多配送中心单向车辆调度问题的模型与禁忌搜索算法的研究

在对无时间窗和软时间窗多配送中心单向车辆调度问题进行直观描述的基础上,分别建立了相应问题的数学模型。提出了直接解决多配送中心单向车辆调度问题的禁忌搜索算法,设计了求解多配送中心单向车辆调度问题的算法流程,并对已经存在的实例进行了实验计算。     

基于SVR-IPSO的高危行业企业安全投入优化模型及其改进——以煤炭生产企业为例

传统的安全投入模型对解决高危行业领域中模糊复杂的安全投入问题具有一定局限性,尤其当建立目标函数时,采用隐含线性关系假设的函数进行拟合会影响模型的推广能力。基于此,本文首先采用支持向量回归机（SVR）建立事故损失模型,与传统C-D函数拟合结果相比,该模型具有更好的预测能力;然后,以实际安全投入要求为约束,以安全总成本最小化为原则建立企业安全投入优化模型;最后,采用基于捕食搜索策略的粒子群算法对模型进行求解,同时,为保证全局收敛性,引入自适应控制策略对算法进行了改进。结果表明：该模型能够更加准确地描述安全投入与安全成本间的非线性作用关系,并通过粒子群寻优得到具备可行性的全局最优解,为高危行业企业安全投入结构优化提供新的决策思路。     

Entry and Technological Performance in New Technology Domains: Technological Opportunities,Technology Competition and Technological Relatedness

Entry and success in new technology domains (NTDs) is essential for firms' long‐term performance. We argue that firms' choices to enter NTDs and their subsequent performance in these domains are not only governed by firm‐level factors but also by environmental characteristics. Entry is encouraged by the richness of opportunities for technology development, while technology competition by incumbent firms discourages entry and render entries that do take place less successful. Firms are expected to be positioned heterogeneously to recognize and capitalize on technological opportunities, depending on the presence of a related technology base. We find qualified support for these conjectures in a longitudinal analysis of entry and technological performance in NTDs by 176 R&D intensive firms. While opportunity rich technology environments attract entries by firms even if these NTDs are distal from firms' existing technologies, firms require related technological expertise in order to exploit technological opportunities post‐entry.     

The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model

From the government's perspective, it is very important to estimate the growing path of the mobile Internet market and then to forecast the trend. The purpose of this paper is to propose a diffusion model that reveals the growth pattern of the mobile Internet subscriber in Taiwan utilizing the concepts of the “technical substitution” and the “multi-product competition”, which suits the characteristics in the mobile Internet market in Taiwan. From the regression results, the estimated ultimate market potential of GPRS is 6.4 million, which is going to saturate in about 2008Q1. On the other hand, the estimated range of the market potential of PHS/3G is about 7.2 to 8.0 million. That is, the total mobile Internet market in Taiwan is forecasted to be around 13.6 to 14.4 million subscribers.     

生产、库存、配送一体化系统研究

本文主要研究生产、库存、配送一体化复杂系统（ Integrated Production Inventory Distribution System,PID），系统中存在一个供应商和多个下游厂商。供应商生产若干种不同类型的产品，并通过第三方物流（3PL）对下游厂商进行配送。研究的目的在于决定供应商的生产计划以及配送计划，从而使得系统总费用最低。借助于禁忌搜索法．本文提出了求解问题的算法，并且给出了PID与按照订单生产模式的仿真结果的对比，从结果可以看出．PID在一定程度上确实能够降低系统总费用。     

Unpacking older drivers’ mobility at roundabouts: Their visual-motor coordination through driver–vehicle–environment interactions

While mobility and safety of older drivers are challenged by age-related cognitive changes, the increasingly complex road environment has placed a higher demand on their adaptability. Older drivers experience difficulties in regulating their operational level behaviors which rely on the second-to-second decision-making, e.g., using the visuospatial information to guide their steering. The roundabout maneuver is one of the critical scenarios for older drivers which requires efficient visual and motor coordination. Understanding older drivers’ visual-motor coordination at roundabouts will provide insights into the mobility and safety of older driver population, which is important yet to be explored. This paper contributes to new measurements in driving behavior through quantitative examinations on driver–vehicle–environment interactions. The drivers’ visual-motor coordination is conceptualized as a sequence of eye fixations coupling with the vehicle trajectory in a space–time path. The experimental data were from 38 older adults’ on-road driving recorded using context and location-aware enabled eye tracking and precise vehicle movement tracking. A visual-motor coordination composite indicator (VMCCI) was developed to measure the efficiency of visual-motor coordination in GIS based on the aggregate multiple parameters of visual and motor behaviors at entry, circulating and exit stage of a roundabout. The results show that the VMCCI is a sensitive indicator for identifying risky drivers, problematic road sections, problematic behaviors. Older drivers’ VMCCI was associated with the angle of deviation at roundabouts, particularly at the entry stage. Findings of this study have implications for actual roundabout designing practice, which will contribute to improve the safety of older drivers behind the wheel.     

战略联盟伙伴搜索、战略柔性与突破性创新的关系研究

战略联盟伙伴搜索打破了搜寻范围与知识结构对企业技术发展轨迹的束缚,是企业赢得竞争优势的重要来源。结合创新搜索理论和资源基础观,构建了战略联盟伙伴搜索、战略柔性与突破性创新的理论模型,研究发现:战略联盟伙伴搜索的不同维度对企业突破性创新均有显著正向影响;战略柔性对企业突破性创新有显著正向影响;战略柔性在战略联盟伙伴搜索和企业突破性创新之间起中介作用。     

Modelling labour market dynamics with on-the-job search

A flow model of the Dutch labour market is used to calculate the effects of policy options which aim to enhance employment, especially at the lower end of the labour market. The model distinguishes between good and bad jobs, allows for endogenous wage formation and job creation, and describes the flows between these jobs so that job-to-job mobility and the vacancy chain is made endogenous. In the matching process employed job seekers with bad jobs compete with short-term and long-term unemployed for the filling of vacancies for good jobs. In each period part of the good and bad jobs are destroyed which results in inflow into unemployment. The model explicitly describes the flow of unemployed through the various duration classes of unemployment and it allows for negative duration dependence so that the escape probability from unemployment for long-term unemployed is smaller than for short-term unemployed. The model is used to simulate the effects of external shocks, such as structural productivity shocks. An impulse response analysis using the model is also conducted considering labour market policies which aims especially to enhance employment at the lower end of the labour market. In particular, the effects are analysed of measures subsidising the opening of bad jobs (jobs at the lower end of the labour market) and a rise in the productivity of a bad job as compared to a good job which can be achieved by changes in the tax system.     

我国手机回收结构特征及其科技政策内涵分析——基于技术产品生命周期的视角

废旧手机回收构成电子废弃物回收政策研究的新课题。在我国,手机生命周期的相关企业中,手机维修商和二手手机商回收贡献突出,而手机厂商和手机拆解商贡献不足,形成了"橄榄型"结构特征。这种"橄榄型"结构凸显支撑我国废旧手机回收的科技政策乃至电子废弃物回收科技政策,应该区别于发达国家,应该节约资源与治理环境并重,应该重点促进旧手机等旧物回收再利用技术的创新和扩散。     

旅游移动商务服务平台构建模式研究

本文提出了一个旅游移动商务服务平台模式的框架,并对其服务功能进行了分析,主要包括前台客户端服务和后台管理功能两大块。对平台的各主要参与方的操作流程也进行了分析与设计,最后为我国旅游移动商务服务平台的建设提出了一些建议与展望。