An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses

Our study sets out to assess the accuracy of profit forecasts made by IPOs in Hong Kong. We use a variety of measures and tests to examine the accuracy, bias, rationality, and superiority of earnings estimates. The results show that forecast accuracy compares favourably with the findings from the developed economies of Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. Forecasts are shown to be superior to the predictions from time series models. IPOs tend to underforecast in the sense that actual profits exceed the forecasts. The rationality tests show mixed results. Cross-sectional analyses of forecast accuracy have poor explanatory power although the Big Six reporting accountants are associated with smaller forecast errors.     

我国新股IPO高定价发行原因及对策——新股IPO定价模型研究初探

新股IPO三高现象一直是困扰我国证券市场健康发展的问题之一,2010年11月,中国证监会有针对性地实施了新股发行体制第二轮改革。笔者认为,此次改革之所以没有达到预期效果,主要是对三高产生的根本原因缺乏必要的研究。文章通过构建新股定价模型,从一个全新的角度探究新股IPO三高背后的根本原因,并提出了解决三高的思路与对策,丰富与创新了相关的理论。     

股权分置改革——由市场走势引发的思考

股权分置改革后,沪深两市也走出了振荡中稳步攀升的走势,上证指数上涨幅度超过40％。这意味着,经过股权分置改革,资本市场“晴雨表”功能正在逐步发挥、资产定价标准趋于合理、价值投资理念逐步形成、管理层激励机制开始发挥作用以及我国的资本市场开始与国际接轨。然而现在毕竟处于股权分置改革初期,许多历史遗留问题还没有解决,因此还要通过完善新股发行的制度安排、切实解决上市公司大股东占款问题以及遏制更强烈的虚假信息披露冲动,来巩固股权分置改革的成果。     

Empirical Study on New Issue Long-term Pricing Performance ——Subject to the Hypothesis and Proof of Shell Resource Value

This paper calculates the long-term return of the IPOs in China＇s stock market, we find that the positive abnormal return of new issues lasts for 7 months after adjusted by the market return. The author explains the long-term market performance of IPOs with the concept of ＂Shell Resource＂ and supplies the related proofs.     

IPO定价机制与中国的现实选择

IPO定价机制一般分为固定价格、拍卖以及累计投标三种基本类型。中国目前实施的询价制,属于广义上的累计投标定价机制。这种定价机制中,承销商拥有的股票差别分配权利,降低了IPO抑价水平。研究表明,询价制是目前为止现实可行的定价机制。     

IPO、公司治理与企业价值——资本成本视角的理论综述

本文认为,首次公开发行上市(IPO)是企业生命周期中的里程碑。企业IPO行为改变了公司资本结构,通过资本结构对公司治理发生积极作用(融资机制、价格机制和并购机制),使得公司治理在经营者激励、信息披露、投资者保护等方面得到改善将提升企业价值,进而实现企业价值最大化的理财目标。     

Underwriter learning about unfamiliar firms: Evidence from the history of biotech IPOS

This study examines the ability of underwriters to properly value unfamiliar firms prior to issuance. I use a sample of IPOs in biotechnology, a relatively new but thriving industry. The first American biotech IPO was in 1980. Through the end of 2004, almost 500 biotech IPOs have appeared in the public market. I find that biotechnology differs from other industries in the attributes of individual firms valued by the market. In particular, R&D and the quality of human capital (e.g., star scientists on the staff) are much more important for biotech valuations. I find also that underwriters appeared not to appreciate this distinction for early biotech IPOs; in those cases, first-day market returns were predictable by firm attributes not used by underwriters to establish IPO issue prices. I also find that underwriters have learned over time, albeit slowly. Over the 20+ years of biotech history, IPO issue prices have become more dependent on firm attributes unique to biotechs while first-day market returns have become less predictable.     

IPO发售机制之利弊分析及其改革

IPO发售机制有三种基本模式。分析中国资本市场的IPO发售机制的历史与现状，并对当前IPO发售机制所面临的问题及解决办法进行研究，旨在促进我国资本市场健康发展。     

A comparison of revenue growth at recent-IPO and established firms: The influence of SG&A, R&D and COGS

A dynamic view of the resource based theory (RBT) examines how a firm builds its resources over time, considering variations in resources' growth rates while the firm attempts to grow. Accordingly, we consider the elasticity of accumulated resources to assess conditions where these resources might serve as substitutes for rather than complements to COGS during periods of growth. We specify a production function that links aggregate resource allocation among SG&A, R&D and COGS expenses to a firm's revenue. This function yields a set of hypotheses on the elasticity of SG&A and R&D, and the productivity of COGS, while controlling for the revenue growth rate. We test these hypotheses on a dataset of 64 randomly selected firms that recently underwent an IPO, and a comparable set of 64 established public firms from four high-technology sectors. Results show that the accumulated stocks of resources can serve as substitutes for rather than complements to COGS, and the manner in which recent-IPO firms allocate and use resources differs from their established counterparts. We discuss the implications of associated elasticity and productivity results.     

IPO初始回报与创业投资参与的研究——基于我国创业板的实证研究

本文在论述国际学术界关于创业投资在企业IPO中作用理论研究的基础上,通过采用实证分析方法,对我国创业板上市的153家公司2007—2009年的数据进行研究,得出如下结论：企业IPO初始回报与是否有创业投资参与具有显著的正相关关系。同时,IPO初始回报与公司规模显著负相关,与股份发行比例显著负相关,与公司上市时年龄显著负相关,与企业上市日的上证指数收益率显著正相关,与净资产收益率显著负相关。