CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.     

A Portfolio's Country Exposure Management: The Case of Latin American Mutual Funds

This study empirically examines the forecasting ability and performance of Latin American fund managers by evaluating changes in portfolio country exposure. It employs a methodology based on attribution returns. An attribution return is defined as the difference between the actual monthly fund return and the return that would have been generated by the previous month portfolio's country exposure. The study finds three major results. In the aggregate, Latin American fund managers demonstrate forecasting ability as evidenced by a positive and statistically significant attribution return. The fund managers outperform a regional benchmark when measured with Jensen's alpha, and the attribution return is positively correlated with alpha. Attribution returns are mostly negative during periods of financial instability in the region.     

Governance, Democracy and Poverty Reduction: Lessons Drawn from Household Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

Public statistics face quite a challenge when it comes to measuring new dimensions of development (institutions, governance, and social and political participation). To take up this challenge, modules on Governance, Democracy and Multiple Dimensions of Poverty have been appended to household surveys by National Statistics Institutes in twelve African and Latin American developing countries. This paper presents the issues addressed and the methodological lessons learnt along with a selection of findings to illustrate this innovative approach and demonstrate its analytic potential. We investigate, for instance, the population's support for democratic principles, the respect for civil and political rights and the trust in the political class; the ‘need for the State’, particularly of the poorest; the extent of petty corruption; the reliability of expert surveys on governance; the perception of decentralization policies at local level; the level and vitality of social and political participation, etc. The conclusive appraisal made opens up prospects for the national statistical information systems in the developing countries. The measurement and tracking of this new set of objective and subjective public policy monitoring indicators would benefit from being made systematic.     

From Experience: The Corporate Black Hole

There is a lot of creative potential lying dormant in corporations because too many managers fail to see innovation as a process to be deliberately managed. C. Joshua Abend sees innovation connected to virtually everything that happens—or doesn't happen—in an organization. He offers in this article ideas that managers can use to remove the impediments to increased innovation and productivity.     

Ronald Finlay,Rolf G. Henriksson,Hkan Lindgren & Mats Lundahl (eds), Eli Heckscher,International Trade and Economic History

Abstract

The great world economic and globalisation boom of the pre-First World War era was accompanied by great inequality in the distribution of income and wealth particularly during industrialisation, with the new world European settler economies being no exception. Canadian wealth inequality over the period 1870–1930 was also substantial and is examined using probated estates from the Eastern Judicial District of the province of Manitoba and Wentworth County, Ontario. However, wealth inequality is found to be less pronounced in frontier Manitoba relative to Ontario with higher and more dispersed rates of land ownership in the West as well as lower wealth levels and greater farm employment, as the key factors in this difference. This suggests that the farm economy of pre-First World War Canada was associated with greater equality of wealth. One of the inevitable effects of Canadian industrialisation and economic development was a rise in wealth inequality but the process of western settlement and associated free grants helped mitigate it. By extension, global economic inequality might also have been mitigated during this period by the presence of agricultural frontiers with subsidised land grants.     

A case study of land reform and coastal land transformation in southern Sonora, Mexico

This paper examines the coastal ejido (collectives of peasant landholders) sector's response to the 1992 amendment to Article 27 of Mexico's Constitution, which for the first time legalized the sale and rental of ejido lands. Our analysis is based on a case study of southern Sonora, Mexico. The results indicate a shift in land tenure from the ejido to the private sector and a corresponding conversion of coastal lands to shrimp aquaculture ponds. Our analysis suggests these land-tenure and land-use changes, and the implications of these changes for the coastal ejido sector, vary depending on the historical, geographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ejido communities.     

Testing the limits of privatization: Argentine railroads

Just how far can privatization be pushed, and with what consequences? Based on a study of Argentine railroads, this paper concludes that even large, unprofitable firms in developing countries faced with market failures can be privatized, but the gains from doing so depend on how badly the state enterprise was performing to begin with, and the potential for introducing competition in the market and for the market. The broader lesson is that when both market failures and government failures are present, a public-private solution is preferable to a purely private or a purely public solution. Privatization is not a panacea but potentially a palliative, when it comes to reducing subsidies or coping with regulatory failures.