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The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the ‘Walters critique’ effect, the country’s adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in the economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate. 相似文献
53.
Jiyeon RyuAuthor Vitae Soon Cheon ByeonAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(6):1049-1059
Technology has been the driving force of development for knowledge-based economies. As competition in technology innovation among nations becomes more intense, there is a growing need for improved judgment, evaluation and prediction of scientific technology capacity in order to enhance national competitiveness. Until now, a country's technology level has been evaluated on a relative basis by comparing it with that of the country with the world's best technology. However, this kind of static methodology makes the interpretation of results unclear and makes time series analysis difficult. One of the most important limitations of this methodology is that it cannot be used to establish a strategy to improve the technology level. This paper examines the methodological problems of technology level evaluation and develops a dynamic methodology by applying the technology growth curve model. We also analyze the real technology level by using a new model application and review the relevance of this method. Finally, we discuss how to use the results in order to create a dynamic technology strategy. 相似文献
54.
Jeong Ho KwakAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(4):713-728
The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market. 相似文献
55.
Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Shun-Chung LeeAuthor Vitae Li-Hsing Shih Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(7):1242-1253
This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research. 相似文献
56.
文章基于我国1997-2009年省级面板数据,采用数据本身隐含信息进行内分组的面板平滑转移模型来检验财政支出与经济增长之间的非线性效应,并进一步拓展了Armey曲线推论。研究发现,我国省级政府财政一般预算支出规模和财政支出结构均与经济增长之间存在Armey曲线所描绘的非线性效应,其中财政一般预算支出最优规模为9.32%,财政支出最优结构为1.643,并且财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构都在最优值两侧对经济增长的影响具有不对称性,相比而言,财政一般预算支出规模的转换速度似乎更快。这意味着现阶段我国财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构不合理,需要政府提高财政支出效率。 相似文献
57.
流通业增加值占GDP比重变化规律研究——基于我国省级面板数据的实证分析及理论解释 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
在经济发展过程中,流通业增加值占GDP比重的变化规律很少受到关注。2001年,Anderson和Betancourt指出流通业增加值占GDP的比重和经济增长的长期关系呈倒U型,并运用跨国面板数据进行了实证分析,但没有给出理论解释。选取我国各省1993-2008年的数据,建立静态面板数据模型,对流通业比重和经济发展水平的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明我国流通业比重存在先升后降的倒U型规律。将流通服务看作流通部门的产出,构建流通部门的CES生产函数,对这一规律进行了理论解释。研究启示是:流通业比重变化存在客观规律,不能因流通业属于传统服务业而忽视甚至试图降低其在GDP中的比重,需要遵循这一规律,为服务业结构优化和升级提供相应的政策支持。 相似文献
针对1980—2008年间中国经济增长与腐败的变动趋势关系,分别采用透明国际的腐败感知指数(CPI)指标和中国腐败案件数两套数据进行实证检验,结果验证中国经济增长和腐败之间存在着库兹涅茨曲线效应。实证分析表明,在改革初期中国腐败水平较低,随着经济增长腐败水平逐渐提高,在达到某个高度以后呈逐渐下降趋势。这说明中国腐败案件的发生受到纪检机关反腐力度、对外开放程度和固定资产投资的影响,应继续坚持改革开放进程,降低腐败水平,促进经济发展。 相似文献
59.
随着金融业的发展,需求研究对银行经营管理的意义变得越来越重要.本文以动态研究社会需求数量变化为基础,引入银行服务的需求周期曲线和银行产品的需求周期曲线.通过分析银行所面对的社会隐性需求和显性需求,说明在显性需求更多地导致同质市场的情况下,隐性需求对银行新产品开发的重要意义.同时,本文从需求周期的阶段性、需求周期曲线簇和银行产品的需求周期曲线三个方面来论述如何有效地开发和利用隐性需求为银行新产品开发服务. 相似文献
60.
基于2005—2014年淮河流域安徽段8个地级市工业环境与经济相关统计数据,通过非参数Kernel函数估计描绘该区域人均GDP和工业污染排放物的动态演进过程,进而构建淮河流域环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型,考察淮河流域生态环境质量变迁与经济增长的关系。研究表明:该区域的经济发展水平整体处于上升阶段,随着时间推移地区之间差距拉大,而人均工业废水排放和人均工业废气排放的核密度估计分布图存在一定的相似性;人均工业废气排放量与人均GDP呈现线性关系,人均工业废水排放量和人均工业固体废弃物排放量与人均GDP之间均表现出正“U”型二次曲线关系,与典型的EKC曲线特征不是完全符合,安徽淮河流域大部分地区仍然处于随经济发展而生态环境不断恶化阶段。 相似文献