Adaptation,mitigation and risk: An analytic approach

The adaptation vs. mitigation dilemma is considered by analyzing a simple dynamic model of managing a polluting process subject to the risk of abrupt occurrences of harmful events. The occurrence hazard can be mitigated by reducing the polluting emissions, while the occurrence damage can be controlled via investments in adaptation activities. A full dynamic characterization of the optimal mitigation/adaptation processes is presented. The adaptation and mitigation policies interact strongly, and the evolution in time of each is affected by the option to implement the other. The conditions under which adaptation investments should begin promptly, take place after some delay or be avoided altogether are derived in terms of some key model parameters.     

Systemic risk mitigation in financial networks

We propose a multi-period clearing framework, where the level of systemic risk is mitigated through the provision of liquidity assistance. The interbank liability network evolves stochastically over time, and assets of defaulted banks are sold to qualified banks within the network through a first-price sealed-bid auction. We find that policies targeting systemically important banks are more effective in core-periphery network structures, whereas those maximizing the total liquidity in the system are preferred in random network configurations. We assess sensitivity of systemic risk to variations in interbank liabilities as well as to their correlation structure.     

磁流变材料与装置在桥梁工程减隔震中的应用

介绍了磁流变液基本特性、组成及磁流变液的制备工艺。磁流变液属可控流体,是由非导磁性液体和均匀分散其中的微小软磁性颗粒混合而成的悬浮体。在零磁场条件下呈现出低粘度牛顿流体特性;在强磁场作用下,则可在毫秒级的时间内呈现出高粘度、低流动性的Bingham体特性。与电流变液相比,磁流变液具有励磁线圈工作电压低、剪切屈服强度高、对体内杂质温度等因素不敏感等优点。这使得由其制成的磁流变阻尼器在桥梁结构、建筑结构主动、半主动震动控制领域展现了很好的应用前景。考虑到经济性,目前,桥梁结构用磁流变阻尼器主要针对斜拉桥拉索减振及重要的多跨高墩连续梁桥。铁路简支钢桁梁桥也有应用。     

信用违约互换监管模式与信用风险缓释工具制度完善——对手方风险的防范

比较美国、欧盟等对信用违约互换（CDS）监管的最新动向：集中清算与中央对手方制度、保证金与信息透明要求、保险／准保险监管模式,结合我国信用风险缓释工具（CRM）试点的现有制度,分析在对手方风险防范制度上的差异与不足。具体指出我国集中清算制度上尚有不足;强制保证金制度的缺失不仅使保险机构存在政策套利的空间,还存在引发系统性风险的潜在危险;但在对市场的在信息披露方面,已经走在世界的前列。提出我国需要尽快明确上海清算所在CRM交易中最为主要的在登记、结算外的风险防控功能,通过资本计量的优惠规定等手段鼓励集中清算,制定强制的保证金要求,并严格限定保证金水平、担保品标准。     

电子商务中信用风险生成机理及防范策略研究

近年来,随着电子商务中欺诈事件的增多,诚信缺失问题日趋严重,由此引发的信用风险已成为严重阻碍电子商务良性发展的重要因素之一。针对这一问题,文中运用博弈论工具,系统地分析了电子商务中交易双方在完全信息以及不完全信息这两种情况下,信用风险的生成机理,识别出影响信用风险发生的关键因素。通过分析得出,对欺诈行为的惩罚力度、贴现因子以及声誉等因素会影响信用风险的发生概率,并且与其存在反向相关关系。这意味着在电子商务中,对欺诈行为的惩罚力度越大,贴现因子越大以及企业为提高其声誉所做的努力越大,则在交易中发生信用风险的概率越低。最后,在以上分析的基础上,文中针对性地提出信用风险的防范策略,包括：①发挥电子商务中介监督职能;②加大对欺诈行为的惩罚力度;③进一步完善相关法律法规;④构建信任的文化环境,增强交易双方的信任关系。     

信用风险缓释工具的经济意义及其发展建议

信用风险缓释工具(CRM)是中国金融体系通过金融创新、以市场手段管理信用风险的重要里程碑。与欧美国家的同类产品CDS相比,CRM有其独特性。本文首先介绍CRM及其交易,然后从金融创新、银行稳健性、债券市场发展、信用共担体系完善等方面阐述了CRM在推动中国金融市场深化方面的积极作用。最后,本文针对CRM市场发展中暴露出来的市场主体同质化、产品设计单一、定价机制不健全、监管问题提出了改进意见。     

Strategies to offset performance failures: The role of brand equity

In this research, we examine the role of brand equity as a strategy to offset the negative effects of a performance failure. Two independent studies, spanning four industries and involving 669 respondents are employed to investigate this issue. Results suggest that high brand equity leads to more favorable satisfaction evaluations and behavioral intentions than low brand equity. The brand equity effect is identified as a prevailing advantage that spans the entire failure and recovery sequence. This is an important finding because it implies that the advantages of high brand equity theoretically can apply to all failures, not just those for which recovery is attempted. Further inspection, however, reveals that despite the prevailing advantage, high-equity brand failures lead to a more drastic decline in customer evaluations immediately after the failure episode. Managerial implications and future research are addressed.     

Increasing agricultural productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions in sub‐Saharan Africa: myth or reality?

The motivation for this study stems from two major concerns that are interlinked. The first is the decades long food insecurity crisis faced by sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries which is still prevalent. The second is the negative impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture may have on future food production and which is likely to worsen the food insecurity problem. The conundrum SSA farmers face is how to increase food output through productivity growth while minimizing GHG emissions. To measure changes in productivity growth and GHG emissions, this study evaluates the agricultural performance of 18 SSA countries by utilizing the Malmquist–Luenberger index to incorporate good and bad outputs for the years 1980–2012. The empirical evidence demonstrates that productivity is overestimated when bad outputs are not considered in the production model. The analysis provides a better understanding of the effectiveness of previous mitigation methods and which informs an appropriate course of action needed to achieve the twin objectives of increasing agriculture productivity while reducing GHG emissions.     

Projected impacts of increased uptake of source control mitigation measures on agricultural diffuse pollution emissions to water and air

A multi-pollutant modelling framework for England and Wales is described. This includes emissions of nitrate, phosphorus and sediment to water and ammonia, methane and nitrous oxide to air, and has been used to characterise baseline (no uptake of on-farm measures) and business-as-usual (BAU) annual pollutant losses, comparing these with the loss under a range of new policies aimed at increasing the uptake of relevant source control measures to 95% across England and Wales. Model outputs, including uncertainty ranges, evaluated using national water and air quality data layers have been summarised at both farm (Robust Farm Type) and water management catchment (WMC) scale. Nationally, across all farm types, the median annual reductions in pollutant losses under the new scenario, relative to BAU in 2010, were predicted to range between 9 and 16% for nitrate, 13–37% for phosphorus, 12–21% for sediment, 2–57% for methane and 10–17% for nitrous oxide. For ammonia, the range was −2–28%, indicating the potential for pollution swapping and an increase in ammonia emissions under scenarios designed to reduce nitrogen flux to waters. Increased uptake of pollution source control measures would result in a wide range of annual total (capital and operational) costs (per farm) for the major farm types, with median estimates ranging from £635 yr⁻¹ (Less Favourable Areas (LFA) with grazing livestock) to £15,492 yr⁻¹ (Cereals) in Nitrate Vulnerable Zone (NVZ) areas, compared with a range of £23 yr⁻¹ to £13,484 yr⁻¹ for the same respective farm types in non-NVZ areas. The estimated median annual load reductions for all WMCs relative to BAU, were predicted to be 16% for nitrate, 20% for phosphorus, 16% for sediment, 16% for ammonia, 15% for methane and 18% for nitrous oxide. These predictions suggest that almost perfect (95% uptake) implementation of source control measures will not deliver substantial improvements in pollutant emissions.     

Are municipal land use plans keeping pace with global climate change?

Published research on municipal climate change plans to date has been strictly cross-sectional: it reveals the status of plans at particular points in time, but does not examine whether and how plans are evolving over time to keep pace with our understanding of climate change. We build on a 2011 study of plans in the Canadian province of British Columbia by examining updated versions of those plans as of 2015. We find that the climate change content in the plans did not change much from 2011-2015 and that there is much room for improvement. Our findings suggest that municipalities can possibly strengthen their plans by: (1) investing resources into creating and maintaining a detailed inventory of factual information regarding local climate risk and vulnerability, and (2) fostering political support among elected officials and residents for developing climate change planning goals and implementation mechanisms to help achieve the goals.