A Partially Observed Model for Micromovement of Asset Prices with Bayes Estimation via Filtering

A general micromovement model that describes transactional price behavior is proposed. The model ties the sample characteristics of micromovement and macromovement in a consistent manner. An important feature of the model is that it can be transformed to a filtering problem with counting process observations. Consequently, the complete information of price and trading time is captured and then utilized in Bayes estimation via filtering for the parameters. The filtering equations are derived. A theorem on the convergence of conditional expectation of the model is proved. A consistent recursive algorithm is constructed via the Markov chain approximation method to compute the approximate posterior and then the Bayes estimates. A simplified model and its recursive algorithm are presented in detail. Simulations show that the computed Bayes estimates converge to their true values. The algorithm is applied to one month of intraday transaction prices for Microsoft and the Bayes estimates are obtained.     

The life-length of banknotes*

Abstract With the aid of the Bank's banknote sorting system the issue and subsequent withdrawal of f 25–banknotes on three varieties of paper have been recorded for two-and-a-half years. The aim was to measure the durability of the three paper varieties in circulation. The results of this second trial with f 25–banknotes confirm the statistical model developed previously for the first trial with f 100–banknotes. GRESHAM's Law is equally not applicable, neither to f 25–banknotes nor to f 100–banknotes. A two-parameter gamma distribution fits the cumulative fraction of banknotes withdrawn reasonably well.     

Statistical properties of returns: Financial assets versus commercial real estate

This study examines the distribution of commercial real estate returns by region (east, midwest, south, and west), by property type (office, retail, R&D office, and warehouse) and in the aggregate, and compares their distributions to those of financial assets. Nominal and real returns are examined for quarterly, semiannual, and annual periods. The quarterly nominal returns on the financial assets are mostly normal with very little indication of autocorrelation. In contrast, non-normality and autocorrelation are present in most of the nominal quarterly real estate series. The non-normality is greatly reduced when semiannual or annual returns are considered or when the quarterly series are corrected for autocorrelation. The non-normality is also lower for real returns than it is for nominal returns.     

海岛产业发展及布局的国际案例及借鉴——以长岛县为例

论文从分析长岛县海岛产业的发展现状入手。然后,分析了全球海洋产业的发展趋势-"四高"倾向以及产业结构调整、港口经济迅速发展等。最后,通过分析国内外海岛产业发展的成功经验,提出了长岛县开发的几点有益借鉴,包括:1)渔业要向品牌、高效、生态方向发展,完善渔业法规条例以及制定发展计划;2)发展特色工业,重点发展海洋水产加工业;3)实施旅游精品战略以及改善交通条件和规划旅游地产开发;4)政府要重视海岛开发前后角色转变,制定科学规划以及平衡开发与保护。     

绩效与不足:民国时期现代农业金融与农村社会之关系

民国时期，现代农业金融从无到有，初步形成了一个垂直的贷款网络体系。它与农村社会的关系具有和谐与紧张的两重性，它是中国乡村借贷关系转型与现代化的重要标志，对于改变高利贷一统天下的格局，促进乡村金融流通，救济贫苦农民，刺激生产经营都起到了一定程度的作用。但也不能不承认，它还远未形成一个有效的借贷系统，距离农民借贷的需求还很遥远，传统借贷向现代金融的转轨之路还很长。     

我国纤维板生产发展概况及产能分布

简述了我国纤维板生产发展状况和生产能力的分布情况。指出自2003年起中国已超过美国成为世界第一大人造板生产国,其中中密纤维板增长速度最快,2007年纤维板总生产线达到598条,生产能力2620万m3,2007年超过100万m3的有山东、广东等10省区。因原料、资金和市场等因素,华东和华南地区纤维板生产发达活跃,人造板工业分布极不均衡形成东强西弱格局。     

黑龙江省产三岛柴胡Bupleurum falcatum的生物学性状

描述了黑龙江省产柴胡属植物Bupleurumfalcatum的生物学性状,并从解剖学和生态学角度对该类群与近缘种进行了比较。     

五大连池火山区土壤和植被分布与特征

根据五大连池火山区独特的火山地貌及其生态条件,研究了新期火山与石龙熔岩台地、老期火山与盾状和坡状熔岩台地、河溪低地、湖泡河溪水域区的土壤和植被类别分布与特征;提出了土壤和植被的发生演化生态系列。     

基于发展权与功能损失的农村宅基地流转增值收益分配研究——以义乌市“集地券”为例

研究目的:从宅基地流转功能损失角度构建增值收益分配模型,探寻基于土地发展权的宅基地流转增值收益分配方法。研究方法:综合分析法,模型测算法,实证分析法。研究结果:义乌市制定的"集地券"流转模式的实质是运用市场机制实现土地发展权空间转移,通过"集地券"形式获得的宅基地增值收益约为1152元/m2;宅基地流转过程中,政府应补偿宅基地居住保障、社会保障以及文化服务功能价值损失,约为234元/m2;基于发展权和功能损失角度,义乌市政府、村集体和农民分享宅基地流转增值收益的比例为40∶11∶49。研究结论:建立在基准地价基础上对宅基地的土地发展权价值进行分配,并结合宅基地功能损失补偿农民体现公平原则,也接近地方政策规定及实际分配比例,符合建立兼顾国家、集体、个人的土地增值收益分配机制的改革方向。