Value at risk forecasting for volatility index

Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error.     

Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

创新驱动 推进转型 全面加快现代银行建设步伐

深化农村信用社改革以来,吉林省农村信用社不断增加涉农贷款投放规模,扩大农户贷款覆盖面,推进金融产品和服务创新,从而全面提升了支农服务水平。2012年,是"十二五"承上启下的重要一年,农村信用社积极推进产权改革、提升经营管理层次、不断提高发展质量、防范金融风险,这对促进吉林省经济社会发展具有十分重要的意义。     

金融发展与城乡收入分配的库兹涅茨效应研究——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

金融发展可度量为金融-规模、金融-活动和金融*效率三个主要指标.利用OLS和GMM回归、面板单位根、协整和因果关系检验对中国金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间的关系进行检验后得知: (1)金融发展和城乡收入差距之间存在着库兹涅茨效应,即所谓的倒U关系. (2)中国金融发展规模显著拉大了城乡收入差距,但加强农业贷款对农民收入增长取得了显著作用,会缩小城乡收入差距;金融发展效率的提高有助于城乡收入差距的缩小. (3)金融发展水平与城乡收入分配之间存在长期的均衡关系;金融发展规模、农村信贷与城乡收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,金融发展效率与城乡收入分配之间存在双向因果关系.     

经济增长、收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响

文章利用了基于Lorenz曲线进行贫困测度及其分解的方法,实证研究了1985～2003年中国农村的贫困变动,以及经济增长和收入分配对贫困变动的影响.结果表明,经济增长使农村居民收入增加,大幅度减少了贫困,但农村居民的收入差距逐渐拉大,收入不平等加剧部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫成效.     

与收入相关的健康不平等的动态变化与分解——以我国中老年群体为例

本文首先创新性地将衡量健康不平等的Erreygers指数分解为收入增长效应、收入分布效应、收入流动效应和人群老化效应;然后采用2011年和2013年两期CHARLS基线调查微观数据,以中老年群体为研究对象,通过混合区间回归模型估计健康与收入和非收入变量的关系;在此基础上得到全样本和各特征人群的Erreygers指数,并对与收入相关的健康不平等的动态变化进行分解。结果表明:(1)中老年群体存在亲富的健康不平等,且亲富程度正在加剧;女性和沿海农村地区人群的健康不平等程度相对较高;(2)健康不平等问题的加剧主要源于收入增长效应和收入分布效应,收入流动效应可在一定程度上缓解健康不平等程度,人群老化效应的缓解作用则相当微弱;(3)与农村的负向效应不同,城市人群的收入增长效应和收入流动效应均在不同程度上加剧了健康的亲富不平等。     

通过加总推出的总供给曲线

总供给曲线的推导是宏观经济学中的最重要内容之一。在大多数宏观经济模型中 ,在推导总供给曲线时 ,加总问题 (aggregationproblem)往往被忽略。一般认为 ,总供给曲线是各企业供给曲线的简单算术和或是一个代表性企业供给曲线的简单放大。但是 ,在现实中 ,各个企业是不同的。只有在非常严格的条件下 ,总供给曲线与企业供给曲线在性质上才是等价的。考虑到中国经济的制度性特点并在解决加总的一系列技术问题的基础上 ,本文推导出了在企业劳动生产率服从均匀分布情况下的总供给曲线。通过这种方法推出的总供给曲线具有许多传统总供给曲线所不具有的新性质。笔者希望本文能为进一步研究处于微观经济和宏观经济之间的往往被忽视的一块重要领域 (“中观经济领域”)做出贡献。     

上市公司股利分配现状及对策研究

本文分析了我国上市公司股利分配的现状及存在的主要问题,并深入地剖析了这些问题产生的原因。在此基础上,从内部规范和外部规范两个方面提出改进我国上市公司股利分配的对策,以其对发展与完善我国资本市场提供帮助。     

基于博弈论的制造商分销渠道设计研究

分销渠道设计是渠道管理的前提,科学合理的分销渠道设计会给营销渠道管理工作减轻相应的负担。该文从制造商的角度出发,建立了渠道设计中制造商与中间商的博弈模型,并在此基础上提出制造商在渠道选择中应采取的相应策略。     

China's health care reform: A tentative assessment

China has recently unveiled an ambitious new health-care reform plan, entailing a doubling of government health spending as well as a number of concrete reforms. While the details of the plan have not yet been completely announced, we offer a preliminary assessment of how well the reform is likely to achieve its stated goal of assuring every citizen equal access to affordable basic health care. The reform is based on three fundamental tenets: strong role of government in health, commitment to equity, and willingness to experiment with regulated market approaches. Within this framework, the reform offers a number of laudable changes to the health system, including an increase in public health financing, an expansion of primary health facilities and an increase in subsidies to achieve universal insurance coverage. However, it fails to address the root causes of the wastes and inefficiencies plaguing China's health care system, such as a fragmented delivery system and provider incentives to over-provide expensive tests and services. We conclude that China should consider changing the provider payment method from fee-for-service to a prospective payment method such as DRG or capitation with pay-for-performance, and to develop purchasing agencies that represent the interests of the population so as to enhance competition.