Extracting a common stochastic trend: Theory with some applications

This paper investigates the statistical properties of estimators of the parameters and unobserved series for state space models with integrated time series. In particular, we derive the full asymptotic results for maximum likelihood estimation using the Kalman filter for a prototypical class of such models—those with a single latent common stochastic trend. Indeed, we establish the consistency and asymptotic mixed normality of the maximum likelihood estimator and show that the conventional method of inference is valid for this class of models. The models we explicitly consider comprise a special–yet useful–class of models that may be employed to extract the common stochastic trend from multiple integrated time series. Such models can be very useful to obtain indices that represent fluctuations of various markets or common latent factors that affect a set of economic and financial variables simultaneously. Moreover, our derivation of the asymptotics of this class makes it clear that the asymptotic Gaussianity and the validity of the conventional inference for the maximum likelihood procedure extends to a larger class of more general state space models involving integrated time series. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this class of models extracting a common stochastic trend from three sets of time series involving short- and long-term interest rates, stock return volatility and trading volume, and Dow Jones stock prices.     

Prediction of <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-records from a general class of distributions under balanced type loss functions

We study the problem of predicting future k-records based on k-record data for a large class of distributions, which includes several well-known distributions such as: Exponential, Weibull (one parameter), Pareto, Burr type XII, among others. With both Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches being investigated here, we pay more attention to Bayesian predictors under balanced type loss functions as introduced by Jafari Jozani et al. (Stat Probab Lett 76:773–780, 2006a). The results are presented under the balanced versions of some well-known loss functions, namely squared error loss, Varian’s linear-exponential loss and absolute error loss or L ₁ loss functions. Some of the previous results in the literatures such as Ahmadi et al. (Commun Stat Theory Methods 34:795–805, 2005), and Raqab et al. (Statistics 41:105–108, 2007) can be achieved as special cases of our results. Partial support from Ordered and Spatial Data Center of Excellence of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad is acknowledged by J. Ahmadi. M. J. Jozani’s research supported partially by a grant of Statistical Research and Training Center. é. Marchand’s research supported by NSERC of Canada. A. Parsian’s research supported by a grant of the Research Council of the University of Tehran.     

Small sample properties of maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments based tests for spatially autocorrelated errors

Many applied researchers have to deal with spatially autocorrelated residuals (SAR). Available tests that identify spatial spillovers as captured by a significant SAR parameter, are either based on maximum likelihood (MLE) or generalized method of moments (GMM) estimates. This paper illustrates the properties of various tests for the null hypothesis of a zero SAR parameter in a comprehensive Monte Carlo study. The main finding is that Wald tests generally perform well regarding both size and power even in small samples. The GMM-based Wald test is correctly sized even for non-normally distributed disturbances and small samples, and it exhibits a similar power as its MLE-based counterpart. Hence, for the applied researcher the GMM Wald test can be recommended, because it is easy to implement.     

Rao’s quadratic entropy and maximum diversification indexation

This paper proposes a new formulation of the maximum diversification indexation strategy based on Rao’s Quadratic Entropy. It clarifies the investment problem underlying this diversification strategy, identifies the source of its out-of-sample performance, and suggests new dimensions along which this performance can be improved. We show that these potential improvements are quantitatively important and are robust to portfolio turnover, portfolio risk, estimation window, and covariance matrix estimation.     

Vertical coordination and farm performance: evidence from the catfish sector in Vietnam

Using an original dataset from the Vietnamese catfish sector, I analyze the impact of vertical coordination options, namely, contract farming and vertical integration, on farm performance, which is measured in terms of yields and revenue per hectare. The effects of vertical coordination are estimated using a maximum simulated likelihood estimator and a two‐stage least square regression with instrumental variables to account for endogenous farm and household characteristics and selection on unobservable characteristics. The results show that vertically integrated farms have substantially higher yields and revenue per hectare than nonintegrated farms. The levels of gains that can be attributed to integration are large and consistent under different estimation procedures, and there is no difference between nonintegrated and contract farms in terms of farm performance.     

Minimizing mean absolute deviation of completion time about a common due window subject to maximum tardiness for a single machine

This study deals with the problem of scheduling jobs on a single machine to minimize the mean absolute deviation of the job completion time about a large common due window subject to the maximum tardiness constraint. Using the well-known three-field notation, the problem is identified as MAD/large DueWindow/T_max. The common due window is set to be large enough to allow idle time prior to the beginning of a schedule to investigate the effect of the T_max constraint. Penalties arise if a job is completed outside the due window. A branch and bound algorithm and a heuristic are proposed. Many properties of the solutions and precedence relationships are identified. Our computational results reveal that the branch and bound algorithm is capable of solving problems of up to 50 jobs and the heuristic algorithm yields approximate solutions that are very close to the exact solution.     

对欧盟茶叶农药残留新标准的思考

欧盟茶叶农药最高残留限量新新标准自２０００年７月１日起生效实施。对此,我国茶业界应引起高度重视,除及时对相关的标准进行补充修订外,还应采取技术措施控制茶树用药。     

基于非对称扩散跳跃过程的利率模型研究

在短期利率的扩散跳跃模型基础上,进一步考虑了模型扩散项方差自相关性、非对称性以及跳跃项的均值回复性等设定,以捕捉短期利率的均值回复、波动率集聚、非零偏态和超额峰度以及非连续性等特征。利用上海银行同业拆放市场（SHIBOR）日交易利率数据得出以下结论。首先,SHIBOR利率市场存在均值回复效应,由跳跃设定引起的混合正态分布能捕捉利率增量的尖峰特征。其次,利率增量方差遵循显著的非对称自相关过程,且正的冲击会产生更大的波动性,导致有偏分布。最后,跳跃是利率均值回复速率的重要组成部分,也是利率的水平值动态,尤其是波动性动态的重要来源。