Conflict,food price shocks,and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households

Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violent incidents, we examine the relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, high conflict provinces are not the most food insecure. Using a simple bivariate regression model of conflict (violent incidents and persons killed or injured) on food security (calorie intake and the real value of food consumed), we find mixed associations. But once we move to a multivariate framework, accounting for household characteristics and key commodity prices, we find robust evidence that in Afghanistan levels of conflict and food security are negatively correlated. We also find that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience muted declines in food security due to staple food price increases relative tohouseholds in provinces with lower levels of conflict, perhaps because the former are more disconnected from markets. Gaining a better understanding of linkages between conflict and food insecurity and knowing their spatial distributions can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs.     

后金融危机时代信用评级机构的改革出路

美国次贷危机再次暴露信用评级机构的法律监管困境,即现行信用评级机构发行人付费收入模式存在根深蒂固的利益冲突问题。信用评级机构以声誉机制辩解,但存在重大理论缺陷和失败的经验事实证据。现行评级机构法律监管体制没能从根本上解决收入模式利益冲突的矛盾。信用评级机构未来的改革出路亟需解决利益冲突之困,可能的方案包括设立公共评级机构、恢复订购人付费模式、评级机构承担法律责任、政府付费购买评级服务等。     

Information flows within financial conglomerates: Evidence from the banks–mutual funds relation

We study how information flows within financial conglomerates by analyzing the relations between mutual funds and banks that belong to the same financial group. We investigate the effect that the lending behavior of affiliated banks has on the portfolio choice of the mutual funds that are part of the same group. We show that funds (fund families) increase their stakes in the firms that borrow from their affiliated banks in the period following the deal by far greater amounts than other unaffiliated funds (fund families). We provide evidence that this strategy is information-driven. The performance of the positions of affiliated funds in the stocks of borrowing firms exceeds that of their other positions in nonborrowing stocks located in the same industry as well as that of other stocks having similar characteristics by up to 1.6% per month. Funds increase (decrease) their stock holdings in those borrowing stocks that subsequently provide positive (negative) abnormal returns, suggesting that they exploit privileged inside information not available to other market participants. This behavior is prevalent largely in funds located in close geographic proximity to their lending banks. Furthermore, it is exhibited mostly by young, small, and poorly performing fund families. Our evidence points to information flows within conglomerates through informal channels such as personal acquaintances.     

内外均衡冲突下的人民币汇率政策选择:基于斯旺模型的研究

本文以斯旺模型为理论基础,研究了当前中国经济内外均衡,中突,并对内外均衡冲突下的汇率政策和货币政策之间的冲突进行了深入分析。根据斯旺模型,这两种冲突的解决要求当前实行紧缩国内支出政策和人民币升值政策的配合。因此,汇率政策的选择就变得至关重要。当然要解决当前经济内外均衡冲突,还需要其他政策的配合。     

声誉机制与证券分析师的利益冲突行为研究

理论界关于声誉机制对证券分析师利益冲突行为的影响存在两种截然不同的观点,本文通过构建证券分析师不同情况下的收益矩阵,求解其最大化的期望收益,得出了声誉机制会引发证券分析师的利益冲突行为,而且证券分析师是否选择跟风主要取决于不同情况下的收益的结论.本文认为,可通过建立声誉回报机制来影响证券分析师的收益,促使证券分析师发布独立且公正的投资建议,以消除证券分析师的利益冲突行为.     

The evaluation of Istanbul airspace design from the perspective of complexity and safety

The approach, descent, and climb phases of flights in terminal maneuvering areas (TMAs) are some of the critical parts of a flight in which more than half of accidents happen. For an ANSP (Air Navigation Service Provider), to fulfill the responsibility with a high-quality service degree while maintaining safety, these difficult areas should be designed carefully and equipped with the most efficient procedures. Point merge system (PMS), which is defined as a systemized method for sequencing arrival flows, is launched in Istanbul's new TMA (LTFM TMA) being designed by DHMI (Devlet Hava Meydanları Isletmesi) to improve safety and efficiency. In this paper, the airspace complexity is based on adjusted density and structural index, and safety indicators. To investigate the effects of the radical changes made in re-organized LTFM TMA on the safety issue in comparison with the previous terminal maneuvering area, LTBA TMA, six months' data consisting of 75215 arrival and departure flights are used. Results reflect that the LTFM TMA, one of the world's busiest terminal airspaces, has statistically significantly lower scores in terms of conflict numbers per aircraft, complexity metrics, adjusted density, the hour of interactions, and flight hours than LTBA TMA. Lastly, there exists no longer a significant relationship between conflict types and complexity after launching the new design and structure.     

Testing the conflict-performance assumption in business-to-business relationships

There is little empirical research published testing the interdependency between conflict in business-to-business relationships and commercial performance. The “conflict-performance assumption”—all other factors being equal, relationships where conflict is low will outperform relationships where conflict levels are higher—remains central in the marketing channels' literature despite insufficient and contradictory empirical evidence. There are several explanations for the lack of a clear relationship between conflict and performance. Rosenbloom [J. Mark. 37 (1973) 26] theorises that the relationship between conflict and channel performance follows an inverted U-shaped curve, where conflict is most productive at moderate levels and least productive at very low or high levels. Others have argued for a simpler, linear relationship between conflict and performance, usually negative in nature. Various theories about the conflict-performance relationship are empirically tested in a large marketing channel, using a number of dyadic and monadic measures of conflict (latent, perceived, and affective) and two objective measures of performance (effectiveness and efficiency). A linear model (performance declining as conflict increases) is adequate to explain the relationship between dyadic measures of both perceived and affective conflict and channel effectiveness. A threshold model is found to be superior to a linear model in explaining the relationship between dyadic measures of perceived and affective conflict and efficiency. Conflict increases slowly as efficiency falls until a threshold is reached when conflict escalates. Practical implications include that companies need to consider whether performance criteria affecting efficiency are as important to their business partners as those affecting effectiveness. If they are not, then business partners should be rewarded for meeting any such criteria that are more important to the one side of a relationship dyad than to the other.     

我国网络广告法律问题研究现状

互联网的飞速发展带来了网络广告的异军突起,但其现状却不容乐观,网络广告面临诸多法律问题亟待解决。本文针对网络广告面临的法律问题现状,从网络广告性质及主体的界定、审查机制的缺失、网络违法广告、网络广告侵权问题以及网络广告的法律适用与管辖权问题等五个方面进行了归纳与梳理,并结合中国目前的研究现状展开了评价,以期对我国未来网络广告法律问题的理论构建以及实践活动提供更为重要的借鉴意义。     

论国际投资争端解决的管辖权冲突及应对——以CAFTA投资争端解决机制为视角

文章从CAFTA投资争端解决机制入手,对国际投资争端管辖权冲突的成因进行了分析,认为:当事方在不同条约下享有的投资权益的竞合是管辖权冲突的根本原因;在不同条约下,同一措施导致的当事方投资利益的减损所产生的多重诉由是管辖权冲突的直接原因;当事方根据其享有的争端解决请求权所进行的多重选择是管辖权冲突的关键原因。文章认为,争端解决方式的选择应考虑投资争端解决机制的近期发展及国际投资环境的变化,需经过识别和利益衡量两个主要阶段,并应基于尊重主权,利益最优化,以及立足区域一体化、兼顾全球化、稳固双边投资促进和保护等原则进行利益衡量,以确定具体的方式。     

How venture capitalists respond to unmet expectations: The role of social environment

In this paper, we seek to explain venture capitalists' reactions to disappointments caused by entrepreneurs. Our basic assumption is that venture capitalists' social environment, defined as exposure to venture capital and business communities, will influence their responses to problematic situations. The results of our study suggest that venture capitalists with strong ties to their colleagues and with managerial experience are more inclined to use active and constructive approaches than venture capitalists with a lesser exposure to the venture capital and business communities.