项目投资决策评价指标研究

企业进行项目投资必须对项目进行可行性分析与评价,其使用的评价指标方法在不考虑风险因素的情况下,主要有静态投资评价法和动态投资评价法,文章介绍了5种评价方法,并且分析了每种评价方法的适用情况,得出净现值法为一般项目投资的最优方法的结论。     

基于净现值指标的概率分析研究

研究了经济评价中的概率分析问题。在敏感性分析的基础上,对主要评价指标—项目净现值的概率分析引用了一种新的方法,实例表明该方法简单可行,为项目经济评价工作提供了新的思路。     

The derivation of the NPV variance of a risky capital investment project with first-order autoregressive cash flows and autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic variances

In this article, the authors develop a closed-form solution for assessing the capital investment project NPV variance when cash flows obey a first-order autoregressive process. A distinction is established between static and dynamic solutions as the authors focus on the case involving partial positive dependence between cash flows. Under a Markovian process, the NPV solution is stationary in mean but not strictly in variance. Constraining the process to become fully stationary will overestimate the NPV variance. Finally, the authors show that the Markovian NPV variance closed-form solution is robust to the introduction of autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic variances complying with a GARCH(1,1) process; it will, however, have its value increased and consequently the riskiness of the capital investment project.     

实物期权在风险投资项目中的应用

在风险投资决策中,传统的方法是采用净现值（NPV）法,用NPV值的大小衡量项目的价值和接受的程度。但这种方法存在不利于方案的选择和优化的缺陷。基于此,本文将对传统风险投资决策方法的缺陷进行分析,并在此基础上引入实物期权理论的风险投资决策模型。     

净现值与内部收益率法的比较分析研究

在进行投资项目比选时,使用净现值与内部收益率指标,有时会出现排序矛盾。本文就产生矛盾的原因进行了深入的比较分析,说明了这两个指标的经济含义,计算时的假设前提不同,使用条件有别,并依据增量法原则,给出了克服排序矛盾的有效方法。     

Achieving low-cost UMTS networks via pricing

One of the main concerns of mobile operators towards deployment of Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) networks is the investment cost. The costly radio access network, based on the network equipment required in a service area, prevents incumbents and new entrants from upgrading or building a new UMTS network. In this article, a novel, low-cost approach to the UMTS radio access network design is proposed. The approach employs the use of pricing incentives. This approach is based on the assumption that a pricing mechanism is in place to control excessive traffic load during peak periods. By incorporating this assumption into the network design, the network designer is able to relax certain design parameters, which may contribute to significant savings in equipment cost. Investigation is focused on the UMTS coverage and capacity planning, using the Net Present Value (NPV) financial analysis. For certain price-sensitivity levels, the analysis indicates that this approach provides a suitable strategy for mobile operators to comfortably move forward with UMTS upgrade and gain competitive edge in the wireless market.     

Excel在投资项目概率分析中的应用

当前绝大多数财务评价分析者不会编程且仅熟悉Excel的基本应用,所以在财务评价中较少作概率分析,从而严重影响了投资项目财务评价质量。探讨如何使不会编程的财务分析者利用Excel进行投资项目的概率分析。给出概率的一般过程;常见分布函数随机数产生的过程及其在Excel中的具体实现方式;结合案例演示了Excel在概率分析中的具体运用及其处理技巧。该应用方法能使大多数的财务评价分析人员能够进行投资项目的概率分析,提高项目财务评价的质量。     

北京市住房市场泡沫实证研究 ----基于投资视角

将住房购买视作旨在解决自住问题的一项长期投资,通过现金流净现值、溢价率、内部收益率等指标的计算来考察一个地区住房市场是否存在泡沫及其程度。以2009年3-5月易居网上发布的二手住房出售、出租数据为基础,应用上述方法对北京市朝阳、崇文、东城、丰台、海淀、石景山、西城、宣武等8个城区住房市场研究表明,这8个城区住房市场均不同程度地存在泡沫。     

基于二叉树期权定价模型的房地产投资决策分析研究

将实物期权理论引入房地产投资决策过程中,分析了传统DCF法存在的缺陷和房地产投资的期权特性,建立了房地产投资项目的二叉树期权定价模型,并对该模型在实际投资中进行了案例分析。     

NPV与IRR在项目评估中的实证分析

本文针对项目评估中的净现值 (NPV)和内部收益率 (IRR)开展分析讨论。首先阐述了NPV和IRR的涵义、特点 ;然后通过比较 ,得出两者在投资项目评价中的优越性和局限性 ,并提出两者同时对多种互斥方案评价时可能出现评价结果不一致问题的解决方法。通过实例分析 ,总结出了NPV、IRR和增量内部收益率 (ΔIRR)对项目评价时使用的条件和它们之间的相互关系。