我国农村公路养护管理模式研究

近年来,我国农村公路建设实现了历史性突破,但已建成的农村公路的养护管理还存在很多问题,尤其是在养护模式方面。研究和总结了我国农村公路养护管理思路,提炼出了一套"三步走"的农村公路养护管理路线,有助于推广优秀的管理经验,提高养护管理水平,开创具有地方特色的养护模式,全面提高养护质量。     

The curse of bureaucratisation or the blessings of professionalisation? Nurses’ engaged adoption of quality management in hybrid managerial positions

The paper concerns how new quality management in the Danish hospital sector has created new career and professionalisation opportunities for nurses. While the well-known dualism between the logics of professionalism and managerialism is challenged in the literature, not much is known about how engagement in the tighter steering of practice may converge with professional identities and meaningfulness in work. The paper applies a Bourdieusian and ethnographic approach to the examination of nurses’ enthusiastic involvement in quality management as they take up hybrid managerial positions in an acute care department. The findings demonstrate the importance of the material and symbolic value of scientific-bureaucratic knowledge in legitimizing quality management, achieving meaningfulness in practice and bolstering the professional role of nurses.     

Do global output gaps help forecast domestic inflation? Evidence from Phillips curves for Poland

This study confronts domestic and global views on inflation through the use of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) models estimated for headline and core inflation in Poland. We analyse the roles of the global vs. domestic output gaps in affecting price changes. We ensure that our conclusions are robust by taking into consideration various proxies for inflation expectations, imported inflation, the domestic output gap and the global output gap.Our results suggest that the global demand conditions are statistically insignificant in the majority of the estimated global versions of HNKPC, independently of the measure of them that is considered. In terms of empirical fit, and especially of the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the specifications of the Phillips curve with the domestic and global output gaps among the explanatory variables are not superior to traditional Phillips curves. Interestingly, the relative importance of the global output gap is much smaller in models that are estimated in terms of core inflation, excluding foodstuffs and energy, than in CPI inflation models. This suggests that global demand conditions affect the inflation in Poland indirectly, mainly through the prices of food and energy raw materials.The main conclusion from our study is that external factors that are already considered in the traditional hybrid versions of the new Keynesian Phillips curve are sufficient to account for global influences on prices in the domestic economy. The concept of the global output gap improves neither the explanatory nor the predictive power of HNKPC models.     

预期、混合菲利普斯曲线与中国通货膨胀动态特征

将货币因素与输入性因素（如汇率、国际石油价格等）引入新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线框架构建高阶滞后的混合菲利普斯曲线模型,并利用1995年第1季度至2013年第2季度的数据进行实证分析,结果显示：总需求变化对我国通货膨胀率的影响很小,而货币因素与输入性因素（如汇率以及国际大宗商品价格变化）成为影响我国通货膨胀率的重要因素;我国通货膨胀主要受到前瞻性预期的影响,而通胀惯性对通货膨胀水平的影响不大;相对而言,货币因素对我国通货膨胀具有最重要的影响。     

基于相依违约的上市公司担保风险度量研究

本文运用基于相依违约的混合模型度量上市公司担保风险,并进行了实证研究。结果表明:此模型能很好的预测上市公司对外担保的违约概率,可对上市公司信用进行评级;在敏感性分析中,违约概率对波动率、无风险利率和相依结构比较敏感,这能为风险管理提供一定的参考。     

Coordination in global R&D organizations: An examination of the role of subsidiary mandate and modular product architectures in dispersed R&D organizations

International research and development (R&D) operations require a significant amount of coordination between the headquarters and the subsidiaries in order to integrate the dispersed activities in one final product. This article explores what mechanisms multinational companies (MNCs) use to coordinate their overseas R&D units. Based on a multiple case study involving nine MNCs with overseas R&D subsidiaries of varying mandates, we find that R&D sites with high technology and/or market orientation tend to be coordinated by informal mechanisms while sites with little technology and/or market orientation tend to be coordinated by formal mechanisms. Furthermore, it appears that this relationship is strongly affected by the product’s architecture: while rather complex R&D activities are conducted at the systems level and at sites with high technology orientation, less complex R&D activities are conducted at the component level at sites with low technology and market orientation. Finally, the findings suggest that modular product architectures have a coordinating effect in global R&D activities which have the power to lower firms’ overall coordination effort. The findings bear important implications for the effective coordination of MNCs’ international R&D subsidiaries.     

Holt’s exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series

Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holt’s exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holt’s method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series.     

A comparison of academic performance in traditional and hybrid sections of introductory managerial accounting

This paper reports the results of a comparison of academic performance (course grade) in two sections of a principles of managerial accounting course, one held in a traditional format (classes held two days per week in a classroom setting) and one in a hybrid format (one class period held in a classroom setting and one in a web-based environment). After controlling for other factors, academic performance was not significantly associated with class delivery format (traditional or hybrid).     

欧美国家老年公寓的成功经验对我国的启示

相对于我国老年公寓的状况,欧美老年公寓的发展较为成熟。根据这一状况,从人本化住宅设计、选取具有积极暗示意义的名称、优质服务及服务氛围的营造、规模化与品牌化发展、政府社会支持等五个方面介绍了欧美老年公寓的成功经验,以期对我国老年公寓的发展提供借鉴。     

周惠敏：人生历练的历程

本案例描述了山东慧敏科技开发有限公司董事长兼总经理周惠敏女士在人生历练中铸就领导力的关键历程。从科研人员到科技公司的领导者，转型经历了坎坷，也揭示了学者型领导者实现人生价值过程中的一些共性问题。本案例描述的情况在高新技术企业及民营企业具有一定的普遍性，这类企业的高层管理者顺利实现角色转型、塑造有效的领导力始终是决定企业兴衰的关键性问题。