Estimation of spot volatility with superposed noisy data

By using high frequency financial data, we nonparametrically estimate the spot volatility at any given time point, while the simultaneous presence of multiple transactions and market microstructure noise in the observation procedure are considered. Our estimator is based on the summation of the locally ranged increments, while kernel smoothing give us spot volatility. Besides, the microstructure noise can be estimated and removed, if it is modeled as bid-ask spread, which is a frequently used assumption. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established. We do some simulation studies to assess the finite sample performance of our estimator. The estimator is also applied to some real data sets, further, the relationship between multiple records and spot volatility is also explored.     

全流通影响了市场波动性吗-基于沪深股市的实证研究

股权分置已成为影响我国资本市场持续发展的一个重要因素。目前,我国的股权分置改革正全面铺开,以期实现资本市场的全流通。本文首先建立了考虑全流通预期的我国证券市场交易者策略模型,通过对波动性因素的分析得出了若干假设,从理论上推导出全流通对市场质量所可能产生的影响。然后以目前股权分置改革期中已完成股权分置改革的435家公司为样本对理论假设进行实证分析,发现全流通对市场波动性产生了一些影响。     

The liquidity of automated exchanges: new evidence from German Bund futures

Previous literature has suggested that automated exchanges such as the Deutsche Terminborse (DTB) may be less liquid than their open-outcry counterparts such as the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), although evidence provided on this issue has been mixed. This paper provides new evidence on the relative magnitudes of bid-ask spreads in the Bund contract traded on the DTB and LIFFE using intraday data from a period in which each exchanges share of total Bund trading was closer than previous research. The findings suggest that quoted bid-ask spreads are wider on the LIFFE than the DTB, even after controlling for their determinants. Furthermore, bid-ask spreads on the DTB increase more rapidly as price volatility increases relative to the LIFFE. Overall, this evidence implies that while automated exchanges are capable of providing more liquidity than floor traded exchanges, the relative performance of automated exchanges deteriorates during periods of higher volatility.     

Endogenous market statistics and security pricing:: An empirical investigation

This study examines empirically the degree to which the history of daytime and overnight price changes and order flow affects estimates of traders' beliefs about future security price changes. Estimates indicate that forecasts of the permanent component of price changes occurring after the open of trading are significantly related to past price changes and order flow; but the same is not generally true for price changes occurring after the close. These results are consistent with models of technical analysis, and models in which the process of trading facilitates price discovery. The evidence also suggests that private information is an important determinant of price movements.