转基因标签的消费者维度思考

本文从消费者角度分析了现行转基因标签政策实施过程中存在的成本转移、道德风险等等被忽视的问题．并以我国包装大豆色拉油市场为例，利用垂直差别化模型对加贴转基因标签前后消费者经济福利进行了比较。     

Evergreening in banking

In the dynamic model of banking, a bank's option to hide its loan losses by rolling over non-performing loans is shown to worsen moral hazard. Contrary to the classic theory, moral hazard may arise even when a bank cannot seek a correlated risk for its loans. The loans seem to be performing and the bank makes a profit although it is de facto insolvent. When the bank's balance sheet includes hidden non-performing loans, the bank may optimally shrink lending or gamble for resurrection by growing aggressively. To eliminate this type of moral hazard, which is broadly consistent with evidence from emerging economies, a few regulatory implications are suggested.     

Asian Financial Crisis.Prologue and the Case of Thailand

We suggest that the Asian financial crisis began because of theinconsistent exchange rate system and miss-management within Thailand. We showthat prior tothe Asian financial crisis the Thai Baht against the Yen followed the theoryofpurchasing power parity but the Baht against the U.S. Dollar did not. We givebriefsummaries of the papers included in this issue.     

WHITHER CONSUMER PROTECTION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS? LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1857

Consumer protection regulation has not prevented a collapse of trust in financial markets. Theories underlying regulatory intervention require review. In the financial crisis of 1857, firms rather than public authorities restored consumer confidence. Future regulatory regimes may permit greater scope for market-based design of consumer protection measures.     

投桃何以报李:企业内外部社会责任对管家行为的影响机制研究

当员工感知到企业的善行,即企业善待员工或是积极履行对外部利益相关者的责任,是否会激发员工"舍己为公"的行为倾向,使其为了保护组织长远利益而牺牲个人短期利益呢?本研究依据社会交换和社会认同理论,通过524份有效样本进行实证分析,探讨员工感知的企业社会责任对"舍己为公"的管家行为的作用机制。结果表明,员工感知的内部和外部企业社会责任均正向影响员工的管家行为。责任知觉和道德认同分别在员工感知的内部企业社会责任与管家行为、员工感知的外部企业社会责任与管家行为间起中介作用,且责任知觉和道德认同的中介作用没有显著差异。     

A practical solution to the problem of ultimate ruin probability

Abstract

It was the Swiss actuary Chr. Moser who, in lectures at Bern University at the turn of the century, gave the name “self-renewing aggregate” to what Vajda (1947) has called the “unstationary community” of lives, namely where deaths at any epoch are immediately replaced by an equivalent number of births. It was Moser too (1926) who coined the expression “steady state” for the stationary community in which the age distribution at any time follows the life table (King, 1887). With such a distinguished actuarial history, excellently summarized by Saxer (1958, Ch. IV), it behoves every actuary to know at least the definitions and modus operandi of today's so-called renewal (point), or recurrent event, processes.     

Predicting bankruptcy using the discrete-time semiparametric hazard model

The usual bankruptcy prediction models are based on single-period data from firms. These models ignore the fact that the characteristics of firms change through time, and thus they may suffer from a loss of predictive power. In recent years, a discrete-time parametric hazard model has been proposed for bankruptcy prediction using panel data from firms. This model has been demonstrated by many examples to be more powerful than the traditional models. In this paper, we propose an extension of this approach allowing for a more flexible choice of hazard function. The new method does not require the assumption of a parametric model for the hazard function. In addition, it also provides a tool for checking the adequacy of the parametric model, if necessary. We use real panel datasets to illustrate the proposed method. The empirical results confirm that the new model compares favorably with the well-known discrete-time parametric hazard model.