Housing,mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy

What are the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (e.g., Fannie Mae)? A model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed to evaluate this question. Households can default on their mortgages via foreclosure. The bailout guarantee is a tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. Eliminating this subsidy leads to a large decline in mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare by 0.5% in consumption equivalent variation, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: it hurts low-income and low-asset households.     

房地产市场垄断、供给失灵及其治理

本文在考察我国房地产市场供求特征及其经济后果的基础上,构造了一个具有正反馈效应的概念模型。认为由房地产市场的垄断特性带来的供给失灵使得房地产潜在使用需求受到抑制,投资需求得到强化,而这两者又放大和强化了房地产供给失灵,从而解释了我国目前房地产市场房价高、房屋空置率高的矛盾现象,指出房地产问题的根源在于市场垄断下的供给失灵,并提出通过增加房屋供给和制度建设两个方面来治理供给失灵、改善房地产市场运行的政策建议。     

论住房保障制度的法律价值

住宅问题是关系民生,关系社会和谐的关键问题。一方面,住宅权是一项基本人权,建立住房保障制度是政府的法律义务,政府应建立合理的住房保障制度,保障中低收入者居者有其屋;另一方面,建立住房保障制度要以实现社会正义为价值目标,在住房保障制度的设计中应遵循差别原则,调节社会和经济利益分配,将高收入者的一部分收入适当地转移给低收入人群,使处于住房最不利地位的贫困者能够尽可能大地获得住房利益。     

The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?

The recent boom in the housing markets of most developed economies has spurred criticism that inflation targeting central banks may have neglected the build-up of financial imbalances. This paper provides a formal empirical test of such claims, using a standard program evaluation methodology to control for a possible bias due to self-selection into inflation targeting. We consider 17 industrial economies over the period 1980–2007, among which nine countries have targeted inflation at some point. We find robust evidence of a significant positive effect of inflation targeting on real house price growth and on the house price-to-rent ratio.     

Phasing out the GSEs

We develop a new model of the mortgage market that emphasizes the role of the financial sector and the government. Risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers. Both borrowers and intermediaries can default. The government provides both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance. Underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations and higher financial sector leverage. Mortgage crises occasionally turn into financial crises and government bailouts due to the fragility of the intermediaries’ balance sheets. Foreclosure crises beget fiscal uncertainty, further disrupting the optimal allocation of risk in the economy. Increasing the price of the mortgage guarantee “crowds in” the private sector, reduces financial fragility, leads to fewer but safer mortgages, lowers house prices, and raises mortgage and risk-free interest rates. Due to a more robust financial sector and less fiscal uncertainty, consumption smoothing improves and foreclosure rates fall. While borrowers are nearly indifferent to a world with or without mortgage guarantees, savers are substantially better off. While aggregate welfare increases, so does wealth inequality.     

住宅产业价值链价值分布研究——以西安市为例

利用从西安住宅市场上调研收集的数据,根据住宅产业价值链系统结构,运用构建的住宅产业价值链价值分布测算模型——熵权-模糊综合评价模型对西安市住宅产业价值链价值分布进行了剖析。研究表明,西安市住宅产业价值链存在太过于依赖土地价值与资金价值,而投资分析、建设、营销服务等阶段价值创造能力过低,以及整体价值创造水平偏低等问题。因此,建议通过完善住宅产业的外包制度、调整土地供应制度、构建合理价值分配机制、建立价值创造联盟制度、构筑住宅产业虚拟价值链与价值网络等途径,来优化西安市住宅产业价值链价值分布格局,以促进产业升级。     

Adaptation investments and homeownership

This article develops a model where ownership improves the efficiency of the housing market as it enhances the utility of housing consumption for some consumers. The model is based on an extended Hotelling–Lancaster utility approach in which the ideal variant of housing is obtainable only by adapting the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously choose housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation of the home choose ownership. This article analyses the consumer’s optimization. The model provides an explanation for the observation that homeowners typically live in larger dwelling units than tenants. It also provides an explanation for a high price of housing services tending to reduce homeownership rates.     

居民住房租赁核算及对消费率的影响——国际比较与中国的实证研究

城市化将使居民住房租赁消费成为居民收入与支出的重要组成部分.依据美国和其它发达国家的一般经验,本文分析深圳的居民住宅租赁调查案例,进而对京沪穗深进行对比研究,在此基础上测算了全国城镇居民住房租赁消费规模及时国民经济和居民消费率的影响.本文的主要结论是,居民住房租赁消费已经成为我国大城市的重要经济活动,并对居民消费率产生了显著影响.从全国范围看,随着我国城市化进程的推进,居民住房租赁是影响我国居民消费率的一个越来越重要的因素.     

深化城镇住房制度综合配套改革的总体构想（上）

改革开放以来,中国城镇住房及房地产发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但近年来也出现了较为严重的问题。本文运用“制度、行为与绩效”（ICP）的研究框架,首先分析了住房问题产生的机制性原因,即住房发展目标偏颇与制度无序导致住房相关主体的行为扭曲,进而导致住房市场的失衡。借鉴国际经验,本文对城镇住房的发展定位、总体制度体系、核心制度与配套制度等目标模式进行了系统的修正性设计。最后,本文对深化城镇住房制度综合配套改革的路线图与时间表提出了对策建议。     

Gross national accumulation

Low birth rates, longevity, family disintegration, and other factors have reduced the size of the average household. At the same time household size is shrinking, new housing offers twice the floor space per occupant of old housing. Small households are inefficient users of space, utilities, furniture, and equipment. As these factors converge, the result is over consumption of durables and vast stockpiles of possessions just awaiting disposal when the baby boom generation passes on. The rightful heirs to these possessions are themselves accumulators, and will most likely have little use for what is left to them. What does the future hold for consumption, savings, and demand for housing? Booming flea markets, bigger homes as warehouses, a decline in consumption, or an epidemic of display and collection? Public policies have limited leverage on private behavior.