Earning functions in Portugal 1982–1994: Evidence from quantile regressions

This paper uses quantile regressions to describe the conditional wage distribution in Portugal and its evolution over the 1980s as well as the implications for increased wage inequality. We find that, although returns to schooling are positive at all quantiles, education is relatively more valued for highly paid jobs. Consequently, schooling has a positive impact on wage inequality. Moreover, this tendency has sharpened over the period. We also find that most of the estimated change in wage inequality was due to changes in the distribution of the worker's attributes, rather than to increased inequality within a particular type of worker. this version: January 2000     

The Lee-Carter quantile mortality model

The Lee-Carter (LC) stochastic mortality model has been widely used for making future projections of mortality rates. In the framework of the LC model, the response function is non-linear in parameters. Here, we adapt this LC framework to compute conditional quantiles. The LC quantile model can be defined as quantile non-linear regression conditioned to age and the calendar year. Two strategies for estimating coefficients based on interior-point methods are described. We show that the LC quantile model provides additional information to that furnished by the traditional LC conditional mean. An application to Spanish mortality data is reported.     

An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market

This article develops a model-based method to detect booms and busts in the Euro area housing market. A model is constructed and tested, whereby the user cost rate, a demographic variable, unemployment rate, disposable income, debt-to-income ratio and housing stock are fundamental variables significantly explaining house price (HP) developments. Booms/busts are identified as episodes when the HP index exceeds the levels implied by those economic fundamentals. Furthermore, a cross-check with boom/bust episodes based on other methods is carried out to substantiate the results, while the ability of the model in predicting booms/busts in real time is also tested.     

Heterogeneity and Spatial Dependence of Regional Growth in the EU: A Recursive Partitioning Approach

We use model‐based recursive partitioning to assess heterogeneity of growth and convergence processes based on economic growth regressions for 255 European Union NUTS2 regions from 1995 to 2005. Spatial dependencies are taken into account by augmenting the model‐based regression tree with a spatial lag. The starting point of the analysis is a human‐capital‐augmented Solow‐type growth equation similar in spirit to Mankiw et al. (1992, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407–437). Initial GDP and the share of highly educated in the working age population are found to be important for explaining economic growth, whereas the investment share in physical capital is only significant for coastal regions in the PIIGS countries. For all considered spatial weight matrices recursive partitioning leads to a regression tree with four terminal nodes with partitioning according to (i) capital regions, (ii) non‐capital regions in or outside the so‐called PIIGS countries and (iii) inside the respective PIIGS regions furthermore between coastal and non‐coastal regions. The choice of the spatial weight matrix clearly influences the spatial lag parameter while the estimated slope parameters are very robust to it. This indicates that accounting for heterogeneity is an important aspect of modeling regional economic growth and convergence.     

Testing for Spatial Effects in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

Abstract

The paper focuses on the case of a panel data set, without unobserved individual effects, treated by means of an SUR specification. The problem raised is to test for the presence of spatial effects in these multivariate systems. Various useful tests are developed based on the principle of the Lagrange Multiplier in a maximum-likelihood framework. Also, we address the question of the time stability of the sequence of spatial dependence coefficients, as a maintained hypothesis that is not necessarily true in applied work. The second part of the paper presents the results of a Monte Carlo experiment.

Essais sur les effets spatiaux dans des régressions apparemment sans rapport

Resume Cette communication se concentre sur le cas de l'ensemble de données de panel, sans effets individuels non observés, traitées au moyen d'une spécification SUR. Le problème soulevé concerne l'examen de la présence d'effets spatiaux dans ces systèmes à multi-variables. On développe plusieurs essais utiles, basés sur le principe du multiplicateur d'Euler-Lagrange dans un cadre de probabilité maximale. En outre, nous nous penchons sur la question de la stabilité en fonction du temps des coefficients de dépendance spatiale, en tant qu'hypothèse maintenue qui n'est pas nécessairement vraie dans les applications pratiques. La deuxième partie de la communication présente les résultats d'une expérience Monte Carlo.

Ensayando los efectos espaciales en ecuaciones aparentemente no relacionadas

Extracto El trabajo se centra en el caso de un conjunto de datos de panel, donde no existen efectos individuales inobservados, tratado por medio de una especificación SUR. El problema que se plantea es contrastar la existencia de efectos espaciales en ese tipo de sistemas multivariados. Se desarrollan varios contrastes basados en el principio del Multiplicador de Lagrange en un contexto de máxima verosimilitud. Igualmente tratamos la cuestioen de la estabilidad temporal en la secuencia de coeficientes de dependencia espacial, como una hipótesis mantenida que no es necesariamente cierta en trabajos de tipo aplicados. La parte final del arti′culo presenta los resultados de un experimento de Monte Carlo.

     

Product innovation and employment growth at the firm level: a quantile regression approach to inter-industry differences

This article demonstrates that the relationship between product innovativeness and employment growth at the firm level depends on (i) market responses to innovations with different degrees of novelty, (ii) the location of firms on the growth distribution and (iii) industry conditions. As a result, research that uses standard regression techniques such as OLS and does not account for innovation characteristics and industry differences fail to properly describe this relationship     

The effects of lower mobile termination rates in South Africa

The effects of a 90% reduction in mobile termination rates (MTRs) are evaluated over the period between 2009 and 2017 in South Africa. Prepaid prices and quality-adjusted postpaid prices declined by over 40%. However, only approximately 30% of the decline in prepaid prices and 60% of the reduction in quality-adjusted postpaid prices can be explained by lower MTR costs. On-net and off-net prepaid prices converged as MTR costs dropped. Regulators concerned about high retail prices and differences between on-net and off-net prices should reduce MTRs.     

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEXES AND THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts (SNA). Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input components of a commercial property are required in the Production Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the SNA. The paper reviews existing methods for constructing an overall Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and concludes that most methods are biased (due to their neglect of depreciation) and more importantly, not able to provide separate land and structure subindexes. A class of hedonic regression models that is not subject to these problems is discussed.     

Training match and mismatch as a driver of key employee behaviours

Training is widely believed to have the potential to improve key workplace outcomes such as the in‐role behaviours and organisational citizenship of employees. However, this article argues that match of actual training provision to requirements leads to the greatest possible improvement in key behaviours, an assertion that lacks prior validation. Undertraining relative to requirements would typically be associated with lower behavioural gain, or even negative behaviours. Overtraining may have both positive and negative implications; however, this article argues that on aggregate excess training will be associated with worse outcomes compared with match. An analysis of 699 matched employee–manager dyads supports the assertion that match is associated with the best relative levels of key workplace behaviours, and associates either undertraining or overtraining with degradation in outcomes. This research highlights the importance of training needs analysis and encourages active management of trained workers to match work to skills.