The Role of U.S. Market on International Risk‐Return Tradeoff Relations

We study the intertemporal risk‐return tradeoff relations based on returns from 18 international markets. We find striking new empirical evidence that the inclusion of U.S. market returns significantly changes the estimated risk‐return tradeoff relations in international markets from mostly negative to predominantly positive. Our results are consistent with the lead‐lag effect between U.S. and international markets in the sense of Rapach, Strauss and Zhou.     

Risk forecasting in (T)GARCH models with uncorrelated dependent innovations

(G)ARCH-type models are frequently used for the dynamic modelling and forecasting of risk attached to speculative asset returns. While the symmetric and conditionally Gaussian GARCH model has been generalized in a manifold of directions, model innovations are mostly presumed to stem from an underlying IID distribution. For a cross section of 18 stock market indices, we notice that (threshold) (T)GARCH-implied model innovations are likely at odds with the commonly held IID assumption. Two complementary strategies are pursued to evaluate the conditional distributions of consecutive TGARCH innovations, a non-parametric approach and a class of standardized copula distributions. Modelling higher order dependence patterns is found to improve standard TGARCH-implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall out-of-sample forecasts that rely on the notion of IID innovations.     

The dynamic interrelation between external finance and bank credit

This article studies the interrelation among the volumes of bonds and stocks issued by non-financial firms, and levels of industrial loans outstanding in the United States. These aggregates are co-integrated and characterized by asymmetric volatility. Their co-movements are driven by financial indicators such as the yield spread, size of loan market and market volatility. Bond and stock issuance are positively correlated, and even more so during the expansionary phase of the cycle. Loans outstanding and bond issuance are negatively correlated, and their substitutability increases in periods of economic downturn, highlighting the importance of bond markets to mitigate credit crunches.     

An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia

This study investigates the effects of the exchange rate volatility on the export flows of Indonesia, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines during 1974–2011. Towards this goal a trade weighted real effective (rather than the bilateral) exchange rate and three different measures of volatility, i.e. obtained from an ARCH model, a GARCH model and a moving-average standard deviation measure are used in this study. Specifically, the export flows between six Asian countries and the rest of the world are investigated rather than focusing on trade with only one country. Our findings reveal that the exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on export flows in the short run as well as in the long run for all the countries in the sample. The impact in the long run is predominantly negative with the exception of Singapore, but in the short run the impact varies across countries. Moreover, our results are robust to the alternative measures of volatility used and most of the findings in the long run and short run are also robust to the crisis period.     

Economic integration and stock market dynamic linkages: evidence in the context of Australia and Asia

Countries are becoming economically integrated and it is contended that this will also lead to their financial markets becoming integrated. This contention is important since international financial market integration diminishes portfolio diversification benefits and creates contagion risk. We test this contention in this article in the context of the Australasian region. Australia and Asia have experienced very significant economic integration through a rapid growth in their bilateral trade. We utilize a battery of econometric techniques – cointegration, asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlations and panel regression models. As expected, we find that trade intensity significantly drives the interdependence between their stock markets in both the short run and the long run. Thus, given the ever increasing economic integration in this region, this finding implies that their stock markets face the risk of contagion, and that investors in these markets would also be confronted with the prospect of lower diversification benefits.     

基于百度指数的碳交易市场波动率的实证研究

碳交易市场波动率研究主要基于成交量数据对收益率GARCH效应的解释作用。在互联网时代可以有更新更为有效的方法来衡量碳交易市场的波动性。基于“碳交易”词条的百度指数,以湖北碳交易市场中的收益率为样本,本文通过对比使用引入成交量和搜索量的IGARCH（1,1）模型,实证研究发现传统的量价方程的确没有解释力,而百度指数可以对收益率的GARCH效应做出部分合理的解释,这可以在某种程度上反映湖北碳交易市场的交易信息流。     

Size,time-varying beta,and conditional heteroscedasticity in UK stock returns

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between firm size and time-varying betas of UK stocks. We extend the Schwert and Seguin (1990)(Journal of Finance 45, 1120–1155) methodology by explicitly modeling conditional heteroscedasticity in the market model residual returns. Our results show that the time-varying coefficient is not statistically significant for both small and large firm stock indexes. We also find that accounting for GARCH effects in the Schwert-Seguin market model yields beta estimates that are markedly differently from those when conditional heteroscedasticity is ignored. Event studies that ignore conditional heteroscedasticity may bias the abnormal returns of small and large firms, thereby leading to a different conclusion regarding the significance of an information event.     

VaR及对证券投资基金的VaR测算

本在对VaR方法的分析的基础上，选择了GAROH模型度量证券投资基金的风险，并计算了样本期间22只基金的VaR值。在此基础上给出了各基金对应的RAROC值，并对结果进行了分析。     

Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union

We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and monthly data on EU countries covering the 1962–2003 period to test for the impact of real (output growth) and nominal (inflation) macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related to the average growth rate and the effect in several countries is negative. Second, in half of the cases there is no significant relationship between inflation uncertainty and output growth performance. Third, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. Nevertheless, considerable evidence for the Cukierman–Meltzer hypothesis is obtained. Our conclusions are based on adopting both a structural and a reduced-form bivariate GARCH model. Finally, we also find statistically significant evidence of regime switching for both inflation and output growth volatility throughout the sample.     

ARCH and GARCH models vs. martingale volatility of finance market returns

ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or ‘white noise’ as is usual in regression analysis, while also assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and ‘white’ assumptions, and violating finance data and the efficient market hypothesis as well.