Does preventive regulation reduce stock price synchronicity? Evidence from Chinese annual report comment letters

Based on a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2015 to 2018, this paper studies the impact of annual report comment letters (ARCLs) on firm stock price synchronicity. We find that after firms receive ARCLs, their stock price synchronicity decreases. Moreover, the longer the ARCLs and the more negative the ARCLs’ tone, the lower the resulting stock price synchronicity. The mechanism test shows that after firms receive ARCLs, the firms’ information disclosure increases in quantity and quality, external media attention increases, and the firms’ governance improves, reducing their stock price synchronicity. Further research shows that this negative association is more significant in firms with higher information asymmetry. This paper shows that the ARCL, an innovative application of the capital market supervision philosophy, is conducive to improving the quality of listed firms and to the healthy development of the capital market.     

Information overload and fake news sharing: A transactional stress perspective exploring the mitigating role of consumers’ resilience during COVID-19

The spread of fake news in social networks has become a major concern for various sectors of society, including retail and service providers, some of whom have suffered from decreasing sales due to misinformation consumers shared online. The current COVID-19 crisis has added to the surrounding hysteria, as fake news during crises can heighten negative behavioural responses in consumers, such as irrational panic buying or taking false medical precautionary measures. In fact, driven by the ubiquitous social media landscape, the dissemination of misinformation and the overarching overabundance of information have been major challenges of the pandemic. Given that current research offers little insight into the processes behind the sharing of fake news among consumers and that research on consumer-centred mitigating mechanisms is missing, this study explores the relationship between information overload, fake news sharing, and the overlooked concept of consumers' resilience as a potential shield as viewed through the lens of the current crisis. Structural equation modelling is applied to cross-sectional data from 241 social media users. Drawing from theories of transactional stress and psychological resilience, it is demonstrated that information overload leads to an increased likelihood of fake news sharing by increasing consumers' psychological strain. Furthermore, the study shows that consumers' resilience has the power to mitigate the drastic effects of this negative chain of influence by inhibiting each of the processual components. The results have important implications extending beyond crises. Measures should be taken to enhance consumers’ resilience amidst technology-induced stressors while altering the information environment confronting consumers.     

去伪存真:油价趋势与股票市场——来自“一带一路”35国的经验证据

油价波动深刻影响全球经济,严重时会造成全球股市动荡,甚至引发系统性金融风险。然而油价中的信息噪音严重阻碍国际油价对股票市场的预测效果。本文提出的移动平均法可有效减弱信息噪音,研究表明,本文基于移动平均法构建的油价趋势因子对“一带一路”沿线国家股票市场具有良好的样本内和样本外可预测性。进一步研究发现,国际油价波动对产油国和非产油国股票市场的影响存在非对称性。本文为国际油价冲击股票市场提供了新的有力证据,同时本文研究成果提示了油价风险,对维持我国股票市场稳定,保持金融稳定具有一定意义。     

When Are Investors Rational?

Taking our cue from certain recent advances in experimental psychology, the authors propose a plausible theory of conflict between rationality and inherent behavioral biases of investors. In this theory no investor is fully rational or fully behavioral at all times. An investor faces a continuum between behavioral and rational positions. A movement toward rationality is a choice; it is costly to be fully rational which requires serious mental calculations. On the other hand, there could be some benefits to rationality in special circumstances that compensate for the costs. Using a unique and extensive investor-level database, the authors show that the degree of nonrationality decreases as rational behavior becomes more attractive. In the empirical setting, the proxy for rational behavior is investor's use of private predisclosure information during earnings announcement periods, while the disposition effect they display serves as an estimate of their behavioral bias. The paper contributes to the existing literature in several dimensions.     

Portfolio concentration and mutual fund performance

Mutual fund managers should choose to increase their portfolio concentration when their information set is valuable enough that the benefits of the expected increase in alpha more than offsets the costs of the expected increase in idiosyncratic volatility. Consistent with that idea, we find that fund performance improves after concentration increases. Because the expected costs of increased concentration vary between funds and over time, the required expected benefits before managers choose to increase concentration should also vary. Among other results, we show that the concentration-performance relation is stronger for funds with less institutional ownership and when investor sentiment is low.     

Inconsistent Signals,Earnings Announcements,and Market Uncertainty

We test the proposition in Johnstone (2016) that new information may lead to higher, rather than lower, uncertainty about firms’ future payoffs. Based on the Bayesian rule, we hypothesize earnings news that is inconsistent with investors’ prior belief will lead to higher market uncertainty. Using earnings signals in the past few quarters to proxy for investors’ prior belief, we find supporting evidence that, relative to consistent earnings news, inconsistent news results in an increase in market uncertainty measured by implied volatility. Inconsistent earnings news has a larger effect on market uncertainty when prior beliefs are stronger and when the news is negative. Overall, our evidence highlights the importance of prior belief and inconsistent signals in understanding the effect of earnings news on market uncertainty.     

What's inside matters: The impact of ingredient branding on consumers' purchasing behaviours in services

Ingredient branding has been widely used as a marketing strategy to create added value and enhance market competitiveness in a variety of durable and non-durable product categories. Despite its prevalence in practice, current research into ingredient branding offers little guidance for the services sector and is, in any event, limited to studies that analyse intentions rather than actual behaviours. This paper contributes to the literature by using scenario-based and field experiments to examine the impact of ingredient branding on consumers' purchasing behaviours in a service context. The scenario-based experiments highlight the mediating role of quality perception on willingness to pay, which increases by up to 9 % for a food item that is ingredient branded. The results of the field experiment show that the actual sales of an item increase by 40 % when it is ingredient branded. Consequently, this paper provides both theoretical and managerial insights into the favourable impact of ingredient branding on consumers’ purchasing behaviour. This paper concludes by proposing an agenda for future research.     

An Investigation of Consumer Subjective Knowledge in Frontline Interactions

It is no secret that the consumer journey produces retail consumers who have varying levels of subjective knowledge about a purchase prior to a retail interaction. This observation leads to a common conclusion that the need for frontline employees (FLEs) in retail environments is diminishing. Nevertheless, retailers invest heavily in staffing and training FLEs. As such, understanding pre-encounter subjective knowledge and how FLEs should address it is critical, yet the topic is largely overlooked in the marketing literature. Thus, we investigate consumer subjective knowledge via an information diagnosticity lens to provide guidance on how subjective knowledge operates when the information in question is scarce/known, tacit/explicit, and specific/general. The results of three experiments reveal consumers can be classified as traditional, well-calibrated, or poorly-calibrated based on their subjective knowledge prior to meeting with an FLE – with each type requiring different FLE approaches to improve both consumers’ willingness to buy and acceptance of FLE recommendations.     

考虑影响不对称性的创新扩散与网络结构协同演化建模：基于信息熵与累积优势的仿真研究

创新扩散发生于社会系统中并通常与社会系统存在交互作用。网络是体现社会系统的重要手段，但已有研究中的扩散网络多为无向网络且具有静态或外生动态性质，上述处理方式忽视或无法体现扩散与以网络形式出现的社会系统的协同演化以及个体间的不对称影响。基于有向网络，提出能够体现创新扩散与网络协同演化的描述性框架，从信息搜寻与降低认知失调视角出发，基于信息熵与累积优势机制，在个体层面构造网络演化与创新采纳数学模型。在RepastSimphony2.7开发平台下，利用基于Java的智能体建模方法展开系统仿真实验。基于实验数据的描述性结果揭示，动态网络与静态网络下的创新扩散存在显著不同，网络结构演化将强化节点出度的不均衡状况，更优的扩散结果往往与更不均衡的节点出度分布同时出现，其它因素包括大众传播与人际传播等也会影响扩散与网络的协同演化；交互作用存在于控制变量间。推断性结果确认了控制变量影响与交互作用的普遍存在。