“天赋异禀”、“熟能生巧”还是“日久生情”*——基于中国证券分析师预测能力的经验证据

本文选取2001—2013年证券分析师的预测数据作为研究样本,研究证券分析师的预测能力随时间变化的现象及机理。实证检验表明：（1）分析师的预测能力随着经验积累而显著提高;（2）“新财富”最佳分析师较之于一般分析师并未表现出更强的预测能力（即并不存在“天赋异禀”）;（3）证券分析师预测能力随经验积累而提高并非由于研究能力的提升（即“熟能生巧”）,而是通过所在证券公司的平台与所跟进的公司建立了良好的合作关系（即“日久生情”）。本文不仅丰富了关于影响证券分析师预测能力因素的相关实证研究,同时创造性地进一步剖析了证券分析师预测能力随经验积累提高的内在机理,其结论对于理解分析师学习成长机制、促进中小投资者保护以及推动中国证券市场理性发展具有重要意义。     

社会资本对企业员工创新行为的影响

知识经济时代,创新是企业可持续发展的战略选择。社会资本作为一种社会结构性资源,通过知识分享在员工创新过程中产生溢出效应。以信任和知识共享为中介变量,以创新动机为调节变量,构建社会资本对企业员工创新行为的影响模型,并提出研究假设。通过对成都高新区软件园5家电子信息企业员工进行问卷调查,共收集443份有效问卷,采用SPSS22.0软件对样本数据进行中介和调节效应分析。结果显示：社会资本的3个维度（结构维度、关系维度和认知维度）均显著影响员工创新行为;信任在认知维度社会资本和员工创新之间具有完全中介作用,分别在结构维度、关系维度社会资本和员工创新行为之间具有部分中介作用;知识共享分别在结构维度、认知维度社会资本和员工创新行为之间具有完全中介作用,在关系维度社会资本和员工创新行为之间具有部分中介作用。此外,创新动机对员工创新行为影响的主效应显著,但对知识共享、信任与员工创新行为之间的调节效应不显著。     

The 21st Century Cures Act: pharmacoeconomic boon or bane?

Barriers to entry in healthcare markets constitute one of the overriding concerns of health economists. The recent enactment of the 21st Century Cures Act in the United States reduces statutory entry barriers to the discovery, development, testing, and licensing of drugs and medical devices. Drug and device makers also see the burdensome and time-consuming requirements of the Food and Drug Administration?s approval process as key barriers to lowering the costs of their products, considering it takes a decade of research amounting to $1 billion just to bring a single drug to the market. Along with novel opportunities for medical product innovation and faster treatment of diseases, the expedited approval process carries with it contentious challenges involving the safety, efficacy and value of drugs and devices. The ensuing trade-offs and unintended consequences of such a regulatory game-changer bring to the fore one of the most enduring debates between medicine and economics: Whether – or to what extent – cost and efficiency factors affect clinical inquiry into possible solutions to human illnesses. The practical and theoretical contributions of pharmacoeconomics should enlighten contemporary and future issues and discussions surrounding the implementation of this landmark legislation. After all, despite its undeniably good intent and far-reaching significance, no law can ever be perfect.     

FARMERS’ WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICE PROVISION: DOES TRUST MATTER?

Ecosystem service provision in agriculture may require cooperation between farmers. Trust fosters cooperation in many economic and social interactions and is important to the success of traditional agricultural cooperatives. Little is known about how trust affects farmers’ willingness to cooperate to provide an ecosystem service, what types of trust are most important, and under what conditions trust may matter. In this study, we present results of a survey of Missouri crop farmers exploring the role trust plays in farmers’ stated willingness to cooperate to control pests. We find that most farmers say they are willing to cooperate, and most farmers are willing to trust others. However, we find little evidence that trust positively influences farmers’ willingness to cooperate to control pests. Instead, we find that trust may only matter under certain conditions, such as when participants’ farms are dissimilar, and that other determinants, such as the perceived benefit of cooperation and environmental concern, are more important than trust to farmers who are contemplating cooperation to control pests.     

Disposition Effect and Tolerance to Losses in Stock Investment Decisions: An Experimental Study

This study aims to verify whether people tolerate losses within the self-established limit through an experimental methodological procedure. In addition, it aims to analyze the decision behavior in terms of the time they take to realize gains and losses, as a way to test the manifestation of the disposition effect. The experiment consists in decision to sell stock from 4 companies, 2 with potentially negative returns and 2 with positive returns. The participants demonstrated that they accept more losses than they had attested they would bear in advance and manifested the typical disposition effect, under which people sell the winning stock earlier than the losing stock. There was no difference between men and women in the manifestation of the disposition effect, and women performed worse because they had established lower bearable losses and higher required gains in advance.     

"送猪崽"与"折现金":我国产业精准扶贫的路径分析与政策模拟研究

产业扶贫旨在将贫困户的生产活动纳入社会产业大循环,因此其一直是全世界扶贫工作的重要方式和主要目标之一.我国产业精准扶贫出现了两条新路径:一是GTP路径,即向贫困户送猪崽、鸡苗和良种等资本,直接将贫困户的生产纳入当地的产业体系;二是GSP路径,即将扶贫资金折合现金并由贫困户自己决定投资项目和选择产业.文章构建了包括贫困户和非贫困户的微观主体行为模型以及基于农村公平和效率的农村福利模型,分别研究了这两条新路径上贫困户福利和农村福利的动态演变过程,然后使用系统动力学模型进行了政策模拟,拟探索出我国产业精准扶贫的最优路径及其政策支持空间.结果显示:在第3~4年的时间内,GSP路径要优于GTP,但是超过4年,GTP路径上的贫困户福利和农村福利就会累进性超过GSP.而且,在GTP路径上的时间越长,扶贫效果就越好.在中长期,提高贫困户的技术水平,增加贫困户的初始资本额是进一步提高GTP路径上贫困户福利和农村福利水平的重要环节.文章的结论对于提高我国精准扶贫的理论自信,进一步完善我国产业精准扶贫政策体系具有一定的启示.     

状态观及过程观视域下组织变革准备研究综述与展望

变革准备是组织成员关于组织变革必要性、组织变革能力等方面的信念、态度和意图,是评价组织成员（个体或群体）变革反应的重要指标,其理论基础包括变革干预理论和动态能力理论。研究发现,自我概念、风险态度、学习动机、智商等个体因素,以及领导、沟通、组织氛围等情境因素都会影响变革准备,而变革准备直接影响员工变革意愿与变革行为,进而对组织效能产生影响。目前,变革准备研究还未形成独特的研究路径,也不足以为理论系统化提供支持,未来研究还需对变革准备的影响因素、维度结构、测量工具及内在认知机制等开展进一步探讨。     

Resource conflict in Kenya’s titanium mining industry: Ethno-ecology and the redefinition of ownership,control, and compensation

The literature on community-mining enterprise conflict is currently dominated by discourses on equity, compensation, land ownership, and environmental degradation. While much debate has dwelled on whether mining is a curse or a blessing, little attention has been given to highlight the meanings that communities attach to the assets being fought over, and the need therefore to review existing laws on mining, and practices to reflect these realities.

The displacement of over 3000 residents in Kwale, Kenya to make way for the mining of titanium has raised serious concerns over indigenous resource ownership and control in Kenya’s mining industry, calling for a fresh look at the Kenyan mining law. Using an ethno-ecological approach, this article explains how a community’s loss of land assets can induce a sense of vulnerability which can prefigure conflict. The conflict demonstrates the need for a more sensitive approach to community resource ownership and indigenous mineral control.     

International responses to homelessness: Lessons for the City of Tshwane

ABSTRACT

Reports of increases in the numbers of homeless people are pouring in from all over the world yet many governments still do not consider homelessness worthy of a policy response in its own right and relegate it to the periphery of either housing or social (welfare) policy arenas and interventions. In the introductory sections of this article, reference is made to the current extent of homelessness in the world and the rise to prominence of a rights-based approach to homelessness. This is followed by a brief overview of responses to homelessness in Australia, the USA and some European countries. A few of the key components of these responses and their relevance for homelessness policies in South Africa and the City of Tshwane are identified.     

Measuring heterogeneity in the returns to education using an education reform

In this paper, we explore the impact of a mandatory education reform as well as pre-reform availability of schools above the mandatory level, on educational attainment and returns to education in Norway. We contribute to the existing literature by focusing on the heterogeneity of the impact of reforms. Our results indicate that increased compulsory education from seven to nine years increased the general level of education beyond the compulsory education. We also find that the effect of family background on educational attainment was weaker after the reform. The average treatment effect on returns to education is surprisingly high for education of intermediate duration. This means that increasing the general level of education potentially generates high returns in the form of wages. We also find that the effect of treatment on the treated on the returns to education is 1-4 percentage points higher than the average treatment effect.