Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist’s toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.     

高管薪酬差距、现金持有及其市场价值——基于不同产权性质比较

薪酬差距这一话题引起社会各界的广泛关注，国内外学者对此问题已经进行了大量的研究，并取得了丰硕的成果，但目前我国上市公司高管薪酬差距如何影响其现金持有水平及其价值，几乎尚未见探讨。基于此背景，以中国A股2005—2018年非金融类上市公司为研究对象，实证考察了不同产权性质公司高管薪酬差距对其现金持有水平及价值的影响。研究结果表明：国企高管薪酬差距增加了现金持有量，降低了现金持有价值；民企高管薪酬差距降低了现金持有量，但提高了现金持有价值；稳健性检验表明文中论断依然成立；进一步分析可知国企高管薪酬差距更加倾向于增加内部现金流用于现金持有的积累，且同时导致过度投资水平的增加，民企高管薪酬差距降低了内部现金流用于现金持有的积累，对过度投资水平影响不显著。从以上结果可以得出，国企高管薪酬差距对现金持有行为的影响支持了社会比较理论；民企高管薪酬差距对现金持有行为的影响支持了锦标赛理论。     

Financialization,Shareholder Orientation and the Cash Holdings of US Corporations

Growth in the cash holdings of US nonfinancial corporations (NFCs) has received considerable attention in recent years. These cash holdings constitute a primary component of the growth in firm-level financial asset holdings often highlighted in analyses of the ‘financialization’ of NFCs. In this article, I use a panel of US corporations to empirically analyze two links between corporate cash holdings and the literature on financialization. First, I find a small but positive relationship between cash holdings and shareholder value ideology among large corporations. I capture the growing entrenchment of shareholder ideology using average industry-level stock repurchases, to proxy for industry-level norms encouraging managers to target stock price-based indicators of firm performance. Second, I find a positive relationship between a firm's cash holdings and a measure of the differential it earns between interest income and expense. Given that cash is classified with short-term marketable (and, therefore, interest-bearing) securities on firm balance sheets, this result lends empirical support to the hypothesis that traditionally nonfinancial firms are increasingly engaged in borrowing and lending for profit.     

成交量大幅上升 市场利率明显上涨2007年全国银行间同业拆借与债券系统交易情况综述

2007年,全国银行间货币和债券市场整体运行平稳。各市场成交量稳定增长;货币市场利率明显上涨,3个月期限以下的货币市场利率波动较大,3个月（含三个月期限）到1年期的货币市场利率则稳定上扬。     

企业财务风险分析及防范措施

企业的财务活动贯穿于生产经营的整个过程,财务风险是一种信号,通过它能够全面综合反映企业的经营状况,因此要求企业经营者要进行经常性财务分析,树立风险意识,建立有效的风险防范处理机制,加强企业财务风险控制,防范财务危机,建立预警分析指标体系,进行适当的财务风险决策。     

论企业融资资金流动分析

2008年5月22日,财政部、证监会、审计署、银监会、保监会五部门联合发布了《企业内部控制基本规范》,其中,一个重要内容就是"进行风险评估",并"运用相应的控制措施,将风险控制在可承受度之内"。对企业融资资金进行流动分析,就是分析企业从那些途径取得资金,又将这些资金应用到那些方面,从而分析资金来源和资金应用的对应性,考察企业有没有财务风险,有没有经营风险,有没有偿债风险。为了实现这一目标,本文应用实例进行了说明。     

经济作物种植与非农生产活动空间关系探究——以河南省柘城县为例

经济作物种植和非农生产活动均为农户用于获取经济收入的重要途径。通过对河南省柘城县辣椒种植业及非农生产活动的调查分析,发现经济作物种植与非农生产活动空间分布呈现一定的对应关系:以县城为中心,随着距离的增加,二者分别呈现"低—高—低"和"高—低—高"的空间分布特征;以各自所属乡镇行政中心所在地为中心,随着距离的增加,二者分别呈现"低—高—低—高"和"高—低—高—低"的空间分布特征。建立理论模型,并给出了形成以上现象的可能性原因。找出特定农作物与非农生产活动空间分布特征,对鉴别农业专业化生产区域、优化农区空间结构、提高土地产出率具有重要意义。     

煤炭企业现金流管理研究

分析了企业现金流管理的目标和原则,对企业经营活动产生的现金流、投资活动产生的现金流和筹资活动产生的现金流如何管理提出了建议。     

贴现现金流量法在煤炭上市公司价值评估中的应用

介绍了采用贴现现金流量法评价煤炭上市公司资源价值,从而进一步实现对上市公司价值的评价的方法。同时使用该方法对靖远煤电公司的资源价值以及上市公司价值进行了评估。     

投资者法律保护 超额现金与现金股利政策

从宏观和微观角度分析了投资者法律保护、超额现金与现金股利政策的关系。得出了投资者法律保护与现金股利支付率负相关,在分组样本中,投资者法律保护并没有差异;现金比例与现金股利支付率负相关,并且在超额现金样本组与非超额现金样本组中有显著性差异。实证表明我国股利政策支持替代假说。