies listed on the stock exchange, for the top one dozen countries according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) tourism rankings, is investigated by region, across these countries and within each country by comparison to other sectors. Several metrics are used to compare the risk-adjusted returns, over a 15-year period ending March 2007 and sub-periods to check the persistence of performance over time. The results present a strikingly different ranking than those of the WEF. The implications for the flow of investment funds are of importance in a global capital market. Money will flow to those investments with the highest expected returns for a given risk level and this has consequential impacts for economic growth and employment in the tourism sector.     

大城市保障性住房空间布局的社会问题与治理途径

本文研究了北京、上海、南京等五大城市保障性住房空间布局特征,指出大城市保障性住房普遍存在空间选址偏僻、大规模集中建设、配套设施不完善等现实问题.在分析以上问题形成原因的基础上,认为大城市保障性住房集中建设在偏远郊区可能导致社会隔离与排斥加剧、出现城市贫民区与贫困文化、贫困的代际延续与社会风险加剧等一系列社会问题.因此建...     

On the informational content of advice: a theoretical and experimental study

This paper examines the market for advice and the underlying perception that advice is useful and informative. We do this by first providing a theoretical examination of the informational content of advice and then by setting up a series of experimental markets where this advice is sold. In these markets we provide bidders with a demographic profile of the “experts” offering advice.The results of our experiment generate several interesting findings. The raw bid data suggest that subjects bid significantly more for data than they do for advice. Second, in the market for advice there appears to be no consensus as to who are the best advisors although on average economists demand the highest mean price and women suffer a discount. In addition, we find that whether a subject suffers from a representativeness bias in the way he or she processes data has an impact on how he or she bids for advice and on his or her willingness to follow it once offered. Finally, we find that on average people impute a low level of informativeness onto advice, consistent with their bidding behavior for data versus advice.This work was done under grant number SES-0425118 of the National Science Foundation. The authors would like to recognize the Center for Experimental Social Science at New York University for its additional support. We also acknowledge the help of Elizabeth Potamites for her research assistance.     

The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line with leading theories of fiscal cyclicality, we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical fiscal policies. Wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect fiscal cyclicality.     

Visitor perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk: The case of Table Mountain National Park,Cape Town

This paper investigates tourist perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk whilst visiting Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) in Cape Town in June and July 2008. The study examined survey data of 303 domestic and international tourists during their visit to TMNP. A linear regression analysis revealed that although visitors had concerns about their personal safety they are still likely to return to TMNP and recommend it to other people. In addition, visitor attitudes towards risk did not influence perceptions of crime-safety and its effect on their intentions to revisit or recommend TMNP. The results also show that respondent's individual characteristics such as age, nationality, and purpose of visit influenced their perceptions of crime-safety. Perceptions that TMNP is unsafe tended to increase with respondent's age. Respondents on holiday were more likely to perceive TMNP as safer than those on business or visiting friends and relatives. The study's findings add to the literature by offering more insight on tourist perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk and their impact on tourist behaviour. Various tourist-crime prevention measures to enhance visitor safety at national parks are also recommended to the tourism industry and law enforcement agencies.     

Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

中国股票市场的三因子时变风险溢价模型研究

Fam和French(1993)提出的三因子模型,已经被国外很多学者证明能较好的解释股票的收益率差异.本文正是在其理论基础上,采用了类似的验证方法来检验中国的股票市场是否能用三因子模型解释,结果发现在大部分行业,它也同样能适用于中国的股票市场.     

A hybrid modeling approach for resilient agri-supply network design in emerging countries: Colombian coffee supply chain

Sustainability and resilience in Agri-Food Supply Chains is a challenging topic of current interest in the research community. Resilience for Agri-Food Supply Chain (AFSC) is the capability of the supply network to manage and mitigate disruptions due to global warming and natural phenomena such as landslides and floods of crops, among others caused by humans. A significant challenge is to design efficient and resilient AFSCs in emerging countries while perishability constraints are considered. A methodology to design an AFSC for emerging countries is addressed in this research. The phenomena that aid in identifying critical aspects of the AFSC affecting their resilience are identified. The former approach combines optimization and simulation schemes by considering resilience metrics related to availability and connectivity. Indeed, the solution approach addresses the uncertainty by using simulation of disruptive events and finding resilient designs using mathematical programming. The proposed framework has been evaluated in a Colombian coffee supply chain. The obtained results show the efficiency of the proposed scheme to design AFSCs and allow the practitioners to measure, predict, compare, and improve the level of resilience of their supply chains (SCs).     

亟待发展的建设工程保险

建筑工程保险是建筑工程项目,风险管理的有效手段之一,以交纳工程保险费为代价将工程风险转移给专业的风险承担者－保险公司,本文综合介绍了建筑工程保险的特征、作用,并结合我国工程保险的实际,对推广建筑工程保险制度进行了简要的探讨。