Financial stress,sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm.     

Teaching teenagers in finance: Does it work?

Many initiatives worldwide aim at improving financial literacy through targeted education programs, yet there is little evidence regarding their effectiveness. We examine the impact of a short financial education program on teenagers in German high schools. Our findings reveal that the training program significantly increases teenagers’ interest in financial matters and their financial knowledge, especially their ability to properly assess the riskiness of assets. Behaviorally, we observe a decrease in the prevalence of self-reported impulse purchases, but at the same time find no evidence of a significant increase in savings.     

Effect of Parental Migration on the Academic Performance of Left‐behind Middle School Students in Rural China

China's rapid development and urbanization over the past 30 years have caused large numbers of rural residents to migrate to urban areas in search of work. This has created a generation of children who remain behind in rural areas when their parents migrate for work. Previous research has found mixed impacts of parental migration on the educational achievement of left‐behind children (LBC), perhaps because of methodological deficiencies and lack of recognition of the heterogeneity of this population of children. Our study attempts to examine the impact of six types of parental migration on the academic achievement of a rural junior high school sample. Our study uses a panel of 7148 junior high school students to implement a difference‐in‐difference analysis and finds that parental migration has a negative and significant impact on the academic achievement of junior high school students. Our study suggests that the Chinese Government should implement measures to dismantle barriers to the human capital accumulation of LBC to ensure sustainable economic growth and human capital development in China.     

Is current institutional quality linked to legal origins and disease endowments? Evidence from Africa

This paper empirically assesses if and to what extent cross-country differences in institutions inherited from the past affect current institutional quality in Africa. Specifically, the work evaluates if legal origins and disease endowments explain cross-country differences in the quality of contemporary institutions that are widely considered to be important for financial system development and other economic outcomes, such as those related to creditor rights protection and the credit information infrastructure, as well as the judicial, legal property and insolvency systems. Empirical tests are carried out on a sample of 46 African former European colonies with data on current institutional quality from 2004 to 2013. The findings reveal that the legal origins hypothesis receives strong support in the data: historical factors, rooted in legal origins, have long-lasting effects on current institutional quality in the African context. Mixed evidence is instead found for the endowment view.     

A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption,real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal

Mountain economies will have to play a central role in attaining the global pursuit of green economic growth as crucial bearers of ecosystems goods and services. However, these economies are not adequately represented in the development policy debates in spite of their fundamental importance towards global sustainable development. This study examines the inter relationships between energy consumption, output and carbon emissions in a developing mountainous economy using an augmented Vector Autoregression model. Time-series data over the period 1975–2013 is studied applying a multivariate framework using population and gross fixed capital formation as additional variables for Nepal. Testing for Granger causality between integrated variables based on asymptotic theory reveals a long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from carbon emissions to GDP. We suggest that the government of Nepal can address energy poverty by accelerating the adoption energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and energy efficiency improvements to narrow the energy supply-demand gap. The opportunity to promote the uptake of decentralised off-grid renewable technologies in remote areas and the large scale development of hydropower at the national level also needs to be prioritized. Our results remain robust across different estimators and contributes to an emerging literature on the nexus relationships between energy consumption, income and carbon emissions in mountainous developing economies.     

Efectividad del proyecto de convergencia contable mexicano emprendido a partir de 2005: evidencia empírica (1997-2010)

The purpose of our study is to know whether the efforts carried out by the Mexican Council for Financial Information managed to reduce the differences in the calculation of the Mexican accounting reports and those calculated under American principles (US GAAP) in the period 1997-2010. To achieve the objectives set out, we analyzed 230 20-F reports that correspond to 27 Mexican companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange. The results obtained in the implementation of the linear regression models show the existence of certain factors that explain the degree of comparability of fundamental accounting variables obtained under Mexican GAAP and US GAAP.     

An excellent approximation for the m out of n day provision

The m out of n day provision (MooN) of convertible bonds is difficult to handle. To approximating the MooN better, this paper proposes an approach named the conditional range probability (CRP). CRP is the simulated probability of the MooN being reached within a price range at a future time, conditional on today’s price of the underlying, and can be incorporated into any conventional derivatives pricing method. For a purposely designed exotic call option with a 20 out of 30 day provision, CRP under finite difference is found to outperform significantly several existing approaches and produce a mean pricing error of 1% over a wide range of initial underlying prices for the exotic call. The result implies that finite difference utilizing CRP will yield excellent approximating prices for convertible bonds.     

The effects of mega-events on perceived corruption

In recent decades, the media have covered many cases of corruption related to the celebration of mega-events around the globe. In most of these cases, politicians and other high officials are involved. This paper analyses the effect of hosting mega-events on the level of perceived corruption in 34 OECD countries, during 1996–2017. Summer and Winter Olympic Games, FIFA World Cups, and Universal Expositions are considered. Results show that, when we take the year of the celebration of the event as the turning point, there is no robust evidence in favour of a positive impact on perceived corruption. However, when we take the election date of the host country as the threshold, the magnitude of the effect is lasting, reaching its maximum value 1–2 years before the celebration itself, and increasing the perceived level of corruption by about 4%.     

Early labor market outcomes of university graduates: Does time to degree matter?

Using university administrative and survey data drawn from the AlmaLaurea Consortium, we analyze the effect of time to degree on the early labor market performance of Italian graduates. The empirical strategy allows identifying separately the impact of elapsed time to degree on the transition from university to work and on earnings from other determinants specific to the academic path completed. Findings suggest that delayed graduation reduces the employment probability (0.8% points for each year of delay), and this effect is still persistent five years after graduation. Once employed, graduates not completing their degree within the minimum period are also penalized in their net monthly earnings, even five years after graduation. The most penalized groups are women and graduates in non-scientific fields.