我国实行金融混业经营的分析

本文从国内金融业在此问题上的实践探索出发,借鉴外国的成熟经验,分析了引发金融混业经营潮流的宏观和微观两个方面的诱因。在此基础上从实现金融机构控制风险、稳健发展和拓宽利润来源、提高竞争实力等方面论证了我国目前探索金融混业经营的现实意义。并就管理模式、组织结构调整、加强内部风险控制能力等重点、难点问题进行了分析。     

Three Corrected Score Tests for Generalized Linear Models with Dispersion Covariates

We develop three corrected score tests for generalized linear models with dispersion covariates, thus generalizing the results of Cordeiro , Ferrari and Paula (1993) and Cribari-Neto and Ferrari (1995) . We present, in matrix notation, general formulae for the coefficients which define the corrected statistics. The formulae only require simple operations on matrices and can be used to obtain analytically closed-form corrections for score test statistics in a variety of special generalized linear models with dispersion covariates. They also have advantages for numerical purposes since our formulae are readily computable using a language supporting numerical linear algebra. Two examples, namely, iid sampling without covariates on the mean or dispersion parameter oand one-way classification models, are given. We also present some simulations where the three corrected tests perform better than the usual score test, the likelihood ratio test and its Bartlett corrected version. Finally, we present a numerical example for a data set discussed by Simonoff and Tsai (1994) .     

试论波特劳勒“综合激励模型”的应用

知识型员工是知识经济时代出现的新型工作群体熏他们是知识资本的掌握者,是企业最为宝贵的资源熏文章通过对波特劳勒综合激励模型理论的分析认为:对知识型员工的激励熏应建立在满足其较高层次需要的基础上熏在激励策略方面熏主要采取报酬激励、精神激励和工作激励等方式熏并且应根据知识型员工不同的特点,选择不同的激励方式组合,才能充分发挥知识型员工的工作积极性。     

The interactions between natural and physical capitals in the tourist lifecycle model

This paper presents a model of the interactions between natural resources and physical capital in the evolution of a tourist destination. The projected trajectory of the number of tourists approaches the classical lifecycle pattern. The post-stagnation phase is analyzed within the model, obtaining different patterns which depend on the impacts of physical capital on both demand and environmental degradation. The magnitudes of these impacts are determined by the type of tourism. An empirical application to the case of the tourist industry in the Canary Islands (Spain) is presented, showing that the model can represent the general characteristics of the post-stagnation phase of a tourist destination.     

Regulation of Mobile Telephony across the European Union: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper I analyze the impact of regulatory policy on prices and demand for mobile telecommunications services across the European Union. I estimate a reduced form model of the mobile industry using panel data for the EU countries from 1998 to 2002. Among others, I find the following effects: liberalization of fixed telephone lines has a negative impact on prices and a positive impact on the demand for mobile services, and the introduction of mobile number portability has a negative impact on prices.*I am grateful to Toker Doganoglu, Gerd Hansen, Eric Kodjo Ralph, Guido Friebel, participants at the 30th EARIE Conference 2003, the 2nd International Industrial Organization Conference 2004 and the 19th Annual Congress of the EEA 2004, and anonymous referees for valuable comments. I would like to acknowledge the generous financial support from the Volkswagen Stiftung and the Munich Graduate School of Economics which made this research possible. All errors are mine.1 Source: European Commission (1994).     

湖南省区域开发的空间模式研究

根据湖南省区域开发条件和现状,运用点轴理论,分析湖南省国土综合开发的地域结构及其演化趋势,进而提出全省中长期开发的空间模式,为宏观决策提供依据。即在湘江中下游和洞庭湖区实施网络式开发与点轴式开发相结合的开发模式,在湘中和湘南地区实施点轴开发模式,在湘西地区实施据点式开发模式。     

Institutional quality and the effectiveness of aid for trade

Trade policy barriers and high transaction costs hinder developing countries from taking the full advantages of the global trading system. In order to help developing countries overcome the problem, the World Trade Organization (WTO) launched the Aid for Trade (AFT) initiatives in its Ministerial Conference held in Hong Kong in 2005. We examine the effects of AFT inflows on bilateral trade costs facing 133 developing countries while accounting for differences in their location on the contours of various measures of institutional quality. Our results from the estimation of a mixed effects (random-intercept and random-coefficient) model indicate that institutional quality significantly affects the extent to which AFT reduces bilateral trade costs. An important policy implication of our findings is that an economically robust and sustainable reduction in bilateral trade costs facing developing countries requires the presence of both promulgated and effectively functioning institutions such as regulatory power and the rule of law.     

不同质量水平下的总质量成本研究

质量成本(COQ,Cost of Quality)是衡量提高质量活动的效果和效率的标准.COQ模型在质量成本研究中起着重要的作用.基于"6σ管理"中"持续改进"的思想和方法,用"kσ"作为质量水平(QL,Quality Level)的度量,笔者得到了不同质量水平下的动态总COQ模型.进而,还提供了不同质量水平下的总质量成本曲线.     

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

我国城市商业银行的经营模式选择分析

自城市商业银行成立之初，其经营活动就被限制在所在城市。但是近几年来，单一城市制经营模式的负面效应日益显现，并成为城市商业银行进一步发展的障碍。随着地区经济一体化和金融一体化的发展，资金的跨地区流动日益频繁，客户对银行服务和产品的要求也日益多元化，尤其是需要商业银行能够跨区域为其提供金融服务。伴随着城市商业银行改革的向前推进，城市商业银行要求联合、跨区域发展的愿望越来越强烈。实行新的经营模式才能提高城市商业银行的整体发展水平和市场竞争能力。