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121.
对欧盟茶叶农药残留新标准的思考 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
陈石榕 《世界标准化与质量管理》2000,(7):28-29
欧盟茶叶农药最高残留限量新新标准自2000年7月1日起生效实施。对此,我国茶业界应引起高度重视,除及时对相关的标准进行补充修订外,还应采取技术措施控制茶树用药。 相似文献
122.
What determines the volumes of international weapon transfers? And why do countries establish such arms trading relationships in the first place? We propose an innovative statistical strategy that builds on the gravity approach and combines a Heckman model with a network analysis. This allows us, for the first time, to analyze the impact of network structures on both the extensive and the intensive margins of the international arms trade simultaneously. We argue that the structure of the arms transfer network conveys important information for exporting and importing countries. Therefore, past topological properties of the trade network play a central role in its future evolution. Using data on the trade of major conventional weapons between 1955 and 2018, our estimation results and out-of-sample predictions show that network structures have considerable explanatory power with respect to the creation of trade links. They are far less relevant for the explanation of trade volumes, which are mainly determined by demand factors. 相似文献
123.
We explore a new approach to the forecasting of macroeconomic variables based on a dynamic factor state space analysis. Key economic variables are modeled jointly with principal components from a large time series panel of macroeconomic indicators using a multivariate unobserved components time series model. When the key economic variables are observed at a low frequency and the panel of macroeconomic variables is at a high frequency, we can use our approach for both nowcasting and forecasting purposes. Given a dynamic factor model as the data generation process, we provide Monte Carlo evidence of the finite-sample justification of our parsimonious and feasible approach. We also provide empirical evidence for a US macroeconomic dataset. The unbalanced panel contains quarterly and monthly variables. The forecasting accuracy is measured against a set of benchmark models. We conclude that our dynamic factor state space analysis can lead to higher levels of forecasting precision when the panel size and time series dimensions are moderate. 相似文献
124.
125.
We examine the cross-sectional relationship between the expected stock return and both the maximum daily return (MAX) and the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) in the five largest emerging African stock markets over the period from 2001 to 2015. First, we find that there is a robust and significantly negative MAX effect in the pooled African stock markets. Second, though we initially document a negative IVOL effect, it disappears after controlling for MAX. Finally, the negative MAX effect is only significant in the small-SIZE, high-illiquidity and high-skewness portfolios. Our results suggest risk-seeking behaviour among African investors similar to that in other parts of the world. 相似文献
126.
《Food Policy》2014
We propose aggregation indices of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) to quantify their protectionism relative to international standards of stringency. We apply the indices to national Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) regulations on pesticides and veterinary drugs affecting agricultural and food trade and using a science-based criteria embodied in Codex Alimentarius international standards. The approach links two streams of the NTM literature, one concerned with the aggregation of various NTMs into operational indices for econometric and modeling purposes, and the other attempting to evaluate the protectionism of NTMs. The data used in the application come from a large international dataset on veterinary and pesticide MRLs and CODEX MRL standards for a large set of countries. 相似文献
127.
The maximum daily return over the previous month (MAX) of Bali et al. (2011) is a strong and significant predictor of future stock returns in non-U.S. equity markets. Once it is controlled for MAX in the cross-section of average returns, the puzzling negative idiosyncratic volatility-return relation disappears. Consistent with the assumption that MAX is the true effect, for which idiosyncratic volatility is just a proxy, we find that MAX can be traced back to firm fundamentals in the manner of idiosyncratic volatility. The negative MAX-return relation is stronger among firms with high cash flow volatility and weaker among firms with high profitability. 相似文献
128.
The stability of estimates is critical when applying advanced measurement approaches (AMA) such as loss distribution approach (LDA) for operational risk capital modeling. Recent studies have identified issues associated with capital estimates by applying the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for truncated distributions: significant upward mean-bias, considerable uncertainty about the estimates, and non-robustness to both small and large losses. Although alternative estimation approaches have been proposed, there has not been any comprehensive study of how alternative approaches perform compared to the MLE method. This paper is the first comprehensive study on the performance of various potentially promising alternative approaches (including minimum distance approach, quantile distance approach, scaling-based bias correction, upward scaling of lower quantiles, and right-truncated distributions) as compared to MLE with regards to accuracy, precision and robustness. More importantly, based on the properties of each estimator, we propose a right-truncation with probability weighted least squares method, by combining the right-truncated distribution and minimizing a probability weighted distance (i.e., the quadratic upper-tail Anderson–Darling distance), and we find it significantly reduces the bias and volatility of capital estimates and improves the robustness of capital estimates to small losses near the threshold or moving the threshold, demonstrated by both simulation results and real data application. 相似文献
129.
This paper studies the parameter estimation problem for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility models driven by Lévy processes. Estimation is regarded as the principal challenge in applying these models since they were proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B, 2001, 63(2), 167–241]. Most previous work has used a Bayesian paradigm, whereas we treat the problem in the framework of maximum likelihood estimation, applying gradient-based simulation optimization. A hidden Markov model is introduced to formulate the likelihood of observations; sequential Monte Carlo is applied to sample the hidden states from the posterior distribution; smooth perturbation analysis is used to deal with the discontinuities introduced by jumps in estimating the gradient. Numerical experiments indicate that the proposed gradient-based simulated maximum likelihood estimation approach provides an efficient alternative to current estimation methods. 相似文献
130.
Jangho Yang 《Journal of economic surveys》2018,32(3):940-960
Economics has seen a recent rise in interest in information theory as an alternative framework to the conventional notion of equilibrium as a fixed state, such as Walrasian market‐clearing general equilibrium. The information theoretic approach is predicated on the notion of statistical equilibrium (SE) that takes a distribution over all possible states as an equilibrium, and therefore predicts the endogenous fluctuations of the system along with its central tendency simultaneously. For this reason, SE approaches can explain the observed data without relying on arbitrary assumptions about random noise and provide useful insights for many interesting economic problems that conventional methods have not been able to satisfactorily deal with. In this paper, we review the key elements of information theory focusing on the notions and applications of entropy and SE in economics, particularly paying attention to how entropy concepts open up a new frontline of economic research. 相似文献