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Subjects update prior information simultaneously versus sequentially. The mean prediction is remarkably close to the correct Bayesian estimate with simultaneous information, but differs significantly conditional on whether good news precedes bad news or vice versa. 相似文献
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This is an empirical study on the growth impact of Information and Communication Technologies using industry-level data for the US and the EU industries over the period 1980-2000. A panel data approach is employed to estimate the ICT effect using the system GMM and the pooled mean group panel data estimators. The results vary depending on the period, the region, and the type of industry considered. The GMM estimates suggest a significant ICT effect on growth during the 90s both in the US and in the EU. This effect for the EU was strong in the early 90s and weakened afterwards, as opposed to the US where it strengthened in the late 90s. The results of the pooled mean group estimator confirm that the long run growth contribution of ICT was significantly positive in the industries of both regions and over the entire period 1980-2000. However, it seems that the productivity effects of ICT are mainly present in the industries which are either ICT producers or heavy ICT users. 相似文献
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Béla Nagy J. Doyne Farmer Jessika E. Trancik John Paul GonzalesAuthor vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(8):1356-1364
Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable. 相似文献
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This study examines the market's reaction to dividend omission announcements and finds that if dividends are skipped to preserve cash for good investments, investors do not necessarily regard the omission as negative information. Markets penalize firms for dividend omissions only in the absence of a good stream of investments. In addition, the positive relation between investment opportunity and abnormal stock returns around the announcements is stronger when the level of information asymmetry between management and the rest of the market participants is low. Additional tests reveal that good omitters overcome underperformance faster in the post period. Overall, the results suggest that financial markets interpret differently the information conveyed in the announcement of dividend omission depending on the firm's future prospects. 相似文献
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Brian P. Brown Alex R. Zablah Danny N. Bellenger Wesley J. Johnston 《International Journal of Research in Marketing》2011,28(3):194-204
The dominant perspective on organizational buying behavior suggests that buyers tend to rely on objective criteria when making product choice decisions and that the potential influence of subjective cues, such as brands, on buyer decision making decreases with increasing risk. An alternative perspective, confirmed in this study by in-depth interviews with various managers, suggests that brands serve as a risk-reduction heuristic, whereby the influence of brands on decision making increases as a function of risk. Building on risk and information processing theories, this research builds on these complementary perspectives to propose that risk and brand sensitivity relate in a U-shaped manner, where brand sensitivity is highest in relatively low- or high-risk situations. The results of scenario- and survey-based field studies—involving 206 and 180 members of buying centers, respectively—suggest that both perspectives have merit and support the proposed nonlinear relationship. Moreover, the findings reveal that the risk-brand sensitivity relationship is moderated by competitive intensity, such that the linear (negative) and quadratic (positive) effects are stronger when competitive intensity is low. 相似文献
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Exploring the use of travel information – identifying contextual market segmentation in Seoul, Korea
Chang-Hyeon Joh Backjin Lee Miyoung Bin Theo Arentze Harry Timmermans 《Journal of Transport Geography》2011,19(6):1245-1251
As the amount of information is rapidly growing, and ubiquitous urban environments are emerging, the question which kind of information to provide is a major challenge for commercial and public travel-information service providers alike. This paper reports the analyses of recent data, collected in Metropolitan Seoul, about the acquisition of travel information. The study applies CHAID analysis to find homogeneous segments in travel information acquisition. Findings indicate that contextual variables are crucial to explain information acquisition behaviour, depending on decision context. The implication is that both socioeconomic and contextual variables are important to better understand the acquisition (and provision) of travel information. The results have important implications for managers and policy-makers, in particular in the way they respond to dynamic, contextual market segmentation. 相似文献
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转型经济中的可信承诺问题研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
可信承诺问题是转型经济体的一个重要问题。使承诺可信的途径有外生和内生两种。内生途径大体相当于博弈论中所强调的“声誉机制”,而外生途径则蕴含在一系列的制度安排之中,包括信息、权力和资源的分散化以及充分的竞争等。本文将以转型经济中两类重要的可信承诺问题———软预算约束问题和棘轮效应问题———的有关模型研究来说明我们的观点。 相似文献