The Euro Changeover and Numerical Intuition for Prices in the Old and New Currencies

This study examines how numerical intuition for prices in euros and in the Portuguese currency escudos developed in Portugal after the euro changeover. Estimates of prices of 40 different products were collected in the two currencies and at four different times from November 2001 to April 2004. The results regarding price estimates in euros were more in accordance with a relearning hypothesis considering that price estimates become progressively more accurate by a process that is related to purchase frequency. It was also suggested that this is a very slow process and that prices in the former currency are not simply forgotten. On the contrary, the escudos remained a general benchmark for an extended period. The results regarding estimated price intuition and use of intuition in estimating prices are also consistent with a slow adaptation process. Implications for future euro changeovers are discussed.     

Retail pricing and clearance sales: the multiple product case

This paper deals with the phenomenon of clearance sales of fashion type goods which have an intertemporal aspect similar to durable goods. Using the Van Praag and Bode (1992) model, the case of clearance sales in a store selling more than one commodity is analyzed. Conditions and rules of thumb are shown in which it is optimal to increase the price of one product while decreasing the price of another. A linear demand model and a numerical example are presented, showing that the price of one product decreases while the price of the other product may increase or decrease in different periods.     

医疗服务市场的高价格形成机制——一个基于信息扩散的解释框架

本文指出,一个自由的医疗服务市场会导致过高的价格水平,其原因在于,医疗服务的价格变化信息在患者之间扩散是一个缓慢的时间过程,致使医院的医疗服务需求对价格变化不敏感,从而降低了医疗服务市场的竞争性。本文同时指出,政府只要能够改变医疗服务价格信息的扩散机制,就能够建立一个以市场机制为基础的高效率的医疗卫生体制。     

西方结构型通货膨胀理论及其对我国的启示

我们正面临西方国家曾经出现并已解决的结构型通货膨胀,我们需要认真研究西方结构型通货膨胀产生的历史背景、成因及其对策,借鉴发达国家治理结构型通货膨胀的对策与措施:实行紧缩性的货币政策、价格管制政策、供给管理政策、根据国际收支和国际市场的具体情况灵活变动汇率等。     

The Advertising–price Relationship: Theory and Evidence

The relationship between advertising and price is important because the welfare effect of advertising depends upon the price effect of advertising. We attempt to provide a better understanding of the theoretical relationship between advertising and price. We establish theoretical conditions sufficient for advertising to raise prices. This will occur, for example, when firms play a supermodular game – a structure that considers the type of advertising (i.e., persuasive, image creating, or informative) and the effect that advertising has on a firm’s demand and costs. We also compare results from two simple duopoly models, one with horizontal and the other with vertical differentiation, and find that only the model with horizontal differentiation is supermodular for the forms of advertising that are thought to raise price (e.g., persuasive advertising). In consideration of these theoretical issues, we then develop an empirical model to determine whether advertising raises prices in the US brewing and cigarette industries.     

人民币实际汇率调整趋势与中国经济转型

1978年以来的人民币实际汇率呈现出长期的贬值态势,本文结合中国经济改革的历程深入分析了实际汇率贬值的内在机制,认为市场化进程中的制度变迁和技术进步是其根本原因。而目前经济的内外失衡所引发的实际汇率和名义汇率的升值压力,本质上是深层次市场化改革推进受阻后经济结构扭曲的外在表现。本文认为,以汇率形成机制改革为主要内容的名义的市场化改革只能缓解而无法根除这种压力,推行土地、劳动力和自然资源等要素价格在内的实际的市场改革才是纠正内外失衡,缓解汇率升值压力的治本之道。     

交易者关注行为对股票价格的影响机制

本文研究了交易者的关注行为对股票价格的影响机制。通过控制了公司基本面的因素基础上,分别从最终量（股票价格）和变化量（价格差）两个角度,建立了影响模型,实证发现,无论是最终量还是变化量,当期的关注度产生的正向响应都是强于滞后一期产生的反向影响;进一步用格兰杰因果分析了两者的关系,发现互为双向格兰杰原因;通过脉冲响应了解相互之间作用的模式,发现关注度对价格短期内是反向波动的影响,长期会有正向的响应。     

广义三棱柱地质模型的工程应用

采用广义三棱柱地质模型,实现工程地质的三维可视化,可以帮助工程人员迅速地掌握工程地质情况。     

Flexible estimation of price response functions using retail scanner data

Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects.     

The “Euro Illusion”: Illusion or Fact?

The changeover to the euro elicited an upsurge of research on the effects of the new currency on consumers’ conversion strategies, price estimates, price evaluations, choices, and purchases. This research includes longitudinal surveys, interviews, and controlled experiments, both natural and in the laboratory. The present article starts with an overview of this research after which it more specifically focuses on research showing an influence of the nominal value, as expressed in different currencies, on price evaluations and consumer choice. For most countries, the transition to the euro led to a lower nominal value currency. A bias known as the “euro illusion” has been documented such that the subjective value of money is influenced in the direction of the nominal value (i.e., in most countries prices and salaries seem smaller when expressed in euros than in the old domestic currency). Although the term was coined in connection with the euro changeover, the nominal representation of a currency has been shown to influence the subjective value of money in unfamiliar currencies other than the euro. Thus, tourists travelling abroad may frequently be subject to such an illusion. Different mechanisms have been proposed to account for the euro illusion. One is the numerosity heuristic and another the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic in conjunction with biased conversion strategies. The size of the euro illusion is influenced by trade-offs between accuracy and effort. Consistent with this hypothesis, task importance, time constraints, familiarity with the conversion strategy, complexity of the conversion strategy, mood, and attitude towards the country or the currency all influence the size of the euro illusion.