Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

On the timeliness of tax reform

This paper analyzes efficient government reactions to unanticipated tax avoidance. Quickly reforming tax laws to reduce the effectiveness of new tax avoidance techniques prevents widespread adoption, but indirectly encourages the rapid development of new avoidance methods if prior users are permitted to retain their tax benefits. Tax reforms that immediately prevent new avoidance mean that innovators need not fear imitation by competitors, and cannot rely on copying the innovations of others. Such an activist reform agenda diverts greater resources into tax avoidance activity, and might thereby lead to a faster rate of tax base erosion, than would a less reactive government strategy. Efficient government policy therefore entails either the retroactive elimination of tax savings, with possible associated costs, or else a deliberate pace of tax reform in response to taxpayer innovation.     

Asymmetric FDI and tax-treaty bargaining: theory and evidence

Tax treaties are often viewed as a mechanism for eliminating tax competition, however, this approach ignores the need for bargaining over the treaty's terms. This paper focuses on how bargaining can affect the withholding taxes set under the treaty. In a simple framework, we develop hypotheses about patterns in treaty tax rates. A key determinant for these patterns is the relative size of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity. In plausible situations, more asymmetric countries will negotiate treaties with higher tax rates. This theory is then tested using 1992 data from US and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) bilateral tax treaties. Overall, the data supports the prediction that greater asymmetric FDI activity increases the negotiated tax rates.     

中国:深化事业单位改革,改善公共服务提供

改善事业单位的绩效,对于提高公共服务的质量,适应中国所确定的建设小康社会的目标,落实“以人为本”的发展观,具有非常关键的意义。虽然过去以“推向市场”为目标的改革取得了很大成就,但同时也在公共服务领域引入了一些不合意的激励机制。为了改善公共服务,中国需要进行全面、协调的事业单位改革,其中包括重新界定政府的角色和从商业性活动中退出,改革公共财政以便更好地为公共服务付费,允许非国有部门提供更多的公共产品,加强公共部门内部的问责机制,建立绩效管理和监督体制。由于事业单位的复杂性和多样化特征,改革的设计与实施必须充分考虑不同部门和不同地区的具体环境以及对员工的影响。因此,有必要在中央层面建立一个跨部门的改革领导小组对事业单位改革进行指导和监督。     

我国地区之间实际收入差距小于名义收入差距 --加入地区间价格差异后的一项研究

影响地区间实际生活水平差异的因素包括居民名义收入和地区间价格水平差异两个方面。用价格水平对名义收入调整后才是地区间真实的收入差异。本文对我国36个城市人均可支配收入进行了价格调整,发现城市间真实生活水平的差异小于货币收入表示的名义收入差距。     

中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析

本文在测算和分析1982—2002年省区全要素生产率(TFP)的基础上进行TFP的收敛检验,并与收入(劳均GDP)的收敛模式做了对比分析。分析表明TFP解释了我国省区收入差距的主要部分;我们应用OLS、PanelData固定效应估计方法和DynamicPanelData(一阶差分GMM)方法进行收敛检验,得出的结论是:TFP与收入的收敛模式具有很大的相似性,全国范围内没有绝对收敛,只有条件收敛,但是TFP的收敛速度明显高于收入的收敛速度。三大地区中只有东部地区存在俱乐部收敛现象。而且,我国TFP与收入的收敛模式与世界范围的TFP和收入的收敛模式具有很大的相似性。     

健康风险冲击对农户收入的影响

本文基于中国8个省份、1354个农户、跨度15年的微观面板数据,测算了大病冲击对于农户长期收入的影响以及健康风险冲击持续的时间。我们发现:(1)大病冲击在随后的12年里对于农户人均纯收入都有显著的负面影响;(2)大病冲击对于农户的短期与中期影响使得患病户人均纯收入平均降低5%—6%;(3)健康风险冲击的长期影响可持续大约15年,并且冲击对于中低收入农户的影响更为严重。     

The sequencing of reform in transition economies

In this paper, we examine the consequences of sequencing on the progress of reforms in transition economies. The paper uses panel logit models to determine whether or not progress in some reforms enhances the prospects for other reforms. We find that progress on small-scale privatization is associated with advances in several other reforms, perhaps because small-scale privatization creates lobbies for reform. Our estimations suggest that a comprehensive program of small-scale privatization is needed to stimulate large-scale privatization, trade, and banking reform in a country that has undertaken little reform. Moreover, if restructuring is to occur banking reform is necessary. We also find that relaxing the fiscal constraint stimulates large-scale privatization, restructuring, and trade reform. Finally, we find that negotiations about EU accession negotiations advance the transition but only in banking reform and competition policy. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 835–850.     

The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?

This paper studies determinants of income inequality using a newly assembled panel of 16 countries over the entire twentieth century. We focus on three groups of income earners: the rich (P99–100), the upper middle class (P90–99), and the rest of the population (P0–90). The results show that periods of high economic growth disproportionately increases the top percentile income share at the expense of the rest of the top decile. Financial development is also pro-rich and the outbreak of banking crises is associated with reduced income shares of the rich. Trade openness has no clear distributional impact (if anything openness reduces top shares). Government spending, however, is negative for the upper middle class and positive for the nine lowest deciles but does not seem to affect the rich. Finally, tax progressivity reduces top income shares and when accounting for real dynamic effects the impact can be important over time.     

中国社会保障税税制设计的探讨——基于企业增值税代替工资总额为税基的税制设计构想

对于中国社会保障税税制的设计,以企业增值税代替现行的工资总额为税基,把“增值税”作为社会统筹部分的社会保障税税基;在提出中国社会保障税设计应遵循的原则基础上,进行社会保险税税制要素设计的若干构想;最后,分析以“增值税”为税基可能出现的问题及其完善。