Mexican Peso Futures and Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract

The reintroduction of Mexican peso futures contracts in April 1995 resulted from a refocus of governmental policy to the use of market-based mechanisms to stabilize the exchange rate. Interest in the Mexican peso future contracts has been high as investors look to manage their exposure from transactions and investments denominated in pesos. This study utilizes a VAR framework to analyze the relationship between the volatility in the Mexican peso spot market and futures contracts trading activity. Shocks to the exchange rate volatility lead to increased hedg-ing-type activity. Furthermore, an increase in futures contracts trading activity (reflecting additional speculation-type activity) results in a short-run increase in volatility. A Granger Causality test also indicates a statistically significant link between spot price volatility and futures trading activity in the Mexican peso exchange market.

RESUMEN

La reintroducción de los contratos futuros del peso mexicano en abril de 1995, resultó del nuevo enfoque de la política gubernamental de usar los mecanismos de mercado para estabilizar la tasa cambiaria. Ha habido mucho interés en los contratos futuros del peso mexicano, ya que los inversores buscan administrar su exposición a las transacciones e inversiones denominadas en pesos. Este estudio utiliza el marco del VAR para analizar la relación existente entre la volatilidad del peso mexicano en el mercado spot y la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros. Los choques sufridos por la volatilidad de la tasa cambiaria resultan en un aumento de las actividades del tipo hedging. Además, un aumento en la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros (que refleja otras actividades de naturaleza especulativa) provoca, a corto plazo, un aumento en la volatilidad. Una prueba Granger Causality también indica un vínculo estadísticamente significativo entre la volatilidad del precio spot y la actividad de negociación del mercado futuro en el mercado cambiario del peso mexicano.

RESUMO

A reintrodução dos contratos futuros em peso mexicano, em abril de 1995, foi o resultado de uma revisão da política governamental, em relação ao uso dos mecanismos baseados no mercado para estabilizar a taxa de câmbio. Os juros dos contratos futuros, em peso mexicano, foram altos, devido ao cuidado dos investidores em administrar o risco das transaç[otilde]es e dos investimentos efetuados em pesos. Este estudo utiliza a estrutura VAR, para analisar o relacionamento entre a volatilidade do mercado local, em peso mexicano, e a atividade comercial de contratos futuros. Choques aplicados à volatilidade da taxa de câmbio contribuíram para o aumento das atividades típicas de hedging. Além disso, um crescimento da atividade comercial de contratos futuros (refletindo uma atividade basicamente especulativa) ocasiona um rápido aumento na volatilidade. O teste Granger Causality indica, também, um vínculo estatístico significativo entre a volatilidade do preço local e a atividade comercial de futuros no mercado cambial do peso mexicano.     

美国高等教育规划及其参考价值

立法拨款是美国联邦政府早期调控高等教育发展的行之有效的方法。随着经济全球化和高等教育的国际化,联邦政府自20世纪90年代以来开始对全国高等教育制定统一的宏观规划,而国际化、多样化、跨学科等一直都是其高等教育发展的重要战略。但美国高等教育的全面规划是由州政府来执行的。美国政府的高等教育发展规划经验对现阶段我国中央政府制定宏观的教育规划、地方政府积极参与教育规划、确立全国规划重点等具有重要参考价值。     

拉美石油能源国有化背景下的中国拉美石油能源战略

近年来,拉美一些主要产油国的石油能源国有化对中国拉美石油能源战略产生了强烈的冲击,因此,在中国拉美石油能源战略实施中应做到:注重经济关系改善,巩固和扩大市场;淡化政治,突出合作的企业行为;采取多种战略组合开发模式,提高规避和抗击各类风险的能力。     

Effects of Free Trade on Women and Immigrants: CAFTA and the Rural Dominican Republic

We construct a disaggregated rural economywide model with a focus on gender and immigration as well as on the allocation of time to wage work, household production activities, and housework (reproduction). We use this model to simulate the impacts of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) on rural incomes and welfare in the Dominican Republic. We find that elimination of agricultural import tariffs hurts both agricultural and non-agricultural households, via adverse factor-market effects, but impacts vary substantially by workers’ gender and country of origin. Females and Haitian immigrants tend to fare better than Dominican males, and there are ramifications for both market and non-market activities.     

Radical Political Regimes in the Americas and MNC Responses

Abstract

This paper introduces a dynamic conceptual model to describe US multinational corporations' responses to radical political regime changes in contemporary Latin America. The model describes four stages in the MNC response process: (1) the nature of the radical revolution in the host nation; (2) the new economic paradigm created by the revolutionary government; (3) the adjustments and readjustments made by both parties (the state and MNC) within the newly defined rules; and (4) the end result or outcome of the re-positioning process. Moderating the impact of the creation of the new economic paradigm are the host nation's national history, the host nation's domestic actors, US hegemonic power, international actors and economic development models. Within this mix, both state and MNC power influence what each other wants and can get from the other. This leads to a “negotiated” outcome from whence the response from the MNC is made. The revolutionary regimes in Chile (1970-1973) and Nicaragua (1979-1990) are examined within the context of the proposed conceptual model.