The predictive ability of loan loss provisions in banks – Effects of accounting standards,enforcement and incentives

In this study we compare the predictive ability of loan loss provisions with respect to actual losses under IFRS and local GAAP. The ‘incurred loss model’ of IAS 39 is a model that requires a relatively low level of judgment by preparers compared to alternative models that exist under local GAAP. We find that loan loss provisions in IFRS bank years predict future credit losses to a lesser extent than in local GAAP bank years, consistent with the incurred loss model reducing the timeliness of provisions. We also examine the interaction of standards with enforcement of financial reporting and with preparer incentives. In testing the role of enforcement from, e.g., banking supervisory authorities, we find that the benefits of local GAAP are largely limited to high-enforcement settings. Local GAAP also performs relatively better than IFRS in large and in profitable banks. This has implications for the IASB and the FASB as they prescribe the adoption of the more judgment-based expected loss model in IFRS 9 and the corresponding US GAAP standard (ASC topic 326), as well as for supervisory authorities that will enforce these standards.     

浅析内地企业员工激励性管理

要提高内地企业的激励性,就要突出公平,保持物资激励与非物资激励结合,组织目标和个人目标相结合,约束与激励结合。具体来说,内地企业需要扩大员工职业生涯发展空间,强化绩效考核的反馈面谈,严格实行合同化管理,实施全面薪酬战略,加强员工培训,注重内部晋升。     

An Agency Perspective on the Costs and Benefits of Privatization

This paper proposes a unified theoretical framework to discuss the costs and benefits of privatization using the recent advances of Incentive Theory. I begin by presenting a simple model in which the State (the principal) delegates a task (e.g., the production of a public good) to the private sector (the agent). I give and discuss conditions for the “Irrelevance Theorem” due to Sappington and Stiglitz [Sappington, D., & Stiglitz, J. (1987) Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 6, 567–582] to hold under complete contracting. I then show how various contract incompletenesses can make either public or private ownership optimal. Finally, I provide critical assessments of these results. I thank Patrick Rey and Wilfried Zantman for useful comments on an earlier draft. The excellent comments of two referees have also improved substantially the presentation and organization of the paper. I am deeply indebted to Denis Gromb for his extremely detailed comments.     

银行高层激励:美国20家银行调查

本文对 2 0 0 3年美国福布斯 50 0强排名中选出的 2 0家银行 1 992年至 2 0 0 2年的数据进行分析 ,研究包括董事局主席和CEO在内的高级管理人员的收入结构、收入时间序列变化 ,以及内部收入级差的特征 ,找出美国大银行高层报酬与激励中一些定量的、带有规律性的特点 ,对形成这些报酬特点的原因作初步探讨 ,作为中国银行业改革借鉴。     

外资开放引入的创新虹吸是否依然有效——基于知识产权价值激励的动态检验

在全面开放新格局与创新型国家建设战略驱动下,科学研判外资开放的创新虹吸效应至关重要,亟待破解的问题是如何有效撬动外资引入的创新溢出红利。基于内外技术势差探讨FDI创新虹吸的演化逻辑,阐释知识产权价值激励对FDI创新溢出的影响机制,基于中国（内地）30个省份面板数据实证研究发现,外资开放引入的创新虹吸效应并非静态不变,对区域创新发展呈现出边际递减的抑制性影响;借助高强度知识产权价值激励能够有效调节FDI的创新溢出轨迹,以“U”型规律打开外资引入的创新虹吸通道,驱动区域创新发展;知识产权价值激励的调节效应存在一定的空间异质性,对东部地区和中部地区FDI创新溢出的撬动更为有效。研究结论为优化外资开放引入与知识产权价值激励的共轨溢出,赋能创新型国家建设,提供了新的经验依据和路径启示。     

Power in the multinational corporation in industry equilibrium

Recent theories of the multinational corporation introduce the property rights model of the firm and examine whether to integrate or outsource firm activities locally or to a foreign country. This paper focuses instead on the internal organization of the multinational corporation by examining the power allocation between headquarters and subsidiaries. We provide a framework to analyse the interaction between the decision to serve the local market by exporting or FDI, market access and the optimal mode of organization of the multinational corporation. We find that subsidiary managers are given decision power to run the firm at intermediate levels of host country competition. We then provide comparative statics on the optimal organization of the multinational corporation for changes in fixed FDI entry costs, trade costs, as well as changes in information technology.      

On the design of incentive mechanisms in environmental policy

The objective of this paper is to present environmental policy as a simple game in two stages within a principal-agent framework. At the outset the authority adopts a transfer payment rule. Then the firms react by carrying out abatement activities, based on their chosen levels of emission and output. Next the authority measures the emissions (and residual profit of the industry) and revises the level of its instrument. Then the game starts again. Our purpose is to narrow the scope of ad hoc incentive schemes by characterizing families of optimal linear schemes.We thank two anonymous referees for their valuable suggestions. We have also benefited from comments from I.-M. Andréasson, J. B. Opschoor, H. Verbruggen and the other members of the Task Force II: Environmental Policy instruments of the European Science Foundation Programme: Environment, Science and Society. Wang acknowledges support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).     

环境创新税收政策解构与重构：由单一工具转向组合工具

税收政策工具内置的行为诱导、社会公平、经济发展等性能,使其成为激励环境创新的重要手段。税收政策工具可以解构出环境税与税收优惠两大核心政策工具。其中,环境税将污染行为的外部成本内部化,向企业传递价格压力信号,迫使其作出缴税、减产抑或投入环境创新的抉择,本质上是一种反向压力工具;税收优惠则是一种正向鼓励工具,以减轻税负的方式将应收税款让渡于创新研发,将污染企业向投入环境创新的方向引导。两个政策子工具虽然作用机制相反,但政策目标一致,通过科学、精细的税制设计,实现不同政策功能协同互补,以发挥组合工具“1+1＞2”的政策效应,最大化提升企业环境创新积极性。此外,还应统筹税收政策工具与其它政策工具的组合使用。     

税收优惠政策对高技术产业创新效率的影响

基于2000-2017年《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》中29个省市面板数据,首先采用DEA Malmquist指数模型测算了中国高技术产业创新效率,在此基础上运用断点回归方法分析了税收优惠政策对我国高技术产业创新效率的影响。研究结果表明：①总体上以专利为产出指标的创新效率高于以新产品销售收入为产出指标的创新效率,并且以新产品销售收入为产出指标的创新效率处于较低水平,由此表明我国高科研投入与低实际产出的矛盾依然存在;②税收优惠政策对我国高技术产业创新效率有显著正向影响,税收优惠政策对技术研发阶段与科技转化阶段的影响效应不同;③税收优惠政策与企业规模、政府资助合理匹配可放大政策效果。     

Changes in trade and domestic distortions affecting China’s agriculture

This paper assesses the implications of China’s trade and domestic policies for incentives to producers in China. It uses a price comparison methodology (nominal rates of assistance—at the border and the farmgate), with adjustments for exchange rate distortions in the first part of the sample period (1981–1994). On average, distortions to agricultural incentives have been reduced. In the early 1980s, on average, China’s domestic prices were far below international prices. There were substantial variations, however, between imported (which were being protected) and exported goods. During the 1980s and 1990s the gap between domestic and international prices for both imports and exports narrowed initially mainly due to the elimination of domestic policy distortions. Between the mid-1990s and 2004, trade liberalization policy furthered narrowed the gap between world and China farmgate prices. By the mid-2000s, China’s agriculture was operating with only small price distortions.