基于VAR模型的我国铜锌期货价格引导关系实证研究

铜、锌期货是大宗金属期货的重要品种,在期货投资市场上广受追捧。研究通过构建VAR模型,运用格兰杰因果检验,分析了近远月铜、锌期货价格之间相互引导关系,模型实证结论认为远月期铜、锌期货价格之间具有显著的相互引导关系,为期货市场上各类型投资者提供政策指引。     

Exports-led growth or growth-led exports in the case of China and Pakistan: An empirical investigation from the ARDL and Granger causality approach

There are various factors that determine and influence economic growth. From these, one of the most significant factors is exports, which play a vital role in the economic growth and development of a country. Trade theory states that exports enhance the growth of a domestic economy in various ways. This study attempts to empirically investigate the existence of the exports-led-growth (ELG) or growth-led-exports (GLE) hypotheses by adopting comparatively more contemporary techniques as compared to earlier classical approaches for China and Pakistan for the period of 1980 to 2015. The study found the existence of ELG for both China and Pakistan.     

新常态下产业结构变动与经济增长——基于省级动态面板数据的GMM方法

新常态下,正确处理好稳增长与调结构的关系,有重要的政策含义。文章通过构建NAV、MLI两个不同的产业结构变动指数,基于省级1993-2013年的面板数据,运用GMM方法进行了实证检验。结果表明：从全国范围来看,短期内,产业结构变动与经济增长之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,而较长时期内,仅存在经济增长到产业结构变动的单向格兰杰因果关系。其次,从省级层面来看,产业结构变动与经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系表现出很大的异质性。基于此结论,文章认为,产业政策并不具有较长时期有效性,产业政策的制定需要视期限、地区的不同而择机、择时制定;同时,要规避产业政策缺陷带来的不足,规避“结构负利”的出现。     

GDP growth determinants and foreign direct investment causality: the case of Iran

Given the economic conditions in Iran and the need to accelerate its economic growth, there is a rising interest in examining the variables that fuel its GDP growth. The scant literature on economic growth in Iran is composed of only a few scholarly studies that investigate this nation's GDP growth. However, none of these studies has examined the causality between GDP growth and its determining elements. The purpose of this study is: (1) to determine the economic variables that contribute to Iran's GDP per capita growth over time, and (2) to examine the causality between foreign direct investment and the relevant variables that are included in the model. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. The results indicate that: (1) the major determinants of GDP per capita growth in Iran are value added growth and domestic investment growth; (2) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and GDP per capita growth in Iran in either direction; and (3) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and value added growth in Iran in either direction.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

沈阳利用外商直接投资与经济增长关系实证研究

本文探讨了沈阳利用外商直接投资与经济增长关系的实证研究问题,运用了协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的方法,对沈阳1992—2006年FDI与GDP数据进行了处理,分析了沈阳利用外商直接投资与经济增长的关系,得出了沈阳利用外商直接投资对其经济增长具有促进和推动作用这一结论,这与沈阳的实际经济发展状况基本相符。     

基于granger方法的农业财政支出对农民收入影响的实证分析

运用granger因果关系协整分析方法,求解农业财政支出对农民收入的影响,得出了农业财政支出是农民收入增长Granger原因的结论。根据模型结果,农业财政支出每增加一亿元,农民人均纯收入增加1.88元。因此努力增加农业财政支出是当前增加农民收入的有效途径。     

金融危机对我国农产品价格波动的影响研究——基于07.01—09.08面板数据分析

本文利用2007.01—2009.08的月度面板数据,分析了金融危机对我国农产品价格波动的影响。首先运用单位根检验和协整检验,得知金融危机与我国农产品价格之间存在协整关系;然后利用格兰杰因果检验,发现金融危机确实导致了我国农产品价格下行,而农产品价格的下降不会进一步推动金融危机的恶化;最后通过构建误差修正模型更具体的描述金融危机对我国农产品价格的影响。     

上海市外贸发展与经济增长关系实证研究

通过统计计量分析发现,上海对外贸易规模较大且增速较快,对外贸易与经济增长关系密切,二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外贸总额或者进口额每增长1%,则GDP将增长0.5%以上。但是,外贸总额、出口额、进口额增长并不是上海经济增长的格兰杰原因,恰好相反,经济增长是短期外贸总额、出口增长的格兰杰原因。     

出口贸易结构的形成机理:基于我国1980-2005年的经验研究

近年来国内学者对我国对外贸易的研究开始将注意力从贸易量转到贸易结构上,但大多数研究只是停留在贸易结构的存在上,而忽视了贸易结构的形成。本文运用格兰杰因果检验和回归分析等方法实证分析了出口贸易结构的形成机理,研究发现:外国直接投资、贸易开放程度、产业结构、汇率变动对我国出口贸易结构的形成有正向作用;研发与创新投入的增加集中表现在资本密集型产品出口比重的增加;我国出口贸易结构易造成对外贸易摩擦,但贸易摩擦并没反作用于贸易结构;对外直接投资对我国出口贸易结构仍不能产生作用。