The critical discount factor as a measure for cartel stability?

This paper considers the stability of tacit collusion in price setting duopolies with repeated interaction. The minimum discount factor above which tacit collusion can be sustained in a subgame perfect equilibrium is called the critical discount factor δ*. In addition, δ* is often used as an intuitive measure for the stability of a tacit cartel, assuming that a collusive equilibrium is more difficult to sustain when δ* increases. However, according to standard theory the distance δ − δ* between the actual and the critical discount factor does not matter for stability as long as δ > δ*. This paper contributes experimental evidence that supports the intuitive idea that a larger critical discount factor makes collusion a less likely outcome.      

投资者异质性与证券市场定价——理论模型与中国的经验证据

本文从投资者异质性的客观现实出发,通过对投资者二维视角的交叉分类与相关行为的探讨,提出了一种按交易特点与行为依据的新的分类方案,即将投资者分为套利交易者、价格预期交易者和量能变动交易者三类。在此基础上分别建立了各类投资者的需求函数,通过对证券市场供求函数的讨论,利用均衡分析方法构建了基于投资者异质性的证券市场定价模型,并以我国证券市场1999-2011年的月度数据为样本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:我国证券市场价格主要由价格预期交易者的诱导性策略行为与量能变动交易者的羊群行为决定,套利交易者的套利行为对市场价格没有显著的影响,证券市场扩容也未对市场价格的形成产生系统性冲击。     

Macro-economic determinants of consumer price knowledge: A meta-analysis of four decades of research

For the past four decades, dozens of researchers have studied consumer price knowledge, often with disagreements on the extent of consumer' ignorance about prices. While some of these disagreements have been attributed to research design variations among studies, no inquiry has yet been made on the role of the economic environment on consumer price knowledge. Nevertheless, environmental factors such as interest rates, unemployment, and economic growth may significantly influence consumers' knowledge of prices. Certain economic environments may therefore provide marketers with the ability to utilize pricing tactics which rely on limitations in consumers' knowledge of product prices. Using a meta-analytic framework, this paper synthesizes the results of 297 previous price knowledge studies to document the effects of inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, interest rates, country of study, and passage of time on consumer price knowledge. The meta-analysis results demonstrate that economic factors have considerable influence on explaining variations in consumer price knowledge. Managerial and public policy implications of the findings in light of turbulent economic environments are discussed.     

我国货币政策传导机制有效性研究:条件与结论

对几种货币政策传导机制的利用是否有效,取决于市场失衡的程度与开放的程度以及经济发展不同时期的机遇。目前我国新兴市场资金流动与各市场间的联系主要受资产价格传导机制作用的引导,而不是利率传导。人民币升值带来的机遇并非仅发生在商品市场,更发生在资本市场,汇率传导机制的作用虽然影响了出口,但是目前却更有利于资本输出下的海外收购与兼并,从而降低了通货膨胀传递下商品市场的投资成本。     

Grain price stabilization in India: Evaluation of policy alternatives

Stabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in India as in most other countries — both developing and eveloped. However, since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high, there is now a need for finding cost-effective alternatives including non interventionist and market-oriented methods for price stabilization. In this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in India. We make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability, producer and consumer welfare and government costs. A multi-market equilibrium framework is used where private storage, consumption, supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously. Indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices. The alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria, welfare and price stability achieved. The main findings are as follows. The ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used. Greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare. The option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability. Further, the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade.     

Modeling Clustered Ordered Categorical Data: A Survey

This article surveys various strategies for modeling ordered categorical (ordinal) response variables when the data have some type of clustering, extending a similar survey for binary data by Pendergast, Gange, Newton, Lindstrom, Palta & Fisher (1996). An important special case is when repeated measurement occurs at various occasions for each subject, such as in longitudinal studies. A much greater variety of models and fitting methods are available than when a similar survey for repeated ordinal response data was prepared a decade ago (Agresti, 1989). The primary emphasis of the review is on two classes of models, marginal models for which effects are averaged over all clusters at particular levels of predictors, and cluster-specific models for which effects apply at the cluster level. We present the two types of models in the ordinal context, review the literature for each, and discuss connections between them. Then, we summarize some alternative modeling approaches and ways of estimating parameters, including a Bayesian approach. We also discuss applications and areas likely to be popular for future research, such as ways of handling missing data and ways of modeling agreement and evaluating the accuracy of diagnostic tests. Finally, we review the current availability of software for using the methods discussed in this article.     

New Political Economy

Alberto Alesina and Nouriel Roubini with Gerald D. Cohen, Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy
Avinash K. Dixit, The Making of Economic Policy: A Transaction-Cost Politics Perspective.
Gordon Pepper, Inside Thatcher's Monetarist Revolution     

预测与对策:未来中国房地产价格走势分析——以成都市为例

全球金融危机对中国房地产价格影响很大,通过对一系列影响因素的分析,发现这一时期人们的心理预期是所有影响因素中最为敏感的因素,能严重影响中国房地产价格。研究表明,四川省成都市的房地产价格走势与全国房地产价格走势接近,因而能够以该城市的房地产价格作为研究样本,在各种心理预期量化的基础上,预测出未来三年中国房地产价格并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Consumers' reaction to fair trade motivated price increases

Consumer perception of price increases and their reactions are a topic of great relevance for marketing research and practice. We investigate consumers' acceptance of price increases justified by higher costs due to company's corporate socially responsible activities by conducting two experimental studies. In the first study we examine perceived fairness and intentions following a price increase justified by a fair trade commitment. To assess the green attitude–behavior gap in consumer behavior our second study incorporates a real world experiment to explore actual consumer behavior against stated intentions. Our investigation adds nuance to our understanding of the effects of corporate social responsibility on consumer response to price increases. Our results reveal that a price increase due to a fair trade commitment is perceived as fair and does not have a negative impact on purchase behavior. We contrast our findings with a price increase due to higher taxes and due to profit increase. Our results demonstrate that fair trade justified price increases can skim twice the amount compared to tax justified increases. Furthermore, consumers' actual buying behavior reveals no difference to their stated intentions. Hence, prior research proclaiming an attitude–behavior gap in the context of consumers' socially responsible buying behavior has to be called into question.     

Industry equilibrium under price distribution and cost shifts

Using a reference utility entry and exit criterion, we consider an equilibrium model of production where market price is random but endogenous with respect to industry output. General conditions are identified for industry output to increase under shifts in costs and in the distribution of demand. Comparative statics of firm level production and firm numbers are also studied. Results confirm the intuition that improvements in cost and demand conditions increase industry production. However, firm level responses are not as intuitive, and depend upon the relationship between the source of disturbance and the compensation through the altered distribution of output price.