Determinants of residential water demand in Germany

We econometrically analyze the impact of several economic, environmental and social determinants for the per capita demand for water in about 600 water supply areas in Germany. Besides prices, income and household size, we consider the effects of population age, the share of wells, housing patterns, precipitation and temperature. We also explore why current per capita residential water consumption in the new federal states is about 30% lower than in the old federal states. Since average cost pricing may cause an endogeneity problem, we apply instrumental-variable procedures in addition to single equation ordinary least squares, but find no evidence that prices are endogenous. Our estimation results suggest that the price elasticity of water demand in Germany is around − 0.24. The income elasticity is positive, decreases with higher income levels and is at least three times higher in the new federal states than in the old federal states. Current differences in prices and income levels explain about one third of the gap in residential water use between the two regions. Household size and the share of wells have a negative impact on per capita water demand, and water use increases with age. Finally, the findings provide some evidence that rainfall patterns rather than total rainfall affect water consumption, while temperature appears to have no impact at all. All outcomes are robust to a log-log and two types of semi-log specifications for the water demand function.     

能源价格对宏观经济的影响——基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)的分析

石油与煤炭价格上涨将对中国经济造成什么样的影响,其影响度与中国现阶段的经济特点的相关性,以及如何应对能源价格上涨的影响,都是政府宏观决策需要研究的重大问题。本文运用CGE方法研究了这些问题,尤其是对石油与煤炭价格上涨影响程度的对比,填补了这一方面的研究空白。结果表明:能源价格上涨对中国经济具有紧缩作用,但对不同产业的紧缩程度不一致,能源价格除了影响经济增长,还将推动产业结构变化。对大多数产业而言,相同比例的价格上涨,煤炭的紧缩作用是石油紧缩作用的2至3倍;对于非能源密集型的服务业紧缩幅度也达3倍,石油和煤炭的经济紧缩作用程度不一致与目前中国能源消费结构基本吻合,2007年中国煤炭消费占一次能源的70%,而石油消费仅占20%。本文最后就如何应对能源价格上涨的影响提出建议。     

汇率与股价关系研究最新进展述评

有关汇率与股价关系的最新研究,归纳起来主要有四个发展方向:一是传统宏观经济一般均衡分析方法的拓展,在以往的开放宏观经济均衡模型中将汇率与股价作为宏观经济中重要的解释变量,强化对客观经济运行的考察;二是具有微观基础的均衡分析,包括资产组合平衡与新开放宏观经济两个分析框架下的汇率与股价关系研究;三是从市场的微观结构理论对汇率与股价这两种资产价格进行模型化;四是影响汇率与股价关系的相关因素的分析。本文按照这四个方面进行文献梳理,并进行简要评述。     

中国实行通货膨胀目标制的可行性分析

通货膨胀目标制是一种以保持低而稳定的通货膨胀为首要目标的货币政策框架。本研究参照IMF提出的相关指标,并考虑到中国作为转型国家的经济特征,从中国当前经济运行中控制一般物价水平的必要性、经济结构的完善性、金融市场和银行体系的健全性、中央银行的独立性、货币政策的透明度以及央行准确预测通货膨胀的技术等方面考察了中国实行通货膨胀目标制的可行性,得出中国已经初步具备实施该货币制度的条件。并提出更彻底的制度改革将会确保中国成功实施通货膨胀目标制,从而使得宏观经济运行处于稳定的价格水平因而更有效率。     

Impact of the 2014 Suspension Agreement on sugar between the United States and Mexico

In December 2014, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to a suspension agreement that set a $22.25/cwt import price floor on U.S. sugar imports from Mexico. A partial equilibrium trade model was developed to estimate the economic impact the agreement would have had if it had been in effect from 2008 to 2014. In years when the price floor would have been binding, on average, U.S. producers would have gained $138 million and Mexican producers would have lost $218 million. However, total Mexican welfare would have actually increased by $11.5 million. Furthermore, the average price floor that would have maximized total Mexican welfare over that period is $22.76/cwt. Also, under certain supply and demand elasticity conditions, the average price floor that would have maximized joint U.S. and Mexican producer welfare over that period is $21.91/cwt. The latter two estimates are both close to the actual price floor agreed to in the 2014 Suspension Agreement.     

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.     

高房价是否导致了区域高技能人力资本流出?

我国正处于由人口大国向人力资本强国转型的关键阶段,高技能人才资源已成为当今区域经济社会发展的第一资源;与此同时,我国已经历了一段房价全面上涨的时期,由房价高速上涨所导致的人才流出问题引起政府与公众的广泛关注。在此背景下,本文通过对大学生就业地选择的关注,考察了高房价对地区高技能人力资本流出的影响。本文的结果稳健地表明,高房价显著地提高了大学毕业生离开本地就业的概率;根据本文的估计,在2010年至2015年期间,房价的上升至少增加了区域高技能人才流出21.5%;特别地,房价的挤出作用对于较弱家庭背景的学生以及非一线城市更为严重,此外,高房价也影响了大学毕业生的职业选择。本文的研究结果指出了中国高房价可能影响长期经济社会发展的一个新的重要渠道;同时,通过对房价的关注,为地区与国家减少高技能人才流出,实现经济发展由要素驱动向创新驱动转变提供了新的启示。     

The dynamic interactions among the stock,bond and insurance markets

This paper explores the lead–lag relationships and the dynamic linkages among stock, insurance and bond markets in the developed countries. This is the first empirical study which sheds light on the extent and magnitude of the association among these financial markets used by the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), generalized impulse response approach, and generalized variance decomposition in a multivariate setting. Our empirical results illustrate that there are indeed various patterns of dynamic relationships. The direction of causality appears to differ across countries. While investigating these interactive relationships under unexpected shocks, there is a one-way significant influence between the life insurance premium and long-run interest rate. These empirical findings serve as valuable applications not only for investors to diversify their risk away as well as to earn the abnormal return, but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.     

碳排放权市场价格发现功能的实证分析

碳期货市场在碳市场扮演着极为重要的角色,通常具有价格发现的功能。本文分析了国际碳排放权交易市场两种主要商品EUA、CER的期货价格关系．通过向量误差修正模型和公共因子模型对欧盟碳期货EUA与CER期货进行了实证研究。结果显示：EUA、CER这两种主要碳排价格指标之间具有很高的相关性,存在长期均衡的协整关系,均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,同时EUA期货价格引导CER期货价格变化。     

When quality signals talk: Evidence from the Turin hotel industry

This study analyzes the relationship between quality signals and price setting through the application of hedonic price functions. The model proposals also include variables relating to land use policies and tourism development strategies. A simultaneous equation model endogenously estimates quality signals. This method is appropriate for analyzing emerging urban destinations, as characterized by the presence of an expanding hotel industry. The results are based on a dataset of 145 hotels in Turin, Italy. The empirical findings reveal that reputation-based quality signals help explain tariff levels. Price proposals also include a premium for quality assured hotels, defining some limits of the current hotel classification system. The empirical evidence has significant marketing implications for the hospitality industry’s competitiveness, since the results clarify the impact of quality signals on price level.