基于经济增长不确定性的能源消费总量控制

将能源消费控制在一个合理的水平对于我国实现能源与经济、环境协调可持续发展具有重大的战略意义。简要分析了我国实施能源消费总量控制的必要性,从产业结构调整、能源生产方式变革、能源利用方式变革3个方面分析了总量控制的途径,并结合经济增长的不确定性提出了实现总量控制目标的政策及有关建议。     

国产引进型300MW汽轮机通流部分改造及效益分析

分析了国产引进型300MW双缸双排汽凝汽式汽轮机热耗率大、经济性差的原因。采用全三维技术对汽轮机高中压通流部分进行改造,设计使用了先进的子午收缩型调节级和弯扭马刀叶片,有效提高了机组的经济性和可靠性。该技术在江西丰城发电厂4×300MW机组上的应用经验,可为其他同类机组增容降耗改造提供借鉴。     

Incentives for cattle producers to adopt an E. Coli vaccine: An application of best–worst scaling

E. coli O157:H7 is an important source of foodborne disease. The E. coli pathogen occurs naturally within the rumen of livestock (including cattle) and does not affect the health of the cattle, however, can be a source of cross-contamination during food processing or environmental contamination of drinking and irrigation water supplies. A vaccine to reduce the risk of cattle shedding E. coli is licensed for use in Canada and the US, however, adoption of the vaccine by cattle producers has been extremely low. Using data from a survey of cow–calf producers in western Canada, the influence of a set of thirteen incentives to encourage adoption of the vaccine is examined using Best–Worst Scaling. Incentives include policy interventions, market/supply chain incentives, production protocol incentives, and producer reputation incentives. Heterogeneity in producer responses to the incentives is evident and is further explored with a Latent Class Cluster analysis. Results suggest that a ‘one size fits all’ policy to encourage adoption of an E. coli vaccine by cattle producers may be challenging.     

从OECD国家发展历程看我国2020年能源电力消费

详细分析了OECD 10个主要国家在工业化进程中的能源和电力消费趋势。分析结果表明：在工业化和现代化的进程中,电力消费的增长速度始终快于一次能源消费;后发工业化国家的能源和电力消费增速远快于先行工业化国家,各国电力消费比重都在不断攀升。因此,在21世纪中叶我国全面实现工业化、基本实现现代化之前,无论是能源电力消费的总量还是人均指标,我国的一次能源和电力消费都将伴随着工业化进程继续快速增长,而目前我国接近发达国家的电力消费比重还将继续上升。情景分析表明,2020年,我国人均能源消费将达3.18～4.95tce,能源消费总量将达44.2亿～68.8亿tce;人均用电量增至5240～8090kW·h,全社会用电量达到7.3万亿～11.2万亿kW·h,需要15.8亿～24.4亿kW发电装机容量,人均装机约1.137～1.755kW。     

Can household-based food consumption surveys be used to make inferences about nutrient intakes and inadequacies? A Bangladesh case study

Household Consumption and Expenditures Surveys (HCES) are increasingly being used to make inferences about individual food consumption, despite the fact that they collect food data at only the household level. Usually the analysis assumes that the household’s food is distributed among its members in direct proportion to each member’s share of the household’s total energy requirements; what is referred to as the adult male equivalent (AME) approach. Using the 2011–2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey—which collected consumption data for all members of rural households using combined 24-hour recall (24HR) and food weighing methods—this study directly compared probability-based average estimates of intakes, intake gaps, and the prevalence of inadequacies as estimated by the 24HR and those calculated using the AME approach for energy and each of four micronutrients: vitamin A, iron, zinc, and calcium.At the population level, for iron, vitamin A, and calcium, more than 97% of all individuals had the same estimated prevalence of adequate or inadequate nutrient intakes using 24HR and AME-based estimates. In the case of energy and zinc, roughly 77 and 83% of the sample population had identical adequacy statuses, respectively. The magnitude of inadequacies (the nutrient gaps) differed by 8 percentage points for energy and less than 3 percentage points for the four micronutrients. Disaggregating intakes and inadequacies by age groups revealed that the vast majority of variance between the two methods was highly concentrated in the first few years of life. Children 3 years of age and younger constituted 7.5% of the population but had 13.1% of the inconsistencies in intake adequacy status. 54% of children 3 and under had at least one pair of inconsistent prevalence estimates. While there are important differences in the levels of estimated energy and micronutrient intakes using 24HR and the AME-based estimates for children 3 and under, the results are remarkably comparable for the rest of the population.