Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors

This paper provides clear-cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread itself, often used in the literature as a predictive regressor of economic activity. These two factors reflect different information about future economic activity, which is smoothed out by the term spread. The paper shows that the slope factor has predictive power on future economic activity over longer horizons ahead, and thus may be interpreted as reflecting future business cycle conditions. On the other hand, the curvature factor, which enters the term spread with opposite sign than the slope factor, has predictive power on shorter movements of future economic activity which may be associated with changes in the current stance of monetary policy. These results hold for a number of world developed economies.     

Leading national brands facing store brands competition: Is price competitiveness the only thing that matters?

Store Brands (SBs) have experienced a strong increase in both value and unit sales internationally during the last decades; thus their market share has been constantly growing. Starting from these considerations, the present work aims at deepening the topic of inter-brand competition within the FMCG market and, in particular, the market share trade-off between Leading National Brands (LNBs) and Store Brands. Our empirical analysis is based on panel data about 322 product categories sold within the Modern Grocery Distribution stores in the 2010–2013 period. Results obtained show: (i) the existence of a relationship between the increase in the LNB-SB price gap and the switching of market share from the former towards the latter; (ii) the consolidation of a change in consumers' purchasing preference in favor of SBs; (iii) the existence of an inverse relationship between the inter-brand competition intensity and the retail branding life cycle evolutionary stage, which is different for each product category.     

Analyzing the spatial–temporal evolution of a gateway’s hinterland: A case study of Shanghai,China

This paper analyzes the spatial–temporal evolution of the attractiveness of a country’s gateway for its international trade, using Shanghai as an example. The attractiveness is regressed on the transportation facilities and geographical conditions. Seaport development is found to have a major positive impact, followed by inland waterway, highway, and airport development. These positive impacts decrease with the need for highway haulage and with the distance from Shanghai—showing an inverse U-shape distribution. Rail appears to have a U-shape distribution, implying a low application of multimodal transportation. A geographical pattern for the impacts of different transportation modes is delineated.     

Estimation of interregional input–output table using hybrid algorithm of the RAS method and real-coded genetic algorithm

In this paper, we propose a method for improving the accuracy of the estimation of interregional input–output tables, by combining the RAS method and the real-coded Genetic Algorithm (GA); these are simple representative methods for the estimation of an interregional input–output table. By comparing the performance evaluation results obtained using the proposed method, the RAS method, and Simulated Annealing, we verified that the combination of the genetic algorithm and the RAS method can enhance the estimation accuracy of an interregional input–output table. In addition, performance is further enhanced by adjusting GA parameters.     

Optimal transit fare and service frequency of a nonlinear origin-destination based fare structure

This paper proposes a new nonlinear distance-based transit fare structure, which is measured by a function of the Euclidean distance between the origin and destination stations, termed as Origin-Destination (OD)-based fare. The novel fare structure encourages passengers to freely choose the most efficient trip plan. An optimization model is formulated based on a three-party game (involving the transport authority, transit company, and passenger) to determine the optimal fare function and frequency. An artificial bee colony algorithm is adopted to solve the model. Finally, a numerical example is provided to verify the proposed method.     

The emergence of home-based accommodations in Iran: A study of self-organization

This paper examines the Iranian home-based accommodation sector using the theory of self-organization. With the aim of identifying the sector's organizing principles, interviews were conducted with the accommodation operators, providing 117 statements which were linked based on their key ideas and/or words. Using UCINET6, a network diagram of five organizing principles were identified: collective identity, balanced legitimacy, local embeddedness, mindful market, and networked finance. While the combination of these organizing principles is interpreted within the Iranian context, broad assumptions can be inferred. It is speculated that a collective aiming to organize itself needs to be considerate of its interactions with members of the collective, the authoritative body, the local community, the market, and capital. Additionally, each separate organizing principle might have relevance for small businesses in various industries. The study contributes to the commercial home and home-based accommodation literature while also providing insights into tourism development in Iran. Furthermore, the method used to identify organizing principles is considered novel and can be used with other collectives.     

Ethical leadership and its impact on service innovative behavior: The role of LMX and job autonomy

This study examined the effect of ethical leadership on service innovative behavior of employees at small and medium sized tourist hotels in Uttarakhand, India. It has forwarded an integrated model that highlights the relationship between ethical leadership and employees' service innovative behavior while interacting through leader-member exchange and job autonomy. Using a sample of 468 customer contact employees and their 117 supervisors, hierarchical regression was conducted to establish the relationship. Findings of the study revealed that ethical leadership promoted service innovative behavior of the hotel employees mediated through leader-member exchanges. Further, it was also found that the level of service innovative behavior was commensurate to the perception of employee job autonomy. Based on the study findings, implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Optimal dynamic reinsurance with dependent risks: variance premium principle

In this paper, we consider the optimal proportional reinsurance strategy in a risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, where the two claim number processes are correlated through a common shock component. Under the criterion of maximizing the expected exponential utility with the variance premium principle, we adopt a nonstandard approach to examining the existence and uniqueness of the optimal reinsurance strategy. Using the technique of stochastic control theory, closed-form expressions for the optimal strategy and the value function are derived for the compound Poisson risk model as well as for the Brownian motion risk model. From the numerical examples, we see that the optimal results for the compound Poisson risk model are very different from those for the diffusion model. The former depends not only on the safety loading, time, and the interest rate, but also on the claim size distributions and the claim number processes, while the latter depends only on the safety loading, time, and the interest rate.     

A Pathway Forwards for the Social Capital Metaphor

A major topic in economics is the analysis of a broad class of phenomena associated with interpersonal relationships, a topic that originally grew from theories of “social capital.” While the concept has been instrumental in bringing increased attention to social effects on economic outcomes, it has increasingly been replaced with approaches that consider instead networks and discrete interactions rather than aggregate measures of social capital. This has been an analytical improvement, but a great deal of work remains to bring empirical validity and relevancy to social network analysis. This paper presents two important approaches for achieving this, statistical analysis and agent-based modeling, and discusses their benefits, limitations, and complementary nature. Rather than waiting for either approach to achieve an ambiguous quality of maturity, integrating statistical analysis with simulation models of networks must begin now to push the frontiers of social network analysis forward.     

Aligning corporate transfer intentions and subsidiary HRM practice implementation in multinational corporations

We study HRM practice implementation in subsidiaries of multinational corporations (MNCs) and diverge from extant research by focusing on alignment, which we conceptualize as the degree to which subsidiary implementation of HRM practices corresponds with the subsidiary-specific transfer intentions of corporate headquarters. In explaining alignment we examine different aspects of the headquarters–subsidiary relationship, namely, the extent of formal control, interpersonal relationships and subsidiary strategic HRM capabilities. Based on a sample of 105 subsidiaries from 12 Nordic MNCs, the results highlight the importance of expatriates, trust and the strategic HRM capabilities of the subsidiary HR function. We conduct post hoc analyses to shed further light on (i) the relationship between our independent variables and the two separate components of alignment – corporate intentions and subsidiary implementation, and (ii) two different types of misalignment – excessive and insufficient.