Monetary policy under model and data-parameter uncertainty

Empirical Taylor rules are much less aggressive than those derived from optimization-based models. This paper analyzes whether accounting for uncertainty across competing models and (or) real-time data considerations can explain this discrepancy. It considers a central bank that chooses a Taylor rule in a framework that allows for an aversion to the second-order risk associated with facing multiple models and measurement-error configurations. The paper finds that if the central bank cares strongly enough about stabilizing the output gap, this aversion leads to significant declines in the coefficients of the Taylor rule even if the central bank's loss function assigns little weight to reducing interest rate variability. Furthermore, a small degree of aversion can generate an optimal rule that matches the empirical Taylor rule.     

Revenue Sharing and Information Exchange under Non‐discriminatory Taxation*

The international exchange of tax information, and its merits compared to withholding taxation, has emerged as a central topic in international tax policy. We characterize and compare the outcomes that emerge, in a two‐country world, with and without information exchange, under the assumption that countries are unable to tax residents and non‐residents differentially. The analysis focuses on the role of asymmetries in country size (capturing a key feature of tax havens) and on the impact and potential desirability of schemes to share the revenue raised by withholding (as under the new EU savings tax arrangements) or (more innovatively) as a consequence of information exchange. We show that, irrespective of any difference in country size, it is in the interests of both countries, in terms of tax revenue, that all revenue collected from non‐residents be transferred to the residence country—which would entail taking the EU practice even further from the norm, but is currently the standard in relation to information exchange. A withholding scheme with revenue fully reallocated in this way gives both countries more revenue than does information sharing, whatever the allocation under the latter.     

Feasibility of Effective Public–Private R&D Collaboration: the Case of Cooperative R&D Agreements

Since the mid–1980s, the federal government has supported collaborative R&D in private consortia and between industry and national research laboratories. One justification for these activities is that they can solve ‘public goods’ problems associated with producing non–appropriable, technology–base research. However, these efforts also create formidable contracting problems similar to those experienced in defense weapons systems development. We examine the early history of collaborations with the national laboratories, to ascertain whether or not this policy is working effectively, and find that the problems seem to be outweighing the benefits mentioned, in many cases.     

The retirement wealth of the baby boom generation

The paper compares the well-being of the baby boom generation (ages 40-55) in 2001 with the same age group in 1983. I find little evidence that their relative position deteriorated over the period. By some indicators, this generation has seen an improvement. In terms of income, the 40-55 age group was at about the same relative position in 2001 as in 1983. In terms of conventional wealth, there was some slippage over the period. In terms of mean augmented wealth (net worth plus pension and Social Security wealth), their relative position improved somewhat but in terms of median augmented wealth there was again some slippage.     

On a general class of one-factor models for the term structure of interest rates

We propose a general one-factor model for the term structure of interest rates which based upon a model for the short rate. The dynamics of the short rate is described by an appropriate function of a time-changed Wiener process. The model allows for perfect fitting of given term structure of interest rates and volatilities, as well as for mean reversion. Moreover, every type of distribution of the short rate can be achieved, in particular, the distribution can be concentrated on an interval. The model includes several popular models such as the generalized Vasicek (or Hull-White) model, the Black-Derman-Toy, Black-Karasinski model, and others. There is a unified numerical approach to the general model based on a simple lattice approximation which, in particular, can be chosen as a binomial or -nomial lattice with branching probabilities .     

The impact of China's millennium labour restructuring program on firm performance and employee earnings1

Around the turn of the century, China experienced perhaps the largest labour restructuring program in the world. This paper uses a new dataset of Chinese industrial enterprises to examine what leads to downsizing, and tries to understand the effects of labour downsizing on firms’ technical efficiency, financial performance and employee wages. We find that downsizing is more prevalent in state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), and is more likely when enterprises are older, larger and have higher excess capacity. For both SOEs and private firms, downsizing is more likely when the prices of their products drop, but private firms respond more dramatically. Moreover, downsizing has serious short‐term costs in terms of total factor productivity (TFP). For mild downsizing, private firms suffer more deterioration in productivity. The distribution of surplus after downsizing is more favourable to labour in SOEs. For severe downsizing, both SOEs and private firms exhibit lower TFP growth with similar magnitudes. Our findings imply that private firms emphasize profit goals, while SOEs place a greater weight on labour protection.     

Do Federal Home Loan Bank membership and advances increase bank risk-taking?

Since the early 1990s, commercial banks have turned to Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLBank) advances to plug the gap between loan and deposit growth. Is this trend worrisome? On the one hand, advances implicitly encourage risk by insulating borrowers from market discipline. On the other, advances give borrowers greater flexibility to managing interest rate and liquidity risk. And access to FHLBank funding encourages members to reshape their balance sheets in ways that could lower credit risk. Using quarterly financial and supervisory data for banks from 1992 to 2005, we assess the effect of FHLBank membership and advances on risk. The evidence suggests liquidity and leverage risks rose modestly, but interest-rate risk declined somewhat. Credit risk and overall failure risk were largely unaffected. Although the evidence suggest FHLBank membership and advances have had, at best, only a modest impact on bank risk, we caution that our sample period constitutes one observation and that moral hazard could be pronounced if leverage ratios revert to historical norms.     

Financial markets’ behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance

Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries’ fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries’ initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations: Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deficit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices.     

Property taxation as incentive for cost control: Empirical evidence for utility services in Norway

Recent theoretical research suggests that property taxation has incentive effects that can help control cost problems in the public sector. The institutional setting in Norway allows this first empirical investigation of the incentive effect of property taxation, since we can separate between local governments with and without property tax. The raw data of the variation in the unit cost level for utilities show that local governments with property tax have 20% lower unit cost. Using both linear regression and propensity score matching, we are not able to wash out the difference in unit costs. Our interpretation is that having a visible and controversial local tax related to property stimulates voter interest in local government activities and thereby may help cost control.     

Nonlinear Alternatives to Unit Root Tests and Public Finances Sustainability: Some Evidence from Latin American and Caribbean Countries*

We analyse the sustainability of government debt for Latin American and Caribbean countries employing unit‐root tests with nonlinear alternative hypotheses and examine the robustness of our results against those from unit‐root tests with breaks and threshold nonlinearities. We show that, in general support for sustainability substantially improves when nonlinear mean reversion is taken into account. We also find that the results obtained from applying various tests with nonlinear alternatives, although broadly consistent, are not identical. This suggests that reliance on a single unit‐root test for assessing fiscal policy sustainability may be misleading.