A model of West African millet prices in rural markets

In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional millet price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data and accounts for the distance of rural markets from capital cities. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. We find that including NDVI information significantly improves price forecasts.     

汇率与股价关联的实证研究——基于汇改后中国大陆、台湾、香港的数据

通过运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对汇率制度改革后中国大陆、台湾、香港的股市与汇市关系的实证结果表明,中国大陆汇市与股市存在长期稳定的协整关系,短期相互影响明显;台湾汇市与股市只存在短期的相互效应;香港数据表明两者不存在因果关系,但方差分解显示股市变动对汇率波动有一定的冲击效应.     

中国房地产价格波动财富效应的理论与实证研究

总结和借鉴前人理论,结合我国房地产市场的现状,采用协整理论、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验,对中国房地产市场与消费增长之间的关系进行实证分析.结论表明:中国同西方主要发达国家一样,房地产市场表现出了显著的财富效应,这种财富效应将随着时间的推移而增强.     

Price discovery in tick time

This paper develops a tick time model for the quote setting dynamics on Nasdaq. The model decomposes quotes into an efficient price, asymmetric information and noise. Both the evolution of the efficient price and the information contents of quotes depend on quote durations. New measures for the contribution to price discovery are defined within this model. When aggregated to fixed calendar time intervals, they relate closely to Hasbrouck [Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995, One security, many markets: determining the contribution to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199] information shares. Empirical results for 20 Nasdaq stocks indicate that ECNs, in particular Island, contribute most to price discovery for active stocks. For less active stocks, wholesale market makers contribute most.     

An empirical analysis of audit fee price competition after the Korean 1999 Omnibus Cartel Repeal Act

This study examines the audit service market in Korea after the 1999 Omnibus Cartel Repeal Act to determine if increased competition has led to audit fee discounting. Until 19 December 2001, when the Korean government enacted The Financial Supervisory Regulations, researchers could not address questions related to price competition in the Korean audit market due to data limitations. The new regulations allow researchers to examine audit effort for the first time because both audit hours and audit fees are now recommended disclosures. We use audit fee data of Korean companies for the 6-year period 1999–2004, and find evidence that total audit fees paid have been increasing but audit fees per hour have been decreasing. We also find that Big 5 auditing firms’ fees per hour are significantly lower than non-Big 5 auditing firms and are decreasing across time. These price pressures should be of concern to regulators and investors because prior research has demonstrated that price competition leads to discounting, which can result in unrealistically low audit fees and poor audit quality. Finally, as in previous research, we also find discounting of initial audit engagements in the Korean market.     

论政府干预市场和管制价格的边界——一则“观众诉影院侵犯选择权案”的经济学阐释

消费者投诉商家"侵犯其选择权"等诸如此类的问题,反映了消费者对政府干预的期盼,直接表现为对政府管制市场价格的渴望.理论分析表明,政府以提供"禁止"之类"有益品"(merit goods)的方式来纠正人们不舍理的偏好进而解决市场失灵问题,是市场经济条件下政府的重要职能之一.商家的行规戒律并非"不含理偏好",不属于政府干预或管制的范围.因此,发展市场经济应该更多地让价格发挥配置资源的作用;政府的价格管制边界应严格限定在市场失灵领域,如对垄断企业的价格及非垄断企业的卡特尔定价行为等进行管制.     

我国资产价格与通货膨胀的关系研究——基于ARDL的技术分析

随着资产市场投资品种日益丰富,居民参与资产投资的程度不断深入,资产通过财富效应和投资效应对经济的影响越来越大,资产价格对一般物价水平的影响不断增强,因此资产价格波动是否会影响通货膨胀率就成为当前理论和实务界关注的焦点。为了检验我国资产价格与通货膨胀的关系,本文选择股票、汇率、房地产价格以及其他影响通货膨胀的因素,运用ARDL模型对我国资产价格和通货膨胀的关系进行经验分析。经验分析结果表明:资产价格波动影响通货膨胀,但各因素对通货膨胀的影响差异较大,即房地产价格和汇率两个指标作用显著,股票作用较弱。     

资产价格与货币、财税政策——文献综述与评价

本文在对研究资产价格与货币、财税政策关系的国内外相关理论进行了较为细致的梳理和总结后发现,国内外学者对于资产价格与货币政策的研究广泛而深入,而其研究结论又是如此模棱两可,资产价格与货币政策的关系处于不确定状态。而从税制发展史上看,房地产税收问题更一直是财政学研究的一个重点问题。关于资本市场的税制研究,国内外学者似乎着墨不多。     

美元贬值和石油价格变动相关性的实证分析

进入新世纪以来,由于各种因素导致美元不断贬值,与此形成鲜明对比的是,石油价格一路飙升。那么,美元汇率和石油价格之间是否存在着某种因果关系呢?由于期货市场具有价格发现功能。本文以最具代表性的美国纽约商品交易所的原油期货价格为研究对象,分析美元贬值和石油价格之间的关系。本文首先定性分析美元贬值导致石油价格上涨的传导机制,然后利用模型对相关数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,石油期货价格的上涨,除了有美元指数的影响之外,更重要的原因是前期石油期货价格上涨对本期石油期货价格上涨有正向的推动作用。     

基于MF-DFA的中国股指期货价格的多重分形实证研究

本文通过应用多重分形谱分析法和多重分形消除趋势波动分析（MF-DFA）法,研究了新产生的中国股指期货市场的多重分形性。通过对2942个股指期货最后十分钟结算价格的分析,我们发现中国股指期货的收益率具有长程相关性和多重分形性,期货价格波动并不能用单一的标度指数进行充分描述。进一步通过将原始序列和转换后的收益序列进行比较,转换过程包括重排以及相位随机化,我们发现导致中国股指期货市场多重分形性的两种不同成因。研究结果表明,虽然厚尾分布是造成多重分形性的一个方面,但长程相关性才是引起中国股指期货市场多重分形的主要原因。