Bargaining Outcomes with Double-Offer Arbitration

Increasingly, arbitration is becoming used to resolve bargaining disputes in a variety of settings. Reducing dispute rates is often listed as a main goal in designing arbitration mechanisms. Conventional arbitration and final-offer arbitration are two commonly used procedures, but theoretical examinations of these arbitration procedures show that disputants’ final bargaining positions do not converge and disagreement is likely. This article contains results from a set of experiments designed to compare bargaining outcomes under the two commonly used arbitration procedures with outcomes under an innovative procedure called “double-offer” arbitration (Zeng et al., 1996). This procedure requires that disputants make two final offers at impasse: a primary and a secondary offer. The arbitrator evaluates the pairs of offers using a linear criterion function, and theory suggests the secondary offers converge to the median of the arbitrator’s preferred settlement distribution. Because the procedure’s rules are that convergence of offers generates a settlement at those offers, this theoretical convergence result implies that arbitration is not needed in the end. Experimental results indicate that dispute rates in double-offer arbitration are, on average, about the same as dispute rates in conventional arbitration. However, other results show reason to favor double-offer arbitration. Specifically, in repeated bargaining, there is concern over whether use of an arbitration procedure becomes addictive and makes bargainers more likely to use the procedure in the future-a “narcotic effect.” The data show that double-offer arbitration is non-addictive, whereas both conventional and final-offer arbitration are.     

第二产业主导产业的选择与实证分析

中国目前仍处于传统工业化中期,今后的任务是推进工业现代化,向发达经济阶段迈进.第二产业主导产业的发展在整个经济发展中处于举足轻重的地位,因此,第二产业主导产业的选择是加速发展第二产业的关键,正确确定目前第二产业中的主导产业,对中国第二产业以及整个国民经济的发展意义重大.本文以第二产业主导产业选择的基准为依据,运用主成份分析法,确定了2000-2050年各阶段第二产业的主导产业.     

国有企业负责人素质能力评价与分析

基于国有企业负责人素质能力的影响因素，根据评价指标体系设计的原则，以国有企业负责人为研究对象，确定了由两个模块、六个要素、十八个指标构成的评价指标体系；采用模糊综合评价方法对河北省国有企业负责人的素质能力进行实证评价分析。结果表明，该评价方法可运用于其他国有企业负责人素质能力的评价研究。     

我国资本市场分形特性研究

任何科学发展,包括社会科学在内,其前沿问题都是非线性问题.但是,由于现行线性模型的简单易行,实际中仍被广泛运用.随着经济行为越来越复杂,只有用动态的非线性模型刻画某些经济现象,才能较好地反映客观现实.近二十年来,作为研究非线性问题科学分支之一的分形理论,也就成了经济学科研究与应用的前沿领域.本文探讨了分形时间序列的基本特点及Hurst指数计算方法,描述了计算时间序列Hurst指数的一般方法,运用R/S分析法分析了我国资本市场的分形特性,通过实例分析,总结了资本市场分形理论的基本内容.     

The Effect of Protest Votes on the Estimates of WTP for Use Values of Recreational Sites

Contingent valuation studies are often characterized by a considerable number of protest responses, which may cause selectivity bias on the final estimates for WTP. Sample selection models can detect and – if necessary – correct selectivity bias. In economic applications where the relevant dependent variable is continuous, sample selection models are generally estimated using Heckman's 2-step method rather than the FIML estimator. Either method has its own drawback: computational complexity for the FIML method, susceptibility to collinearity problems for the 2-step method. Using data on valuation of forest resources for recreational use, we analyse the performance of the two estimators. In this application, given the presence of some collinearity, the FIML is preferred to the 2-step method. A procedure is outlined to deal with selectivity problems in similar settings.     

人力资源管理系统模型研究

本文依据信息技术对人力资源管理的影响,建立了人力资源管理系统模型,并提出人力资源管理思维、方法及原则。     

Health Damage of Air Pollution: An Estimate of a Dose–Response Relationship for the Netherlands

This paper estimates the dose-response relationship between air pollution and the number of work loss days for the Netherlands. The study is based on illness data (work loss days) for the Dutch labour population and average year concentrations of air pollution in 29 districts. The dose-response relationship has been estimated by means of two different techniques: the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the one-way fixed-effects method (OWFEM), which we consider to be more adequate. In general health effects are much smaller when OWFEM is applied than if OLS is used. With OWFEM a significant relationship is found between sulphate aerosol (SO₄), ammonia (NH₃) and the number of work loss days (WLDs). Particulates (TSP), O₃ and SO₂ have no significant effect on the number of WLDs. These results differ from those obtained in studies in the United States, which indicate that particulates (TSP) and other small particles, ozone (O₃) and to a lesser extent SO₄ and SO₂ significantly influence the number of WLDs.     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

基金羊群行为的博弈分析

本文从博弈角度对信息不完全和声誉报酬型羊群行为的生成机理进行了剖析，最后从博弈均衡解出发，给出了弱化羊群行为的对策。     

厦门市绿地生态网络构建及优化策略

科学构建城市绿地生态网络，对区域生态安全、城 市可持续发展及生物多样性保护具有重要意义。基于AHP法 和GIS技术，定量分析厦门市自然生态本底，选取重要生态斑 块和廊道，采用最小费用路径法模拟潜在廊道，综合构建城 市绿地生态网络，并提出绿地生态网络优化策略。结果表明： 1)AHP法可整合区域生态、经济、人文和社会等资源，全面 客观评价现状生态斑块和廊道的重要程度；最小费用路径法可 根据生境分布特征科学模拟连通各斑块之间的潜在廊道；2)厦 门市西北部的生态基底适宜性、生态源地及廊道重要性、斑块 之间有效连通性均高于东北部及中部平原区；岛内斑块面积小 且分散，南北部存在断层现象，应适度增加踏脚石和连通廊 道；3)结合城市生态发展需求，提出构建“一片、一环、三 带、多廊道、多节点”的城市绿地生态网络。研究结果可为厦 门市绿地系统规划提供科学依据。