Investment in Swedish manufacturing: Analysis and forecasts

This paper uses a neoclassical investment model extended with installation costs for capital, agency costs for investment financing, and the possibility of the firm being output constrained as a framework for an empirical analysis of investment behaviour in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The theory is implemented within a multivariate error-correction approach on data covering the time period 1951 to 1995, and we gain the following main results: (1) Tobins average Q is not the sole determinant of investment, neither in the short nor in the long run, and other variables like real output and capital gearing also affect investment activity; (2) the out-of-sample forecasts of the model track the evolution of actual investment growth quite impressively, especially at short- and medium-term horizons (1–2 years); (3) a relative equity-price variable is shown to constitute a good approximation of average Q, both for empirical modelling in general and forecasting in particular.Jel classification: C32, E22, E27We would like to thank Bob Chirinko, Stefan Palmqvist, Anders Vredin, seminar participants at Sveriges Riksbank, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Thanks also to Jan Södersten, Uppsala University, who provided us with most of the data for this analysis. All correspondence to Per Jansson.First version received: July 2000/Final version received: November 2002     

Modularität in der verteilten Entwicklung komplexer Systeme: Chancen, Grenzen, Implikationen

In complex systems development, firms need to ensure the effective interplay of numerous interdependent elements. In order to still reap the benefits of specialization and division of labor, decomposing a system into modules with well-defined interfaces is considered an efficient design principle. However, a number of studies have recently started to explore the fundamental limits and implications of modularity from the perspectives of evolutionary economics and complexity theory. Because complex systems are at best “nearly decomposable” and because boundedly rational designers cannot account for all interdependencies, modular systems are never free from (potentially unknown) intermodular interdependencies that impede their fully autonomous and distributed development. As complexity is rising in various domains, a fundamental understanding of the contributions, limitations and implications of modularity in distributed systems development becomes necessary and offers broad opportunities for future research.     

物质能量循环与城市环境保护和建设

正确认识水和磷的循环作用及其丰度和效益,开发得当,将为环境保护和建设发挥出巨大的作用,反之,也可能产生负面的影响,文章以千岛湖畔淳安县为例,生动地阐明一个地区的物质能量循环和生物自然净化作用对城市环境保护和建设的相互作用。     

县域尺度的国土主体功能区划研究——以江苏省海安县为例

国土主体功能区划不同于以往各类区划,它所面向的区域是功能属性更为突出的综合性区域,因此,需要区划方法的革新;以江苏海安县为实证区域,构建国土主体功能区划指标体系,均质类因子按乡镇单元赋值,扩散型因子结合服务设施空间扩散特点以50cm×50cm网格单元进行赋值,并加权求和计算出三大指标分值和总分值;综合运用矩阵判别法和叠置分析法将县域国土划分为4类主体功能区。     

一种新的平滑频率扫描方式及其实现

工程中常用的匀速频率扫描方式在频率拐点处的瞬时频率变化率 较大,针对此缺点,提出了一种新的频率扫描方式——平滑频率扫描,并推导出平滑扫描的 数学表达式。利用MATLAB进行建模仿真表明,平滑频率扫描可以有效减少扫描在频率拐点处 的瞬 时频率变化率,提高接收端的捕获概率。实际工程应用证明,该平滑频率扫描方式有效可行 。     

略论建立国家矿产储量库

一些矿山资源日渐枯竭,新探明的矿山储量赶不上需要。解决这一问题的关键在“储量商品化”,并形成完善的市场机制,建议建立国家矿产储量库,这可以发挥四方面作用。在建库的同时,并解决储量价格,定量定质,储量分类分级的问题。     

区域生态系统服务功能价值评估研究——以雅安市为例

生态系统服务功能价值评估是生态补偿的基础工作之一.在比较分析不同生态系统价值评估方法的基础上,借鉴Constanza区域生态价值评估法,引入社会阶段发展系数,重构区域生态系统服务价值评估模型,并以雅安市为例对模型进行了验证.结果表明:该评估模型不仅为生态系统服务价值的评估提供一种相对简单、便捷的动态评价方法,而且能够通过社会阶段发展系数去反映不同社会经济状况下人们对生态系统服务的动态意愿支付结果,对政府制定相应的补偿标准,进一步构建生态补偿机制提供参考.     

杭州市土地利用结构与效率研究

土地是一种不可再生资源,杭州市人多地少,经济发达,土地的供需矛盾突出。目前,杭州城市土地最突出的问题是供应紧张与工业利用效率低下并存。比较杭州与国内外主要城市的土地利用状况,从宏观上分析杭州城市土地利用结构;从微观层面分析城市工业用地效率;提出了优化城市土地利用结构和提高土地利用效率的对策建议。     

MEASURING DISTRIBUTION MODEL RISK

We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy or another f‐divergence or Bregman distance. We use the theory of minimizing convex integral functionals under moment constraints to give formulae for the calculation of distribution model risk and to explicitly determine the worst case distribution from the set of plausible distributions. We also evaluate related risk measures describing divergence preferences.