基于预算约束的商品房价格形成机制研究

我国商品房市场上存在一定程度的预算约束。本文通过类比的方法,参考经典预算约束方程,得出了商品房交易市场的预算约束方程,并在此基础上通过理论分析和实证分析得出了商品房价格形成机制。笔者认为,流动性、城市化、人均可支配收入、交易量、持有成本为商品房价格的主要影响因素。从预算约束角度出发对商品房价格的形成机制进行研究,对政府的住房需求治理具有一定的参考意义。     

The cost-effectiveness and budget impact of stepwise addition of bolus insulin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: evaluation of the FullSTEP trial

Background and aims:

Intensification of basal insulin-only therapy in type 2 diabetes is often achieved through addition of bolus insulin 3-times daily. The FullSTEP trial demonstrated that stepwise addition (SWA) of bolus insulin aspart was non-inferior to full basal-bolus (FBB) therapy and reduced the rate of hypoglycemia. Here the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of SWA is evaluated.

Methods:

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact models were developed to assess the cost and quality-of-life (QoL) implications of intensification using SWA compared with FBB in the US setting. At assessment, SWA patients added one bolus dose to their current regimen if the HbA1c target was not met. SWA patients reaching three bolus doses used FBB event rates. Outcomes were evaluated at trial end and projected annually up to 5 years. Models captured hypoglycemic events, the proportion meeting HbA1c target, and self-measured blood glucose. Event rates and QoL utilities were taken from trial data and published literature. Costs were evaluated from a healthcare-payer perspective, reported in 2013 USD, and discounted (like clinical outcomes) at 3.5% annually. This analysis applies to patients with HbA1c 7.0–9.0% and body mass index <40?kg/m².

Results:

SWA was associated with improved QoL and reduced costs compared with FBB. Improvement in QoL and cost reduction were driven by lower rates of hypoglycemia. Sensitivity analyses showed that outcomes were most influenced by the cost of bolus insulin and QoL impact of symptomatic hypoglycemia. Budget impact analysis estimated that, by moving from FBB to SWA, a health plan with 77,000 patients with type 2 diabetes, of whom 7.8% annually intensified to basal-bolus therapy, would save USD 1304 per intensifying patient over the trial period.

Conclusions:

SWA of bolus insulin should be considered a beneficial and cost-saving alternative to FBB therapy for the intensification of treatment in type 2 diabetes.     

A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model

This paper describes the FMM-MTFF model, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed to support the implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) in emerging market and developing economies. The model exhibits the following features. First, fiscal policy is defined in terms of multi-year fiscal plans, instead of restricting attention to univariate, single-period fiscal shocks. Second, the model temporarily deactivates the fiscal rule to avoid forcing fiscal policy to be mechanically countercyclical and sustainable. Third, the model is calibrated to match a three-sector, stylized version of a country’s input-output table, and finally, the model uses a chain-weighted procedure to measure GDP, a method consistent with what national account compilers do. The model is calibrated to Colombian and Peruvian data to illustrate the use of the model as a tool to quantify the scale of the fiscal challenges, to provide consistent medium-term macro fiscal projections and to assess the quantitative implications of past reforms and alternative fiscal policy plans on the economies, i.e., the typical questions of interest to an MTFF.     

A note on budget balance under interim participation constraints: the case of independent types

We provide a simple proof of the equivalence between ex ante and ex post budget balance constraints in Bayesian mechanism design with independent types when participation decisions are made at the interim stage. The result is given an interpretation in terms of efficient allocation of risk.     

全球经常项目失衡问题探析

近些年,全球经常项目失衡问题成为经济研究者、国际机构和各国中央银行经济学家以及商务经济研究报告竞相研究的热点问题。本文构建了经常项目影响因素的理论模型,在此基础上利用52个国家或地区1980~2004年经济数据对理论模型所关注的经济变量对经常项目的影响进行了实证研究,并且对解决当前全球经常项目失衡问题提出了相关建议。     

深化政府预算收支分类改革的辨正思考

本文认为,2007年实施的政府收支分类改革,是我国公共预算管理制度创新的重要战略举措。在深化这一改革的进程中,需要处理好以下问题:政府收支分类与现行《预算法》收支范围界定的关系,科目级次归属与部门重要性的关系,新政府收支分类体系与国际经验的关系,并妥善防止“制度陷阱“引致的违规行为。     

On the continuous equilibria of affiliated-value,all-pay auctions with private budget constraints

We consider all-pay auctions in the presence of interdependent, affiliated valuations and private budget constraints. For the sealed-bid, all-pay auction we characterize a symmetric equilibrium in continuous strategies for the case of N bidders. Budget constraints encourage more aggressive bidding among participants with large endowments and intermediate valuations. We extend our results to the war of attrition where we show that budget constraints lead to a uniform amplification of equilibrium bids among bidders with sufficient endowments. An example shows that with both interdependent valuations and private budget constraints, a revenue ranking between the two auction formats is generally not possible. Equilibria with discontinuous bidding strategies are discussed.     

我国财政可持续性的实证研究——基于1952～2006年数据的时间序列分析

改革开放以来,我国经济得到了快速的发展;与此同时,财政赤字也成为一种经常现象,并导致累积债务迅速增长,从而引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。本文从实证的角度利用协整检验的方法对我国的财政收支进行了研究。研究结果显示,我国的财政在1%的显著性水平是可持续的。这一结果表明:我国的财政不仅是可持续的,而且可持续的显著性水平较高。     

我国经济转轨期软预算约束与通货膨胀分析

本文采用我国1989～2009年经济转轨时期的数据,对联立方程模型参数进行了重新估计,估计结果显示预算软约束依然是通货膨胀产生的原因之一,但是转轨时期软预算约束正逐步向硬约束转变,这个转变对社会消费尤其是居民消费产生很大影响。然后对2009年以来的通货膨胀问题与软预算约束以及结构扭曲之间的关系进行了研究,研究发现这一轮的物价上涨与经济结构严重失衡有密切的关系,并且预算软约束的存在使财政赤字和国债负担扩大,给经济运行带来了隐患和风险。     

论我国公共预算听证的完善途径

预算事实上是平衡多方主体利益的一系列复杂的过程。作为预算资金的主要提供者——纳税人,对预算制定享有知情权、监督权,但在公共预算实际运行中,还存在着诸多问题。需要进一步探索解决,从而更好的发挥这一民主制度的效用。